See also

• QF32 Biomimicry
• Richard Hammond’s Miracles Of Nature

Biomimicry

You don’t have to be a dog lover to be awe struck by this fantastic video of dogs shaking themselves dry.   Their seemingly simply movements generate up to 70 G accelerations that “centrifuge” the hair 70% dry in just a few seconds.

(Photo http://www.shakethebook.com/)

Why is the QF32 technical blog referencing canine dynamics?

Because the dynamics of dogs’ shaking involves theories of resonance, damping, and (aero) elasticity in three axes.  Dog shaking has relevance to:

• Airbus A330’s and A340’s TURBulence damping switch,
• Airbus A380’s Dance of the Ailerons (QF32 page 129), and
• Thoraces and insect flight.

I’ll address human’s  bio-mimicry of the dog-shake later.  Impatient techies who want more should read my earlier post A380s, Storm Petrels & Super Sonic Cars, in particular the paragraph headed “Last of the Four Engines”.

For thee rest of us, just marvel at the video!

(Image: Richard de Crespigny)

Stop Press – Thursday 28 November

The evening was a great success with my son Alexander and I meeting over 120 engineering students and 180 RAeS members.

Everyone was especially pleased to met and hear Carolyn and Derwyn Jones, passengers on the QF32 flight who also addressed the audience.   Their daughter Nia Jones joined them.  Like me, Nia is also  a great supporter of Open Disclosure.  Nia tells a great story that explains how Open Disclosure prevents litigation in the medical industry.

“one pigeon” Trinty College Clock. (Photo: Trinity College)

Alexander  and I thank everyone for a long but great evening.

It was a great honour for Alex and I to be shown around Trinity College the following morning by Dr Hugh Hunt.   We spent an hour studying then rewinding the famous Trinity College Clock (187 years old that now maintains time to milli-second accuracy), then sat with students for breakfast under watchful eyes in the portraits of King Henry VIII and Isaac Newton.

We wish the engineering students every success with their studies.

Below is a photo of me with (future pilot) Ahmed Pandor.

Ahmed Pandor (Photo: Ahmed Pandor)

RAeS – Wednesday 27th November 2013

I will discuss my story of the QF32 book (event) at a special meeting of the Royal Aeronautical Society (RAeS) in Cambridge on the evening of Wednesday 27 November 2013.

Details at:

• http://aerosociety.com/Events/Event-List/1309/Qantas-Flight-32-The-Airbus-A380-Engine-Failure …
• http://www.cambridgeraes.info/lectures.htm

Flight (Love) by the Mode Control Panel light (Photo: Richard de Crespigny. Title courtesy Meatloaf)

Happy Birthday Powered Flight!

First canard design? (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

Today, the 17th December 2013 marks the recognition of 110 remarkable years of revolutionary technology, intrepid exploration and inspirational leaders who (in Bert Hinkler’s words) have “flown the ships off the oceans”.

It’s 110 years today since Wilbur Wright flew the Wright Flier for 12 seconds, flying just 36 metres (half the A380’s wingspan), watched by brother Orville and sister Katherine and NO press.  (Katherine was probably the third person and first women to fly a powered aircraft.)

Impatient (but  wonderfully dutiful wife) Coral in front of the Wright Flier at the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum at Washington (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

… a most basic cockpit. Roll control via wing twisting …. (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

It’s 110 years since the first powered flight, 109 years since Rolls-Royce produced their first car, 44 years since Neil Armstrong landed on the moon and 34 years since the first commercial fly by wire aircraft (Concorde) took to the skies.

It’s 110 years of contributions by my forebears, uncles, father, son – and your forebears.

High technology in an industry that boasts the world’s best safety systems and safety records.

Follow your passion Sam Harris, work hard, reach for the stars and come fly with me! (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Thank you to the inspired and inspirational who have achieved (I think) the most remarkable and impossible! We should all be so very proud of our team efforts!

A view through the Head Up Display in the A380 simulator at Airbus in Toulouse. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Read this great summary from The Australian Newspaper  21 Dec 2013

Torched rays from the sunrise from behind us at 38,000 feet, illuminating the path in front of us over the Pacific Ocean this morning (13 January 2014).  (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Flying IS the sport of kings.   Guiding 500 passengers and manipulating $400m worth of the highest technology through congested airspace to the other side of the planet is a privilege that few experience.

Sunrise eastbound across the Pacific 13 Jan 2014 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

I’ve just returned from a great flight over the weekend from Sydney to Los Angeles.   I took the photo above yesterday morning as the sun rose behind my aircraft, slowly lowering the Earth’s shadow in front of us like a curtain lowers in a theatre, whilst a kaleidoscope of blue, green and orange Torch rays illuminated the higher level cirrus clouds.    It does not get more beautiful than this!

Whilst pondering this majestic Torched beauty, I reflected on how much aviation has changed the world over the last 100 years.  Many of our passengers had flown from Sydney to Los Angeles for the weekend – for a party.   One hundred years ago this trip by ship would have taken months and cost a year’s average income.   Fifty years ago this trip would have taken a week in vomit infused propellor aircraft that flew slowly at low altitudes whilst bumping along (without radar) trying to dodge thunderstorms.    Today the return flight takes just one day in comfort – flying above the clouds and weather with not even enough time for the passengers to sample all the wines and watch all the premier inflight movies!

We have become accustomed to jet travel.     The industry’s remarkable safety and on-time performance provides such confidence that few travellers appreciate the risks when flying as fast as a bullet 75% into space.    Sure, a few tech heads still marvel at how the 569 tonne A380 ever manages to lift off from the shorter Los Angeles runway (24 left) with a tailwind whilst observing the lighter jumbos using the longer (25 left) runway.   For the majority though, we expect the velvet ride that comes from the A380’s fly-by-wire “dance of the ailerons and rudders” and the quiet (72 decibel) cabin noise as the new standard.

Aviation Torches have been burning for 110 years.     The Olympic Torch of fire symbolises the theft of fire from the Greek god Zeus.  So the Torch Relay displays superiority, power and pride.   Such is the case for aviation that has connected, converged and flattened  the world last century just as dramatically as the steam train connected countries in the 1800s and the internet connects everyone today.  

Pilots, engineers and entrepreneurs carried multiple aviation Torches.    Only 66 years elapsed between the first flight of the Wright Flier to the first man landing on the moon.   When one Torch Relay closes, another starts somewhere else.

What were our great Torch Relays?  What Torches are we relaying today?  And what Relays lies ahead?

Sydney – Los Angeles – Friday 10 January 2013

This photo was taken last Saturday as we winged our way from Sydney to Los Angeles.   We approached the Californian coastline from the west, overflying Ventura and Santa Barbara.  The cockpit is setup with Autopilot 2 and “Heading” mode engaged, banking the A380 right (currently passing the heading of 035 degrees) onto our selected heading of 075 degrees to follow the coast southwards  towards Santa Monica.

The A380 normally banks at a rate of less than two degrees per second.  Our vestibular systems cannot sense roll rates below two degrees per second, so our passengers are oblivious to us turning and banking the A380 along the approach path – indeed they perceive that we are flying straight.

0809 am crossing the Californian coast north of Ventura.  This high resolution (4,000 x 3,000) photo may be expanded-printed to almost any size.   (Photo R de Crespigny)

Geoff Sheppard is flying.   Geoff has been a life long friend since our earliest days in the RAAF that stretch back to 1975.

Two pilots in the front seats, two relief pilots monitoring us from behind, steering more than 500 passengers and cabin crew back down to Earth, covered by a couple of billion dollars of insurance.

Geoff’s selected a descent rate (vertical speed) of 800 feet per minute as we descended though 18,200 feet on our way down to 16,000 feet.   We have slowed to an indicated airspeed of 310 knots (574 kmph) and a ground speed of 398 knots (736 kmph).

We are passing through the USA transition level where we change the three altimeters’ setting from a “STD” or “standard atmosphere” pressure setting of 1013 hectopascals (29.925 inches of mercury) to the area pressure setting of 30.13 inches of mercury.   I have already set “30.13” on my altimeter setting on my mode control panel, Geoff’s hand is rising to change his altimeter from “STD” to 30.13.   My hand is about to change the standby altimeter setting from “STD” to 30.13.

It was a team effort; Geoff was flying and I was supporting his commands, actioning checklists, and making all the radio calls.    Only operational comments passed between us, there was a level command gradient where everyone is expected to speak up if they have concerns.   There was no room for ego.  It was busy but great fun.

Click on the photo for more detail.

We offered a few passengers a visit to our cockpit at the end of the flight for a tour of the “glass cockpit” and systems.   Our  guests love experiencing “our world” – you can see it in their eyes below.

Former American Airlines cabin attendant  enjoys the front seat after arriving in Los Angeles  (Photo R de Crespigny)

Don’t be afraid to ask to visit the flight deck after you fly with us.  It’s our privilege and pleasure to meet you and show you our “office”.

..

Tex joins us in the cockpit this morning on arrival after our return from Los Angeles back to Sydney. Tex is a 93 year old American former WWII fighter (P47 & P38) and bomber (B24) ace admitting only to flying well over 25 missions and having “a few thousand hours of flying experience”, all before the Comet and the advent of the jet engine and high speed and high altitude flight!    Tex marvelled at the A380s cockpit.

We’ve learned a lot in the last 110 years

Air travel has become so commonplace that the public often forgets just how much the industry as achieved in just 110 years since Wilbur and Orville Wright wheeled out their “flying bicycle” in 1903.

Phil Brentnall 2013 (remarkably healthy at 95 years of age!) (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Few travellers comprehend the advances in jet travel that have evolved over the past 61 years since the Comet made its first commercial pressurised high speed, high altitude jet flight.   This was a multiple sector passage from London to Johannesburg (South Africa).    I interviewed Captain Phil Brentnall who was the captain on board that first flight that hopped from London Airport over the Alps to Rome then Beirut, Khartoum, Entebbe, Livingstone then Johannesburg.  60,000 spectators amassed  to welcome Phil landing at Johannesburg.    Click here to see a video about this flight

The Comet cruised at the new extraordinary height of 40,000 feet.   At this high altitude, the cold air caused the pitot heaters to fail and the fuel to freeze.  The aircraft stalled or went supersonic if not handled smoothly in the thin air.   Engine failures were common.

The 10th January 2014 marked sixty years since the third Comet I passenger jet aircraft exploded (airborne). It had just taken off and was climbing through 26,000′ over Elba (Italy).  29 passengers and 6 crew killed and all Comets were grounded shortly afterwards.

It was the last straw.   Of 19 Comet I aircraft built, 8 crashed.  Phil lost seven friends.  The Comet’s Certificate of Airworthiness was revoked.

The Comets’ accidents marked the first time that detailed aviation accident investigations were carried out. It also provided the impetus for Australia’s David Warren to invent the Black Box (flight data recorder).  (See Eve Coggan’s video about David Warren, and Eve’s interview with me) The cause of the aircraft losses was traced to sharp (square) corners in the fuselage windows and antenna mounts, that concentrated stresses into smaller areas until fractures occurred.

The Jet Age was with us and aviation would never be the same again.

The damage to the Comet’s reputation was irreparable.   The Comet IV surfaced five years later with the design flaws corrected, but by this time the “Torch” of high altitude, high speed jet travel that the Comet I had dropped, was picked up and carried to victory by Boeing with their B707 and McDonnell Douglas with their DC8.

Burnt aircraft fuselage (built well after the Comet) showing the rounded window frames, distorted plastic inner window  pane (first two windows) and the charcoaled outer window pane (3rd window) (Photo R De Crespigny)

Boeing and McDonnell Douglas can thank the Comet for paving the way for discoveries about high performance jet flight that we take for granted today.  Stall warning systems were invented, takeoff and high altitude performance refined, and the manufacturers learned to never cut square windows into aircraft fuselages.

These discoveries resulted in advancements that later became enshrined in the world’s newer “Certification” standards.  This is why the test pilots say that certification rules were “written in blood”.

Sunset looking west over the India Ocean (January 2014 (Photo R de Crespigny)

Torch Relays

I thought of “Torch Relays” as I observed  the spectacular Torched pin sharp technicolour sunrise  that morning.   A few more Torch Relays came to mind;

Virgin Galactic’s 3rd Supersonic flight – 10 Jan 2014 (Image: Virgin Galactic)

• Wright Brothers and first flight 110 years ago,
• Captain Phil Brentnall’s first Comet flight from London to Johannesburg 61 years ago,
• Neil Armstrong on the moon 44 years ago
• Sully Sullenberger’s “Miracle on the Hudson” (five years ago today!), and
• Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic space venture this year.  (3rd supersonic flight on 10 Jan 2013)

Virgin Galactic’s 3rd Supersonic flight – 10 Jan 2014 (showing the rocket nozzle beautifully expanding the exhaust  gasses and thus reducing the exhaust  pressure to match the very low ambient air pressures found at 90% into space) (Image: Virgin Galactic)

Blue Marble

The bold will inherit the Earth.  Life is not a dress rehearsal; it is short and unpredictable.  Just like every spectacular sunrise, regard each day is a gift: seize it and treat it as though it is one of your last, as you only live it once and you cannot guarantee that there will be more.

Blue Marble (Photo: NASA)

Technology waits for no-one.  When De Havilland dropped the Comet’s Torch (for commercial high speed, high altitude jet flight), Boeing and McDonnell Douglas picked it up and the rest is history.

We are currently in a technological quiet period before a storm, with phenomenal research about to deliver remarkable advances in energy, genetics, artificial intelligence, automation (mechatronics), unmanned vehicles and air travel.

Many Torches of fire, power, superiority and pride lie ahead of us, ready to be grasped and relayed.   The opportunities are boundless.  Some of the torches are our dreams that many will turn into reality.

Two industry leaders summarised opportunities in the aviation industry at the CAPA Conference in Amsterdam last December 2013:

• “I think this is the most exciting time in the history of aviation”.   (Willie Walsh, CEO of IAG (owner of British Airways))
• “It’s a world that is changing, business models have to change to either adapt otherwise they will not survive but if you do adapt and align then the opportunities are endless”.   (Tim Clark, CEO of Emirates)

The Torches of opportunity are lying on the ground.   Someone has to pick them up and run with them.   They’ll have to have a fierce will, intrepid spirit and a distance runner.  The Wright Brothers did it, Phil Brentnall did it, Neil Armstrong did it.   Sully Sullenberger did it.   Now it’s your turn.

You might even be able to see your Torch.  Are you ready to it pick up and run with it?

Bush fires over continental Australia – from 35,000 feet (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Sunset looking west over the India Ocean (January 2014 (Photo R de Crespigny)

Further Reading

• Recipe for Innovation from the inventor of the Laser

Update 22 Feb 2012

I think the Canadian “Air Crash Investigation S13E10 – Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky” production  (as shown on the National Geographic channel) is better.

Mayday Mayday – Terror on QF32

Peter Overton presented “Mayday Mayday – Terror on QF32″ a special investigation into flight QF32 in Australia on On Sunday 16th February.

The one hour program analysed the QF32 flight.  Peter Overton, the narrator explained:  “it’s a gripping tale of what went wrong”    Peter reveals more in this recent interview (that might only be viewed in Australia).

• Click here to view the documentary  (42 minutes)

The program also analyses two other controversial accidents that I had researched for my Big Jets book.

XL Airways Germany Flight 88T (A320) – France

Interesting traces from the A320 investigation. A “G” plot would have been interesting.

I studied the the BEA accident report after it was released, particularly the flight data recorder graphs.    I sumarised my investigation with the phrase that should reverberate in every pilot’s mind, and the phrase that I insisted be the title for QF32 Chapter 19 (the chapter that described the A380’s flight control laws):
“IF YOU CAN’T TRIM, YOU CAN’T FLY”.

United Flight 232 (DC-10) – USA

The second incident was the United Flight 232, a DC-10 flight on the 19th July 1989 commanded by Captain Alfred (Al)  Haynes.   The fan rotor  on #2 engine suffered an uncontained failure that caused a loss of all the three hydraulic systems that powered the flight controls.  The aircraft subsequently crashed at Sioux City.  (Click here to view the NTSB report).

Captain Haynes, his crews and the Sioux City rescue services executed a remarkable recovery in the most challenging circumstances.   Simulator trials after the event suggested that most pilots would not be able to control an aircraft without powered flight controls to land safely.

Mark Johnson, Matt Hicks, me, David Evans, Harry Wubben (Photo: R de Crespigny)

Of the 296 people on board, 111 were killed in the crash.  The remarkable survival of 185 is due to the exemplary performance of Al Haynes and his crews, the Sioux City rescue services, as well as the 285 additional trained personnel from the Iowa Air National Guard that by chance were also on duty at Sioux City airport to help with triage and evacuation.

Captain Haynes said after the flight:  “We were too busy (to be scared).  You must maintain your composure in the airplane or you will die. You learn that from your first day flying.”

Captain Haynes’ management of the crisis is a text book example of Crew Resource Management (CRM), and Leadership:

• Aviate (someone has to focus on flying the aircraft!)
• Work as a team.
• Make good decisions.    Use all available resources.  Tap into your fellow pilots’ knowledge, skill and experience
• Communicate to all stakeholders (including the cabin attendants, passengers and air traffic control)

18 of the 25 QF 32 Cabin Crew at the Cabin Crew eXcel Awards Ceremony 2011

Sunset looking west over the Indian Ocean January 2014 (Photo R de Crespigny)

Nancy-Bird Walton

For the aviation evangelists I recommend the issue of Flight dated 7th March 1914, published by the Royal Aero Club of the United Kingdom.   The list Committee members then included aviation notables such as T. Sopwith and J Moore-Brabazon.

Frank Van Haste emailed me today:

Captain, I note that 100 years ago today (4 Mar 1914), among those present at the annual dinner of the Royal Aero Club of the United Kingdom, was your ancestor Sir Claude Champion de Crespigny.     He would have heard the extensive remarks from the First Sea Lord, Sir Winston Churchill.    Thought if you were unaware, it’d interest you.

Thank you Frank.   Indeed this issue of Flight is an extraordinary newsletter that shows a glimpse of the intrepid aviators in their fledgling industry as it existed 100 years ago, and how far we have progressed in such a relatively short time.

The discussions included:

Fear of Flight – 1914

… at the high altitudes above 8,000 feet …

• pilots may have a lot of light to throw on the subject, but that they dread to say anything about it, for fear they might be thought less of from the point of view of those not knowing better ….
• many pilots have an awful dread that their engine is going to stop
• Everywhere is space, emptiness, blankness. He is but a speck in the vast expanse.
• Still higher, and yet even higher he may force his machine, and all the previously explained sensations become intensified. Is it then not possible, or even probable that at an altitude similar to that pictured a pilot may become possessed of fears that have no foundation—fears that are born entirely of his own imagination, and having been born, shall become more and more realistic, and, attacking the nerves when they are in no fit state to fight against them, shall take possession of, and dominate the whole mind to the extent that the pilot shall see with his very eyes, the thing which he dreads taking place, with no power to prevent it.

Hypoxia (not understood in 1914)

• Ten, twelve, fourteen thousand feet! The air becomes more rarefied, the brain becomes exhilarated, there is a feeling of lightness about the whole body. With the reduction of the atmospheric pressure, the blood courses more rapidly to the brain, the pulse beats quicker, there is a dawning sense of hysteria. Then arises an inclination to sing and shout, or, perhaps, even an almost irresistible impulse to get out and walk about on the wings.
• At a still greater altitude, when the air becomes even more rarified, this light feeling is probably followed by one of lassitude—a reaction to the previous excitement. The brain becomes dull, strange fancies take possession of it, and it is conceivable that a man may now have thoughts, which, under the circumstances, are more likely to take the form of fears than the previous glorious exaltation. He is up thousands of feet above the earth. Above him, as he looks up, is space— blue, indefinite space, unmeasurable even to the imaginative mind.

  Vestibular System (Photo R de Crespigny)

• On a related physiological topic, Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) has just released its Flight Safety Australia publication (March-April 2014) that includes an interview “Don’t believe your ears” and video on the topic of spatial disorientation.

Sir Winston Churchill – 1914

My ancestor Sir Claude (QF32 page 14) was one of the 75 pilots that attended the Royal Aero Club annual dinner.   Sir Winston Churchill (First Lord of the Admiralty) was the special guest who offered these perceptions:

• Perhaps flying is one of the best tests of national quality which exists. It is a combination of science and skill, of organisation and enterprise, which affords a more fitting field for the exercise of this quality than many of those games and competitions which are made the subject of international contest.   (p 249)
• I do not think we can expect for some considerable time that pleasure flying will be indulged in on a large scale.   I am not talking about mere sensationalism, or the very natural desire to see what a new thing is like, but if pleasure flying were ever to be solidly established in this country, it would be necessary that it should be possible to travel across country with a considerable degree of assurance that the passenger would reach his destination punctually and in good condition. And that unhappily is not possible at present.  This is a particularly difficult country to fly in.  Its land and its physical nature make it incomparably a severer test of aviation than do the conditions which present themselves on the Continent. And until British engineers are able to devise an arrangement of engines or a combination of engines which will ensure that the pilot is not forced to make an unexpected and possibly inconvenient landing it is not very hopeful that flying for the moment will reach a point at which it could be a sure foundation of strong propulsive power for our aviation services. (p 248)

Aerodynamics

There is also a discussion on the stability of different airfoil shapes and using ailerons instead of “wing warping” to roll the aircraft.

The Wright Flyer used “wing warping” for roll control  (Photo RDC)

Air Crash Investigators – 100 Years Later

The Royal Aero Club newsletter reminded me of my closing remarks in a recent interview for the production “Air Crash Investigation S13E10 – Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky”.

At the time of my interview, our story was planned to be the final episode (ever) in the Air Crash Investigators series.  So I was determined to use this opportunity to acknowledge my ancestors that had toiled and suffered to make aviation what it is today – perhaps the safest transportation industry in the world.

What a privilege.   What a responsibility!

My final words were intended to thank everyone who had contributed to aviation.  I wanted to acknowledge the earliest pioneers; those who had assembled in London at the Royal Aero Club Dinner on the 4th March 1914, and their descendants.   I wanted to thank Armstrong, Boeing, Bird, Boyd, Brabazon, Brentnall, Crossfield, De Havilland, Earhart, Gagarin, Garros, Glenn, Hawker, Haynes, Hinkler, Hoover, Hughes, Kingsford-Smith, Kranz, Kuchemann, Langley, Lindbergh, Lovell, Ogilvie, Moody, Orlebar, Roe, Rolls, Royce, Sikorsky, Smith, Sopwith, Sullenberger, Sutter, Ulm, Whitcomb, Whittle, Von Braun, Wright, Yeager and Ziegler, and so many more.

It’s a pity that my full statement of appreciation was shortened:

The Lancet 1918

The QF32 story – it’s not about me as the pilot in command of QF32,  the pilots, the cabin crew or even my airline.    It’s a story of resilience and team excellence where 8 teams pooled the industry’s knowledge, training, experience and worked together to survive a Black Swan Event.  It’s about aviation that for the last 110 years has shared their knowledge and experience to made aviation safer for the travelling public. 

See also:

• 100 Years Ago in Aviation
• Aviation pathways for Aspiring Pilots  (for the 1918 Lancet article: “The Essential Characteristics of Successful and Unsuccessful Aviators”)

There has been a lot of recent interest in the production entitled “Air Crash Investigation S13E10 – Qantas 32: Titanic In The Sky”.     This program has been broadcast on the National Geographic channel. 

Closing Statement

It’s a pity that my final statement (shown at the end of the program) was shortened.   I actually said:

The Lancet 1918

The QF32 story – it’s not about me as the pilot in command of QF32,  the pilots, the cabin crew or even my airline.    It’s a story of resilience and team excellence where 8 teams pooled the industry’s knowledge, training, experience and worked together to survive a Black Swan Event.  It’s about aviation that for the last 110 years has shared their knowledge and experience to made aviation safer for the travelling public.

Click here to view more about this topic

Questions

VH-OQJ (Bert Hinkler) at London in April 2013. (Photo RDC)

Post any questions below.

I will attempt to answer questions that have not been analysed in the book.

(Think of Bert Hinkler whenever you see the A380 registered VH-OQJ)

Extoplasm and contrails behind an Emirates A380 at 35,000 feet (2,000 feet below us) flying east over the Indian Ocean (Photo RDC)

See also:

• Aviation pathways for Aspiring Pilots
• A380s, Storm Petrels and Super Sonic Cars

Update

IFALPA says “Stop speculating about MH370“

The Empirical Skeptic

Viewers of last night’s Air Crash Investigators program (Australia on Channel 7) have asked me many questions including:

• Why didn’t we evacuate the A380 immediately after stopping on the runway in Singapore?
• What are my views about the Malaysian incident?

My answers centre around how I gather, judge, store and use data.

Empirical Skeptic

I am an Empirical Skeptic.

Sully Sullenberger

I am motivated by facts, not by presumptions, assumptions, bias nor group think.    I assess new information for its authenticity, provenance and trustworthiness before judging whether to accept or to reject it.   In this regard I adopt Richard Dawkins’ view:

“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”

In today’s society where everyone with a mobile phone is a journalist, the Golden Hour has gone and there has never been a greater need for full and open disclosure and personal guarantees.   We should also remember Ronald Reagan’s words:

“Trust but Verify”.

 So the next time you hear about something that scares you, look for data.  Be suspicious of absolute numbers that are provided without references, or no numbers at all.

QF32

Critics have commented: “de Crespigny should have evacuated the QF32 passengers quickly down the slides rather than delay and disembark them down the steps.   The fuel pooling under the aircraft should have caught fire”.

Constellation – painted by one of the world’s best aviation artists – Jaak De Koninck (www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Roy Ford, my wonderful father-in-law often tells me:  those who “assume” make an “ass” of yo”u” and “me”.

We had a different reality on the “front line”. The firemen and ground engineers were our eyes and ears to the aircraft for the two long hours that we sat on the ground before the last passenger disembarked the aircraft. The firemen gave us information about the fuel leaks and any presence of fire.   They kept us informed.  We kept the passengers and crew informed.

We waited to be told if there was fire.   We were never told that there was fire.

We had assimilated much knowledge over our long careers that would perhaps become relevant:

We knew that the aircraft was certified to evacuate 873 passengers and crew through half the 16 exits in just 90 seconds.   In reality Airbus did not just satisfy this requirement, they excelled by evacuating everyone 12 seconds faster than certification required!   In our case we had all  16 exits available.  We carried only 440 passengers and 29 crew.  So theoretically, it could have taken between 21 to 25 seconds to evacuate 469 through all the doors.

Gasoline and jet fuel have very different qualities. Jet fuel is actually very hard to ignite and keep alight!

• Jet fuel has a “flash point” (fuel temperature at which vapour can be ignited) that is at least 80 degrees Celsius higher than the flash point of gasoline.

• Jet fuel “blows out” like a candle flame in a wind of just 40 kmph.     Frank Whittle, the inventor of the gas turbine engine, discovered this as he was unable to stabilise flames inside his first engine until he enlisted Shell’s help.   Keeping the engine alight is still one of the greatest challenges in today’s latest generation jet engines.     Inside an A380’s $20m Rolls-Royce  Trent 900 engine in the cruise, the outside air must be slowed from 925 km/hr (500 knots) to swirl around each of the 20 fuel nozzles in the combustion chamber at no more than about 35 km/hr!  The F111’s classic dump and burn at Sydney’s Olympic Closing Ceremony, was only possible because the engines’ after-burners were engaged to  constantly ignite the jettisoned fuel.
• A moving flame front over jet fuel spreads at only 10% of the speed that a flame front spreads over gasoline.   The “flame spread” speed of military, normal jet fuel and gasoline is about 6/30/230 metres per minute respectively.   The “Die Hard” fantasy film’s scene that showed a “fuse” of flame moving along a track of jet fuel training behind the hijacker’s aircraft is just that – fantasy!

  Inside one of QF32’s 11 fuel tanks.  Anti-static leads earth all fuel pipes to prevent static discharges.  Enlarge this image to view a fraction  of the massive shrapnel damage to the aircraft.   (Photo ATSB Report)

• Jet fuel has a much higher electrical resistance than gasoline.   In our case this means that passengers walking through the pools of fuel can generate sufficient friction to create static discharges within that fuel.   The principle is the same as as the electrical discharge that you feel when you walk over carpet then press an elevator button.   Even the friction of jet fuel flowing through fuel pipes is sufficient to create discharges inside those pipes – hence the reason for the many grounding leads inside fuel tanks as per the photos opposite.  (Click here to see static discharges in volcanic plumes)

Eight fire trucks surrounded our aircraft.   The fire trucks were loaded with foam and water to extinguish fire around the aircraft and passengers.

Trying to drown engine #1  (Source: ATSB QF32 Report)

Evacuations are dangerous.   My studies  show that about 15% of the passengers are injured when evacuating normal jet aircraft.   In our case, almost all our A380’s doors are higher than doors on normal aircraft.  We had elderly and wheelchair passengers and a toxic scene outside.

(Four percent of the passengers were injured in the latest Avro RJ100 passenger evacuation at London this week.  (RJ100 door sills are about one quarter as high as A380 door sills).

To evacuate or not to evacuate – that is the question

The previous points are relevant because we faced new threats when we stopped our A380 on the runway.  We needed different knowledge, training and experience to identify, rate and process these new risks and to make the best decisions.

The escape slide from the 3 story (8 metre) high upper deck door sill. Rocket powered venturi pump inflates slide within 6 seconds (2/3 is fresh air). Withstands 25 kts (46 kmph) wind blasts.

We faced two significant threats; the possibility of fire and the toxic environment outside if we evacuated down the slides.  Timing was critical.

• If fire had been confirmed, then we were prepared to evacuate the passengers down the slides under the protection from the eight fire trucks and emergency services.   It’s not a pretty thought of the elderly and wheel chair passengers jumping onto, then sliding down a 45 degree sloped slide from an 8 metre (3 story) high floor.
• We tried to mitigate the toxic environment outside the aircraft.   We called for aircraft steps to avoid the injuries that would result from an evacuation using the slides.   We also  requested buses to ensure that we would keep the passengers away from the pooling fuel, the running engines and the fire trucks.  We tried to shut down number one engine that was still running.  Fire services was spreading foam over the spilled fuel and water over the hot brakes.

The threats reduced rapidly as the fire services covered the fuel and cooled the brakes.   The passengers and crew were still safer on board our aircraft than outside the aircraft.

The rest is history.  There were no injuries.

Armchair Quarterbacks

Building  a plan in the absence of facts can result in incorrect decisions and actions and potentially dangerous outcomes.

QF32’s Brake Temperatures after stopping.   Brakes 1, 2, 5 & 6 are located on the left wing gear.  (The left body brakes (9, 10, 13 & 14) absorbed more energy as a consequence.   (Source ATSB Report page 240)

Just before my book went to print, the ATSB informed me that after we had stopped, that the four brakes on the left wing slightly inboard from Engine 2 (and under the fuel leaks) were COLD.    All four brakes were between 30-40 degrees (ambient) Celsius!

Source: ATSB QF32 Report

We did not know on the day of the event that these brakes were cold.  We didn’t know that the brake’s sensors and wires had been damaged by the explosions.  We did not know that these four brakes would also be 100% useless for stopping us on the runway that day – but that discussion is for another day.

I was not able to include this information about the COLD brakes in my book “QF32″.   It would have been a Criminal Offence to release this privileged information before the ATSB published its Final Report on QF32.   The left wing brake temperatures are now shown in the ATSB report at page 240 – although the reader would have to look carefully to notice it, and few have.

We reacted to the enemy (threats) that faced us on the ground that day; what we saw, what we knew, but never what was presumed.     We did not presume that a fire was present or that it would erupt.    We wanted proof.   We knew the environment was toxic outside the aircraft, so we mitigated the threats.

300 KVA in 6 phases of 115Volt AC power cables cut and shorted. AC (Photo: ATSB QF32 Report)

How many passengers and crew would have been injured if  we had evacuated on the presumption that there would be a fire?

Reflection

It’s now three years after QF32 and only a few weeks after the shocking Malaysian tragedy.

I share the world’s grief.

I am continually asked: “what do you think?”

My answer has never changed:  I’m an Empirical Skeptic.   I react only to facts and I don’t have enough facts!

I don’t know!

I’ll then repeat these guiding words from Robert Heinlein:

What are the facts? Again and again and again — what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”

What are the facts, and to how many decimal places?

You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts! 

See also

The Golden Hour

The Media Circus around MH370

IFALPA says “Stop speculating about MH370“

Delivery team for VH-OQD “Fergus McMaster” (QF founder & first Chairman) delivered SIN-SYD 24 Aug 2009.

Update – Post Zoo Report

http://www.disabledwintersport.com.au

The Dinner at the Sanctuary Adelaide Zoo, Adelaide, South Australia was a great success.

Everyone enjoyed close encounters with panda bears, meeting Paralympic medalists, hearing stories of resilience and supporting two excellent charities.

Peter Eaton collected us from Adelaide’s brand new airport in his 1927 & 1929 Whippet cars.

Peter Eaton collects Coral and Eric Bickerton (CEO, Disabled WinterSport Australia) at Adelaide Airport

These two Whippets recently participated in rallies spanning thousands of kilometres crossing Australia’s driest and most remote deserts.  These proved to be challenging survival efforts when in one dessert crossing, both cars blew cylinder head gaskets in two days!  Peter tells me that he can now change a head gasket in two hours!

The Whippet’s wooden spokes intrigued me.  Notice the oil leaking from the spoke hub across the 1 to 4 o’clock positions?  The spokes will form the basis for a future question for Physics for the  Coffee Table.

Guests mingled before dinner in the Zoo’s ante-room that also hosted the Zoo’s two beautiful Panda Bears (Funi & Wang Wang).
.

Jess Gallagher and I presented our stories to the supporters that included The Honourable Geoff Brock MP, Australian Paralympic Committee members and business leaders.

Jess Gallagher and her mum arrive at the Adelaide Zoo for a night with the Pandas.

Jess’s and Katrina’s stories explained how you can make the best from what you are given and that opportunities abound for those who try and persevere.

Jess spoke about Resilience.  She took us through her journey from being an able bodied and successful school athlete, through her traumatic years of discovering that she would lose her sight, and left us with the unique success she has achieved in competing and winning medals at the Summer and Winter Paralympic games.

Katrina  Webb, also a Paralympian medalist, presented her story of success-challenge-success all the way to her winning a Paralympic medal.

Jess Gallagher (DWA Ambassador)

Andrew and Penny Willoughby travelled from Melbourne to Adelaide to meet and congratulate Jess.

Andrew Willoughby and Jess Gallagher

The guests were honoured to hold Jess’s heavy Paralympic Medal straight from the Sochi games 2014.

Coral with Katrina Web (Master of Ceremonies and Paralympic Medalist)

I spoke about Resilience and the Glass Half Full philosophy as it helped us on board QF32, and how it can all of us cope with the vicissitudes of life.

Jess Gallagher (beauty) and the beast!

Nick Dean (former Vice President Australian Paralympic Committee) and Jess Gallagher

The evening raised lots of support for Disabled WinterSport Australia and the Royal Society for the Blind.

Thanks to Qantas and other donors who provided lavish prizes and auction items.

Thank you Ketrah Eaton for organising a wonderful gala night.

DWA – my greatest endeavour

The DWA and RSB charities need public support to help the less fortunate.

A Patron of  Disabled Wintersport Australia, it will be Coral’s and my pleasure to participate in other supporting events for these great causes.

Coral (beauty) and the beast!

Whippets in the Winter Wilderness

We are trying to convince Peter Eaton, his wife Veronica and his daughter Ketrah (the function organiser) to join Disabled WinterSport Australia and help us host other events in the Australian ski fields this coming winter season (with their Whippets suitably attired with period skis!)

Ketrah Eaton – organiser of DWA’s Night at the Zoo

Switch and Instrument Cluster – 1927 Style

Sumatran Tiger (Photo Sophia de Crespigny)

Original Invitation

Jessica Gallagher and I will present our stories about resilience.

• I will present my story about QF32.  It’s a view into my world where we take measured risks but also where great things can happen when preparation meets opportunity.
• Jess exposes her world, showing how opportunity and growth can come from adversity.  All we need is the will to persist and help from wonderful organisations such as Disabled Wintersport Australia (DWA) and the Royal Blind Society (RBS).
• Katrina Webb (paralympic gold medalist) will MC the evening.

Qantas joins sponsors to donate prizes.

All proceeds will support DWA and the RBS.

As Patron of Disabled Wintersport Australia, I welcome you to join us for an unforgettable evening.

Cheetah (Photo Sophia de Crespigny)

Dr Jessica Gallagher

• Bronze Medalist Paralympian Skier (Vancouver 2010 & Sochi 2014)
• Ambassador – Disabled WinterSport Australia
• Ambassador – Vision Australia
• Ambassador – Vision 2020 Australia
• Ambassador – Seeing Eye Dogs Australia

Since losing her eyesight, Jess has represented Australia at the highest level in both winter and summer sports. In 2008, Jess was selected to represent Australia in her first Paralympic Games – the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing followed by the games in Vancouver 2010, London 2012 and Sochi 2014. Jess is the first Australian female athlete to win a medal at both a major international summer and winter event. Jess will talk about her training regime to become a paralympian medalist and what it takes to maintain the drive and focus to conquer her fears and to excel. Click here to view Jessica’s biography.

Katrina Webb OAM

• Gold and Silver Medalist Sprinter (Atlanta 1996, Sydney 2000, Athens 2004)
• Katrina will MC the evening
• Click here to view Katrina’s biography

Update June 2014 – Tim Clark (Emirates) not interested in 747-8.    A380 – Future updated.

Update May 2014 – Rumours of “A380 Neo”

Update February 2014 – Amedeo’s order for 20 high density fitout A380 affirms  A380 role.  A330 “light”.

Update January 2014 – Airbus ‘Mega-Twin’ Concept and research into very large twin jets the size of the Boeing 747.

Updated July 2014 – added Congested Airports and Routes

A380s, Storm Petrels & Super Sonic Cars

The aviation industry continues to  evolve.   The changing political, economic, cultural, technological and communication landscape is forcing continued consolidation of airlines, routes and aircraft types.

It’s a case of  “less is more”.  

Start of a new day from the Pilots’ desk  – perhaps for the airlines as well!  (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

The A380 is a key player in this consolidation, transporting the rapidly increasing number of passengers between congested Asian and European international hubs.   (Asia is now the largest (and fastest growing) aviation transport market with 948 million passengers flown last year, followed by North America (808 million) and then Europe (781 million)  (IATA – 2013))

I am confident that:

• the A380-900 (stretch version) will be produced, and
• the A380 will fly up until the 2060s, and
• that airline ticket prices will continue to reduce as the seat counts increase on newer aircraft.

Furthermore, I think:

• the A380 will be the last large four (quad) engine commercial passenger aircraft to be built, and
• the industry will eventually build jet engines capable of 150,000 pounds of thrust.

In this blog I’ll share a few of my thoughts about aircraft “sweet spots” and why airlines ultimately invest in one brand of a spread of aircraft to bracket their operational needs. Finally, I’ll discuss why a super sonic car might influence future super aircraft designs.

Sweet Spot

Every airline’s challenge is to deploy the best aircraft type for its route structure.   Indeed the selection of size and weight in aviation follows the same pattern already cast by nature.

Jonathan Livingston Seagull (Photo: iStockphoto)

The operational environment determines insect’s and bird’s cruising speeds that in turn determines its weight.    Small birds are suited for slow cruise sectors whilst international maritime flight is reserved for the fastest cruising (heaviest) birds such as the Pelican and Albatross.

Migrating birds that migrate beyond their “sweet spot” range risk perishing at sea.    Migrating birds drown if their long range cruising speed is insufficient to make headway into head winds.   Reports of mass bird deaths at sea show “natural selection” at work, extinguishing the birds that cannot accurately forecast maritime weather.

The Storm Petrel understands this weight-cruising speed-wind relationship.  Its name was derived by early mariners who observed the bird return to take refuge ashore before storms approached, conveniently broadcasting their foul weather forecast.

Using similar logic, we suggest that the Pteranodon, the largest flying reptile (despite its low wing loading) had such high takeoff, cruising and landing  speeds that flight was restricted to souring above the cliffs along the shore.

Pelican (Photo Sophia de Crespigny)

Aircraft manufacturers apply Biomimicry into their designs.   So the theories for birds also applies to aircraft – that the route length and cruise speed determines the ideal aircraft weight.   Everything else is a compromise; passenger count, fuselage size & type, wings and engines.

Aircraft selection also skews towards larger seat-counts for operations into congested airports (in Asia and Europe).

The consequences for Airbus and Boeing are clear.   Aircraft manufacturers must understand the demography and travelling habits of travelers and provide aircraft that are tuned to the same “sweet spot” speed and range that suits the market.

The  Great Flight Diagram shows a remarkable relationship between weight and cruising speed.   This graph also shows outliers.   The Concorde was hopelessly over-winged for cruise flight.  Compared with all other flying things, the Boeing 777s and 787s appear to be under-winged (faster) and the Airbus A350s appears to be over-winged (slower).    The A380 also appears to be over-winged, but for reasons outside the scope of this review.

The risk of poor aircraft selection is just as critical for the airlines as it is for bird species.  Putting the wrong airframe onto a route can have dire consequences.   The airline’s challenge is to apply the right aircraft for the required range.  For companies that fly long and short haul routes, its imperative to limit the number of aircraft vendors and aircraft  types to minimise the costs of manpower, training and maintenance.

I have gathered aircraft performance data over the past decade,    This data reveals the sweet spot ranges for many aircraft types.

I calculate that the current A380 has a sweet spot (maximum efficiency) range of between 5,700 and 6,700 air nautical miles (anm):

• 5,700 anm (Example: 12 hours flight time, London – Singapore)
• 6,700 anm (Example:  14.5 hours flight time, Los Angeles – Sydney)

I calculate the A330-300’s sweet spot is currently between 3,000 and 3,800 anm (although the heavier weight versions will increase the optimum reach):

• 3,000 anm (Example:  6.1 hours flight time, London – Dubai (2,870 anm))
• 3,800 anm (Example: 9 hours flight time, Sydney – Hong Kong (3900 anm)

I’ll publish sweet spots for other aircraft in my Big Jets book.

Understanding sweet spots make it easier to understand why Cathay Pacific needs more Boeing 777s, Airbus A330s and A350s than B747s and A380s.  Cathay’s Hong Kong home base is located within 5 hours flying range from half the world’s population.

Having introduced the ideal concept of the Sweet Spot, lets now look at compromises and divergences from this rule.  For sometimes the  the practice is sometimes different to the theory.

Clearly the A380 is currently tuned for the longer haul and efficiency drops if the heavy airframe is flown outside this sweet spot over shorter or longer routes.  In these cases the passenger count and freight load must be maximised to protect profits.

Yet the  world’s A380s have flown an average sector length of only eight hours over their first six years of operation.

The A380 is the optimum choice for airlines operating from congested airports or on congested routes.  Despite a sweet spot time of 12 to 14 hours flight time, the A380 early adopter airlines have chosen to optimise the A380 for greater seat counts on shorter routes between congested ports.  This trend (preferencing higher seat count before the sweet spot range) will continue particularly in markets where more passengers travel into national hubs that have become (politically) land-locked and undersized such as London Heathrow and Hong Kong.

• Heathrow has operated close to its capacity since the start of the decade.  In 2013 it processed 3.4% more passengers, mostly because the airlines squeezed 2.8 percent more seats into (the same number of but)  bigger aircraft such as the A380.  I think that this trend should be adopted by Hong Kong.

I think Hong Kong’s airport is saturated.   There will be no relief unless larger aircraft substitute the smaller aircraft:

• February 2014:     Operations during the two sectors  were delayed:  (holding), compressed traffic separation on approach, extensive push-back, taxi and takeoff delays – all indicating that the airport was task saturated at these times.
• 26 July 2014, QF128 flight HKG-SYD.   Whilst waiting to push back from the terminal at Hong Kong airport last night I heard the crew of another aircraft ask ATC for pushback clearance for their flight from Hong Kong to Shanghai.   ATC informed that crew that their flight was number 5 in the queue to fly to Shanghai, but due to congestion on that route, that ATC had negotiated a later takeoff slot time for the flight – that was now delayed by 5 hours!

Aircraft manufacturers and some airlines realise that Big Jets are in greater demand for short sectors:

• Emirates operates predominantly B777 and A380 big jets out of the (saturated airports and airspace surrounding) United Arab Emirates.
• Airbus, realising that the Asian “airpark” is full,  is considering a variant of the A300 airframe with a shorter “sweet spot” range.  This “trimmed” A330 could have a smaller fuel tank capacity which would lighten the wing structure, wing box and airframe weight.  The resulting shorter “sweet spot” range will be better suited to the short intra-asian routes.

Very Large Aircraft (VLA)

Consider the B747 and A380 VLA aircraft deployments.   The top five B747 and  A380 airports (respectively)  for 2013 are: (anna.aero)

1. London \ Dubai
2. Taipei \ Singpore
3. Frankfurt \ London
4. Hong Kong \ Paris
5. Bangkok \ Frankfurt

These lists suggest that the VLA market is primarily used to resolve major hub congestions.      Notice that Australian and USA airports fail to appear in the these lists despite the A380 having a “sweet spot” that is ideal for USA-Australia routes.  From my own recent observations, the long  lines of A380s transiting at the congested Dubai and Heathrow airports reaffirms my conclusion that the seat count currently takes higher priority than the “sweet spot” range.

Transaero and Amedeo are two airlines extending this concept even further ….

Nancy Bird Walton (A380-OQA) (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

Super Carriers: Transaero and Amedeo

Airbus is trying to convince airlines to adopt the 525-seat A380 configuration.

Most A380 airlines offer between 407 seats (Korean) to ~ about 540 seats (Air France, Lufthansa).    Qantas’ A380s are configured for 484 passengers (14 First, 64 Business, 35 Premium Economy & 371 Economy).  Emirates plan to introduce two-class A380s with 617-seats.

Refuelling the A380 under a London (Heathrow) moon. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

My data analysis shows that that an A380 filled to the brim with 853 passengers (315/538 on the upper/lower decks respectively) provides fuel efficiencies that surpass all other aircraft types, including another darling of the skies, the A330-300.

“When we put the proper seat count on the [A380] plane, the economics are unbeatable and will remain unbeatable”    (Doric Chief Executive Officer Marc Lapidus)

Two Airbus customers are listening and responding to improve the A380’s efficiency.

Amedeo (formerly Doric), an aircraft leasing company is lifting the A380’s seat count to 630.   Amedeo ordered twenty A380s to most likely fill a strategic capability for airlines that wish to provide the most competitive  (low cost high density) service between congested hubs.

The Russians will supercharge low cost  air travel even more when Transaero takes delivery of its first of four A380s in 2015.   Transaero’s A380s will seat 652 passengers in three classes (12 Imperial (first), 24 business and 616 economy) making it the first airline to fill the aircraft closer to its certified passenger limit (of 853).

“Toulouse – we have a problem!”

Transaero’s and Amedeo’s challenge is to select a lighter cabin design.    They will have a limited freight capacity (with a full passenger load) if they install heavy seats in a heavy cabin.

Currently the A380’s limiting freight related weights include:    (see QF32 page 345 for more info)

242t – Manufacturers Empty Weight (MEW) (approx)

300t – Dry Operating Weight (DOW) (45 tonne cabin fit-out plus crew plus catering)

369t – Maximum Zero Fuel Weight (MZFW)

Airbus designed the A380 to be as light as possible.   Airbus engineers planned (and hoped) that airlines would also fit the lightest cabin layouts, ideally weighing no more than I think about 35 tonnes.

Some airlines have installed cabin designs weighing up to 45 tonnes (heavy seats, showers, bars and two lane stairs).   These “obese” cabins  leave just  69 tonnes for passengers and freight (369t MZFW minus the 300t DOW).    If Doric installs a heavy (45 tonne) cabin, then 652 passengers and luggage would weigh about 65 tonnes leaving just four tonnes for freight.  The freight capacity can be increased if:

Transaero and Doric install the next generation of lighter seats and cabin interiors (lighter than 45 tonnes), and/or

Airbus further increases the maximum Zero Fuel, Takeoff and Landing weights.   (I think Airbus cannot reduce the MEW).

Westminster on Thames.   London is one of the A380’s key hubs.   (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

A380 – Future

“… the A380 is the future. And we don’t like anyone talking about it not being around.”  (Tim Clark, President, Emirates, announced Nov 2013)

A380’s Forward, Mid and Aft fuselages. A380-900 has an additional 5 frames in the forward fuselage (+ 3.2m) and 5 frames in the aft fuselage (+ 3.2m) (Image: Airbus)

I forecast that the A380 will be the largest operating passenger aircraft for decades to come (or until energy costs reduce to a small fraction of operating costs).

Airbus announced (October 2013) that the A380 program should break even (financially) in 2015  (based upon 30 sales/deliveries per year)

Evolutionary changes by Airbus, airlines and the engine manufacturers will all contribute to improve the A380’s efficiency by I think another 8% to 15% over the next 15 years :

• Airbus is investigating fitting massive winglets for a potential 3% increase in fuel efficiency (curiously based upon the A320).   (The wings delivered after January  2013 were re-twisted to  provide an improved cruise fuel flow.)
• Rolls Royce has announced plans to improve their engine’s Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC).   A 5% Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC) improvement could be achieved by updating the engine’s compressors, high pressure turbine blades and reducing the turbine clearances.   Keeping and laminar air flow around the nacelles will also improve the SFC.
• Airlines will be forced to fit better engineered cabins and more condensed seating.   Immediate savings can be achieved by removing the unnecessarily wide stairs, unnecessarily heavy seats and obese cabin fitouts. 

Tim Clark, CEO of Emirates recently described the A380 as “A Magnet“.      If the A380 operation can be improved by another 15%, then its future can be assured for the next 40 years, taking us up to 2050 when demand for world air travel will have tripled.  In this case I imagine the A380 being the only heavy lifting aircraft that can provide an equatorial air conveyor between the handful of clusters of the worlds largest mega cities.

A380-800

The A380-800 is 73 metres long.

The A380’s published sales price is US$400m.   This is higher than the “back of the envelope” figure of US$1m per ton of basic weight (without fuel and freight) although deals have been negotiated at bargain prices (Doric purchased  A380 (MSN 136) for US$245m)

The A380 continues to sell.    A total of 309 A380s have been ordered (end November 2013), 140 by Emirates (50 at the Dubai Airshow in Nov 2013).

A380-900

I hope Airbus decides to produce the next version of the A380, the A380-900.   The A380-900 will be the aircraft of choice for long range intercontinental travel.

The A380-900 is an A380-800 stretched by another six metres to make it fill a “box” 80 metres long by 80 metres wide.   The latest “Code F”  airports are designed to cater for aircraft having up to an 80 metre wingspan and 16 metre wheel track.

I guess that the certified seat count might increase by 80 to about 933 passengers extending the aircraft further into it’s own super league.

I think the A380 was always designed to be 80 metres long.   The cruising speed, wing, fuel tank capacity, and limiting weights all point to this aircraft needing to have a higher wing loading and thus, more passengers and more weight (refer back to the Sweet Spot and Great Flight Diagram).

Airbus Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier recently announced that he thought the A380-900  will be available, maybe in in 2023-2028.  I hope

Last of the Four Engines

I think that the A380 marks the last four engine passenger aircraft that will grace the skies.

Four engine (quad) aircraft traditionally provided benefits over the twins:

• better engine optimisation (for the cruise)
• reduced wing bending moments (lighter wing box and wing)
• improved range, payload and high altitude performance
• freedom to work outside the Extended range Twin Operations (ETOPs) limitations

But these relative advantages of the quad have reduced with time.

Economics now favours the twin over the quad:

• Simpler and lighter structures,    Twins gain weight reductions and drag benefits from lightening the structures and optimising the flows over the rest of the wing where the third and fourth engines were removed.
• The integrated aerodynamic flows, wing aero-elastics, manufacturing purchase price, running and maintenance costs
• Cheaper to buy two big engines than four small.

Aerodynamicists prefer to design simpler  “semi clean” twins rather than the more complex “dirty” quads:

•  An aircraft i s now designed as a compete integrated unit, merging the fuselage, wing and engines into one complex structure.  Gone are the days of treating them as many separate entities.
• Quad aero-elastics is more complicated than twin aero-elastics.   This is a very complex subject.  However for a simple analogy,  please view my later blog: “Bio-Mimicry of shaking Dogs”.    Whilst viewing the video, imagine the dogs’ ears being aircraft wings. Now consider being the engineer given the responsibility to design the ears, responsible for the shape, structures, aerodynamics and aero-elastics.  Now imagine designing how to mount two engines onto the ears.  Now imagine mounting four engines onto the ears…

Despite these improvements that now favour twins rather than quads, many limitations remain that prevent engine manufacturers from making engines that could power a twin engine version of the A380.

Flying over Europe at 37,000 feet (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

“The engines canna take anymore, Cap’n!”

 ( Scotty (Character) – Star Trek)

The magnificent 84,0098 lb thrust, 32,000 parts, 6.4 ton, 8.5 to 8.7 Bypass Ratio, USD$18m Rolls-Royce Trent 900.   The dorsal fin at the top left? That’s a discussion for another time!   (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

No engine currently exists that could power a twin engine A380.  The A380 “twin” would probably need engines capable of producing up to 150,000 pounds of thrust, well beyond that current generation of engines that top out at about 115,000 pounds of thrust.    Many factors currently limit the capability to build super-engines, including:

• physical diameter of the engine (compromising the air frame by raising the fuselage higher off the ground), and
• the capability to build fan and turbine disks that are able to withstand the incredible forces without exploding (going BANG!), and
• the maximum temperature that the High Pressure Turbine blades can withstand.

The good news is that although I think the A380’s tail fin is over-sized for the A380-800, it’s probably the perfect size for the A380-900 or even the A380 twin (I’m a little cheeky).

Interestingly:

• Aviation Week recently revealed the Airbus ‘Mega-Twin’ Concept and research into very large twin jets the size of the Boeing 747.
• Emirates discusses the need to provide enhanced engines for the A380

Preventing things going BANG! …

Andy Green and I know a little bit about this.

Rolls-Royce Trent 900 4th generation fan blade – the most complicated aerodynamic structure on the A380. (1.07 metres long, 14 kg, pure titanium, “honeycomb” hollow wide chord, supersonic swept, diffusion bonded/superplastically formed (DBSPF) Cost > US$35,000 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

First, we need to understand that jet engine turbine disks operate very close to their temperature and rpm limits.

Aviation turbine disks are certified to survive rpm over-speeds of just 20%  (44% more strain) over the maximum rated rpm.  To put the centripetal forces into perspective, each fan blade on the front of the Rolls-Royce XWB jet engine (powering the new Airbus A350) experiences 100 tons of force during takeoff – equivalent to a freight train hanging off each blade.

The high pressure turbine blades (I think the most technically complex components on the entire A380) operate in even more threatening environments.   At high power the blades sit within (and are impacted-powered by) exhaust air that is 400 degrees Celsius hotter than the blades melting point!

QF32

Part of the 1 metre diameter, 160kg, 8,300 rpm   Intermediate Turbine disk recovered after the QF32 event (Image: ATSB)

In the case of QF32, the number 2 engine on my aircraft failed when the intermediate pressure turbine disk exploded under conditions of high temperature and RPM.

Andy Green (and his Super Sonic Cars (SSCs))

Andy Green, Sydney – 2013 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Wing Commander Andy Green is the Royal Air Force fighter pilot who in 1997 set the world land speed record of Mach 1.02 (1,228 kph, 763 mph) in the twin Rolls-Royce Spey 202 powered “Thrust SSC”  (Super Sonic Car)  jet car.

Click here to see the video of the record breaking run.  The car’s bodywork was exposed to air pressures of up to 10 tonnes per square metre.  Notice the shock waves churning-plowing the hard desert surface into dust.   Interestingly, Thrust SSC experienced an unexpected massive increase in drag at Mach 1.   The increase was attributed to the shock waves slamming against the desert floor, shattering the hard surface into an air-rock “plasma” – absorbing critical energy in the process.

After setting the land speed record, Andy’s next challenge is to build his Bloodhound SSC car that in 2015 will exceed his previous record by 31%, exceeding 1,000 mph (Mach 1.4, 1600 kmph or 447 metres per second!).

Bloodhound SSC will be powered by a single Rolls-Royce EJ2000 jet engine (from the Typhoon Eurofighter), and a rocket motor (that incorporates an oxidiser “fuel” pump powered by a 750 hp Cosworth Formula 1 engine).   The jet engine and rocket will combine to produce about 133,000 thrust horsepower, the equivalent to 180 Formula 1 cars.  (click here to view the cockpit)

You might ask: “Why do we need 130,000 horsepower to travel just 16 times our road speed limit?”   The answer comes courtesy of the drag and power equations.  Drag is proportional to speed squared.   Power is proportional to drag times speed – so power is proportional to speed CUBED!   So we need 16 cubed (= 4,096) times as much horsepower to go 1,600 kmph than we do to travel just 100 kmph (although this equation does not account for losses from (shock) wave drag).    You will appreciate the Bloodhound’s high finesse (smoothness) when you divide 133,000 by 4,096 to calculate the horsepower the Bloodhound needs to travel at 100 kmph.

What has Andy’s Bloodhound got to do with the Airbus A380 and larger engines?   Andy told me that the Rolls-Royce and Bloodhound engineers face similar challenges:

Bloodhound SCC (image: Siemens NX)

• One of Andy’s limiting challenges for the Bloodhound SSC car is to create the fastest wheels in history that will not explode under radial loads of 50,000 G at high speed.    Bloodhound’s 90cm diameter wheels will rotate at 10,200 rpm, faster than most disks in your PC’s hard drive and three percent faster than certified 120% over-speed rpm limit for the the turbine disk that exploded on flight QF32.
• Rolls Royce also need to create larger and faster turning turbine disks that can power the next generation of commercial jet engines.  Their challenge is to continually extend the size and thrust limits whilst protecting reliability.

Although Andy’s wheels will be operating in cool air in the Hakskeen Pan in Northern Cape, South Africa, the research and development for Bloodhounds SSC’s  wheels will probably feed back to help Rolls-Royce design bigger more powerful turbine disks that will form the bedrock inside the next generation of larger Rolls-Royce jet engines.  Maybe with Andy’s help we will see super-engines capable of powering a future two engine A380!

Conclusion

This blog has covered some theory of flight from the Pteranodon, through the Storm Petrel, Albatross, Concorde and A330 to the A380 quad and A380 twin.  It also presents some of the challenges the engine manufacturers will face when building the next generation of turbo fan engines.

I doubt that we will ever see an A380 twin, but history shows that aviators have continually invented and improvised to make the impossible, possible.

Counter to some industry reports, I think the A380 (particularly the A380-900) will fill fly for decades, and remain the best of breed for long distance (A380-900) and also for high seat density (A380-800) travel.   Tim Clark (Emirates) thinks similarly, stating:

• “[the A380]  it’s a really good aircraft.”  (November 2013)
• “Our customers love it and it is one of the most efficient aircraft to operate in terms of fuel burn per passenger.”  (December 2013)
• “There is nothing out there that resembles what the A380 can do.”  (June 2014)

I love the aviation industry!  It’s the most thrilling, extraordinary and exciting profession.  But never become overconfident and never forget Neil Armstrong’s mantra:

“Expect the unexpected”

I hope you enjoyed this brief tour.    The complete analysis will be included in my Big Jets book.

Good luck Andy.   Good luck Rolls-Royce.  Good luck Airbus.  Good luck Boeing.

Andy Green discussing his 1997 ThrustSSC world record in Sydney – 2013. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Rolls-Royce is a key sponsor for Andy’s Bloodhound SSC project.  Coincidentally, Andy Green is also a Cresta (skeleton bob sled) rider who recently mentored my son Alexander at the Cresta Run in St Moritz.

“Life is short, break the rules”

Coral and I invite you and your partner to be our guests at the St Vincent’s Hospital “Life Ball” tomorrow (Friday 10th October) night next to Sydney Harbour.    No tricks.   No charges.   Let me explain ….

“Yes Gal” Coral de Crespigny (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Yes Man Plan

Coral and I believe in the “Yes Man Plan”.

The “Yes Man Plan”(Alexander de Crespigny)

“Yes Man” Alexander de Crespigny

Our son Alexander invented the “Yes Man Plan”.  It’s his philosophy of answering “Yes!” to offers to meet people, go places or just to experience something new.

Coral and I also believe in Alex’s “Yes Man Plan”.

Following the “Yes Man Plan” has resulted in us meeting new life friends and travelling to places that we would have never dreamed of visiting. Every day Coral and I have great pleasure in meeting people.   Some are passengers that I meet when I walk around the A380 cabin during the flight.   Others that I meet on the street are always kind, polite and keen to talk and ask questions about my book “QF32″.

Then there are others we are excited to meet who have a passion for aviation, a passion to help others or simply a love for science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM).  It’s STEM that motives us all to learn more, to improve our performance and to survive in this increasingly technological world.  STEM is the key to Australia’s future, and so I am happy to talk to anyone who is keen to promote and support STEM at school, university, the workplace or internationally.

Adopting the “Yes Man Plan” has also enabled me to accept many exciting opportunities.   I am now the:

• Patron of Disabled Wintersport Australia
• Patron of the Uiver DC2 Aircraft Restoration (25 Oct 2014),
• Opener of the new Clare Valley Airport in South Australia (1 Nov 2014); and
• STEM Ambassador (for Andy Green’s Bloodhound SSC)

What has the “Yes Man Plan” got to do with the St Vincent’s Hospital “Life Ball”?

St Vincent’s Hospital “Life Ball”

Coral and I are attending the St Vincent’s Hospital “Life Ball”, a charity event tomorrow night (Friday 10th October) at a fabulous location at Doltone House, Jones Bay Wharf, Pyrmont, Sydney at 6.30 pm. This is a lavish event with excellent food, bands and entertainment.

“Yes Man” Alex de Crepsigny

In an unusual twist, the organiser of the table is now unable  to attend the event and so I am now offering up to eight places at our table to other like minded people who might wish to attend and enjoy the food, company, dancing and charity event.

You and your partner will be Coral’s and my guests at this great event.  The tickets to this Ball are expensive, but these costs have already been paid.  There are no charges for you however please be aware that the dress is strictly “Black Tie”.

The Offer

I offer you and your partner the opportunity to join Coral and me and eight others at a table of ten at the Life Ball.  These seats are available to eight selected QF32 web site readers and their partners who:

“Yes Man” Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot of 88 years)

• are 21 years of age or older;
• are able to attend the Ball tomorrow night in Sydney;
• can meet the “Black Tie” dress requirements;
• have passion; and
• want to dance!

Update – 13 October 2014 – “Yes Man Plan” a success!

Thank you to Jan and John Wasiliev, Sanjay and Haima Prakash, Christian and Jan Langton, James Frost and Kym Treasure for your company at the ball on Friday night.   It was a fantastic night only because of your great company.

Professor Christian Langton and Sanjay Prakash

Thanks also to Jane Ferguson for organising the inspired organiser of the St Vincent’s Hospital “Life Ball”.

The guests raised $1,200,000 to help the St Vincent’s Hospital continue it’s fantastic work.   The doctors of St Vincent’s donated $250,000!

Coral and I were so pleased to meet you all.  The night’s success is more proof that Alex’s “Yes Man Plan” is a great driver for action, excitement and success!

Sanjay and Haima Prakash

“Yes Man” Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot of 88 years)

Why

To those who think that I am silly to ask strangers to sit with Coral and me at a Black Tie event, I offer these considerations:

RIP the ultimate “Yes Man” – Neil Armstrong (in an A380 simulator) who said “expect the unexpected”

• Life is short, break the rules   (Mark Twain)
• Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life …. (Steve Jobs)
• Invert the Logic
• Expect the Unexpected
• Yes Man Plan
• Seize the Day

Flight of the Uiver – 80th Anniversary Today

• Contact Uiver Memorial Community Trust  (UMCT)
• Photos of the Uiver

Today the 24th October 2014 is Albury’s day.

Today is the 8oth Anniversary of the most unusual and extraordinary  flight of a DC-2 (named “Uiver) that landed at Albury’s Race Course, New South Wales, Australia at 1:20 am during a thunderstorm on 24 October 1934.

The story of the Flight of the Uiver reminds us of our humanity, that goodwill and teamwork exists between nations, companies and people.   In our new media hyped environment where every stranger is a potential terrorist, the Uiver story reminds us that we are kind and honourable, that  we can all be leaders, team members and supporters to work together to solve any crisis.

The Uiver anniversary reminds us that  intrepid people who make courageous decisions create intrepid teams that achieve remarkable outcomes.

Lost in Space – Found by Albury (Painting Jaak de Koninck – http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Today, Friday 24th October 2014 marks the 80th Anniversary of the Uiver landing at Albury when

• KLM’s Douglas DC-2 registered PH-­AJU and named “Uiver” was just behind the leader (a de Havilland DH.88 Comet) and a contender to win the famous 1934 race from Mildenhall (UK) to Melbourne (Australia) Air Race.   The Uiver carried a crew of four (Pilot, CoPilot, Radio/Navigator, Mechanic) and three paying passengers.  The Uiver’s three passengers were the FIRST COMMERCIAL PASSENGERS TO FLY FROM LONDON TO AUSTRALIA!
• The Uiver’s final planned course from Charleville to Melbourne did not come close to the town of Albury.
• The Navigation Officer became lost on the black and thundery final leg .   Massive thunderstorms produced static electricity that cut most radio communications and interfered with signals from ground based radio navigation aids.   It was impossible to use radio direction finders to calculate a position fix.

• Uiver Crew Left->Right:  H. Van Brugge (Radio/Navigator, K.D. Parmentier (Captain), Johannes Moll (Co-Pilot), Prinz (Mechanic)

  Captain Koene Parmentier flew over Albury many times, each time trying to identify the town, his position and then plot a new course to Melbourne.   He kept underneath low cloud amongst embedded thunderstorms, flashing landing lights to ask for help from people in their homes.

• With the Uiver’s landing lights illuminating the ground, Parmentier flew low level under the cloud up the Kiwa Valley.  He turned back before colliding with the Great Dividing Range, heading back  towards towards the last overflown town (Albury).   He then flew up along another low stretch of land to Corryong before turning back and then on another course to Goulburn before returning with even less fuel remaining.    Climbing to height was not an option – ice weighed down the aircraft and reduced the wings’ lift.  He then had insufficient fuel to make Melbourne.   He had to land – ASAP!

• (Painting Jaak de Koninck – http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

  Dutchman H. Van Brugge the Uiver’s Radio Officer frantically radioed to anyone who could DF (direction find) their transmission and help them establish their position.   Radios in 1934 were weak, only operated on a few  (300-500 KHz HF) frequenencies.  The closest help was from station “VIM” in Melbourne.

• Uiver Cafe, Albury Airport

  Clifton Mott (local newspaper editor of the Border Mail) ran outside to see the Uiver circling overhead Albury.  He knew of the Air Race.  He saw the Uiver flashing his landing lights asking for help.   He knew that the Uiver was lost.  He knew that the Uiver crew would be able to reorient themselves once they identify Albury below them.   What happened next is now embedded in aviation folklore.

• Clifton Mott called Lyle Ferris (town councilor and electrical engineer) and Mr R. F.  Turner (Deputy Postal Inspector).   Together they rushed to the Albury’s Keiwa St power station where they  flashed all of Albury’s TOWN street lights to signal “.-   .-..  -…  ..-  .-.  -.–” the Morse Code for “ALBURY”.
• The rest of the town was called to action.  Albury did not have an airfield in 1934 so the town had to improvise for the rescue.  Arthur Newnham (announcer ABC 2 CO local radio) interrupted a radio program from Melbourne and asked the town’s folk to help.     Not everyone owned cars in 1934, so it was a major feat that residents in 80 cars raced to the Albury Race Course where they created an emergency  landing strip for the circling, lost and more desperate Uiver.   In a communications effort that could not be matched with the worlds social media today, only 22 minutes elapsed between the time that Arthur requested cars to race to the race course to time that the landing strip was illuminated!
• Underneath a stormy black sky, Parmentier landed the Uiver on the makeshift soaked landing strip landed at 1:20 am, stopping (similar to QF32) just 100m from the end of the race-course’s inner fence.   The crew and passengers were now safe but not out of strife.
• The Uiver’s wheels then sank into the soaked, thick and black Albury mud.    They were out of the race! Or were they?
• Albury Mayor Alfred Waugh woke the next morning.  He amassed 300 town’s people who then arrived at the airport, used shovels to dig the Uiver out of the mud then ropes to pull the 8 tonne DC-2 up onto firmer ground.  The 3 passengers looked on with disbelief.
• Having being rescued by the people of Albury, the Uiver took off and continued to finish the great race in second place (and winning the handicap).

The Most Exciting Times for Aviation

1934 was a year amidst the greatest times for aviation.

Uiver Cafe, Albury Airport

Those who lived to see the preceding seven years witnessed:

• Charles Lindbergh fly the first non stop Atlantic crossing from the USA (New York) to Europe (Paris – Le Bourget) (1927).   Remarkably, Captain John Alcock and his navigator Lieutenant Arthur Brown completed the first (16 hour) non-stop crossing of the Atlantic from Canada (St Johns, Newfoundland) to Europe (Clifden, Ireland) eight years earlier in 1919.
• Bert Hinkler fly from England to  Australia in just 16 days (1928).   Bert achieved that alone,  without radios or any ground support.   Bert died in another England-Australia record attempt in 1933, just one year before the flight of the Uiver.
• Charles  Kingsford Smith & Charles Ulm be the first to fly across the Pacific Ocean when they flew 7,500 nm from Oakland (USA) to Australia in 1928.   15,000 Australians greeted them in Brisbane on their arrival.  300,000 welcomed them into Sydney.  Incredibly, Australians were the first to aviate across most of the major oceans (with the exception of Lindberg  crossing the Atlantic):
  • Smithy and Ulm– The Pacific
    P G Taylor – South Pacific
    Smithy – The Tasman
    P G Taylor — Indian Ocean
    Harry Hawker almost made it across the Atlantic in 1919

If aeronautics developed today as rapidly today as it did back in the 1930s, then we would have commercial passengers travelling to Mars.   Consider the expansion in aviation from 1927 when Hinkler and Smithy broke world records to the Great Race of 1934 (just seven years later). NASA’s Apollo 11 put the first man onto the moon in 1969. Manned space exploration has been stalled for the 42 years since the last moon landing (Apollo 17 of 1972).

Donald Douglas built the most iconic aircraft of the 1930s:

• Douglas build the DC-1, a 12 seater passenger plane that first flew in 1933.
• The DC-2 came soon afterwards.  The DC-2 was a 14 passenger upgrade to the DC-1.    The DC-2 was the first all-metal transport aircraft and the first to provide a separate cockpit and food galley. The DC-2 first flew on 1th May 1934.   Just 200 DC-2s were built, all between 1934 and 1939.     KLM acquired 18 DC-2s.   The Uiver DC-2 launched for the Great Race only five months after the first DC-2 took to the air!
• The DC-3 was a stretched replacement of the DC-2.  The DC-3 is one of the most iconic, successful and resilient aircraft ever produced.  World War II created an extraordinary market for the DC-3.  10,655 were built.   It was rumoured that the DC-3’s fuselage strength was so strong that the aircraft had an unlimited fatigue life.
• The aviation corridors are aflood with stories of the DC-3.    I put Trixy and Bubbles stories into my book QF32 at page 77.    My other DC-3 stories (one humourous story of a mutiny by armed passengers) did not survive the editor’s final cut)
• Click here to see one of the few remaining flying DC-2s,  aptly called “Uiver”

 Bravo KLM!

The Flight of the Uiver is an example of how a value added airline with exceptionally well trained and experienced crew (like KLM’s Captain Parmentier) are resilient and able to survive unexpected events.

Bravo Captain Parmentier

Capt. Parmentier, taken shortly before his tragic loss in the crash of his Lockeed Constellation (Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

Captain Koene Parmentier displayed exemplary command and piloting skills.

Many pilots die every year flying their aircraft under clouds along rising valleys.  The Kilmore Gap in Victoria is one example of a region that has claimed many lives for this reason.    Unwise pilots who extend flight up along valleys beyond their safe point of return,  feel the valley floor rising towards the cloud, and see the width of the valley narrow ahead.   The valley’s sides and floor converge to the point where the ground meets the cloud.

Extend too far up the valley and you will put your aircraft into a “coffin corner” situation where the valley is narrower than your aircraft’s turn diameter.

Pilots who fly in valleys under cloud must know their aircraft’s turning performance and what configuration is best at speed and altitude. They have either prepared for this contingency and know it or they don’t!  Prepared pilots know the ideal propeller RPM, engine mixture, manoeuvring flap setting and manoeuvring speed.  Pilots who first think about this when they are first caught under cloud in a rising valley, generally make their “bugout” decision too late to survive the inevitable outcome.   These pilots normally only realise their predicament just before they crash.

Average pilots put in a situation similar to the predicament faced Captain Parmentier would probably have crashed.   The average pilot probably would have extended up the valleys too far then flown into cloud and crashed into the valley wall, or pulled too tightly into a reversal turn and stalled the aircraft down to the ground.

Captain Parmentier clearly understood these issues.   He exhibited extraordinary skills.   He had the right stuff.  He showed he had the  ability to fly the Uiver in a precautionary configuration to turn tightly and navigate along valleys at night beneath the cloud and icing layers and embedded thunderstorms, constantly evaluating escape plans, sometimes executing the plans, whilst all the time leading his Co-Pilot, Navigator and Radio Engineer.

DC-3 (Painting Jaak de Koninck – http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

We Salute you Albury!

The flight of the Uiver is a ripping yarn that shows how the inhabitants of the city of Albury, Australia came to rescue the KLM DC-2, its crew and 3 passengers on that stormy night.

This event demonstrated the power of radio in those days to reach people and muster them into action to illuminate a crude landing strip at night in a country town in just 22 minutes.  At a time when not everyone owned a car, it was also a master feat to assemble so many cars in minimal time.

The QF32 event demonstrated that the social media that reported on the events on the 4th November 2010 was inferior (informing the public and coordinating a response) to that which was achieved by an Albury radio announcer 76 years earlier!

The Dutch were grateful.  KLM was grateful.    The people of Albury were called heroes.

Captain Permentier overflew Albury on the first leg of his flight home after the race.   He air-dropped a silver cigarette case.  Inside was a small Dutch flag and the message signed by all the crew and passengers:

“To all our good friends in Albury, we salute you and say farewell.”

Sadly, the original Uiver crashed later on 20th December 1934 when flying through a sandstorm near Rutbah Wells in the Syrian Desert.  Captain Parmentier died on 21st October 1948 in a Lockheed Constellation during an approach to Prestwick airport (UK) as part of a flight  from Amsterdam to New York.   The wireless operator Van Brugge was killed in 1943 when his DC-3 was shot down by Germans over the Bay of Biscay.

For their appreciation to the people of Albury, KLM purchased and gifted a replacement DC-2 aircraft to Albury.  This aircraft was also named the Uiver.  Originally built as an Eastern Air Lines passenger airliner (registration PH-AJU), it was purchased and modified by the RAAF to serve as a transport aircraft A30-11 in 36 Squadron.

After years in storage after WWII, the Uiver was restored to mimic the original KLM Uiver. The Uiver (MSN 1286) is Australia’s oldest surviving military transport aircraft.  It is the oldest of the eight surviving DC-2s and one of the most historically significant aircraft in the world.

In 1984 this (new) Uiver was restored and mounted on a pylon at the entrance to Albury Airport.

The Governor General Sir Zelman Cowan (I was his Aide-de-Camp in 1983 (QF32 p47)) unveiled the replacement Uiver on it’s plinth at Albury Airport on Sunday, 2 March 1980.  Sir Zelman said:

“I am glad that Rotary, in this, its seventy-fifth year, has cooperated with the Albury City Council in planning and establishing this memorial n this distinctive and highly appropriate form. When people see it, I hope that they will ask why, and I hope that they will be told. Those who conceived this idea have captured a good moment in our history, and there are many, certainly in my generation, who will be grateful to them.” 

Resilience

The Flight of the Uiver proved Albury’s resilience.

The actions of the engineers, radio announcer and Mayor to think outside the square and to rapidly muster extraordinary support from the locals is part of Albury’s folklore.   That the the radio announcer  could muster 80 scarce cars to the racecourse at 1:20 am within 22 minutes from the callout, is an achievement that we have not seen, nor perhaps likely to see today.  Do you remember the confusing social media that accompanied my event of 2010?

The Flight of the Uiver is a defining point for the people of Albury.   Their examples of leadership, teamwork and camaraderie put Albury on the world map 80 years ago.   These standards must not be forgotten.    This is why Sir Zelman Cowan the Governor-General unveiled the original Uiver back in 1980.    This is why the Ambassador for the Netherlands travelled to Albury this weekend to thank and honour the people of Albury.   This is why I am privileged to be a Patron of and launch the UMCT.    This is why almost every Albury citizen today knows of the Flight of the Uiver.

The story of the Flight of the Uiver gives us an insight into values and beliefs shared by the people of Albury in 1934, and how those values translated into actions that rescued the Uiver’s seven crew and passengers.

In a strange twist, understanding how the people of Albury achieved the almost impossible to recover a lost aeroplane back in the 1930s, gives us insight into why large aircraft can disappear today.

Uiver 45th Anniversary

Albury celebrated the 45th Anniversary of the Uiver on 24th October 1979.   In a spectacular recreation of the incident, cars lined up again to light up a makeshift runway.  Pilot John Lowe landed his Lockheed 12 “Silver City” on the wet field and again became bogged!   Once again the town’s folk turned up the next morning to dig out the aircraft and pull it up onto firmer ground.  John Lowe will present his extensive archives of Uiver memorabilia at the special event tomorrow night.

Uiver Memorial Community Trust  (UMCT)

The Uiver suffered when exposed to the extremes of the Albury climate.   It began to looked haggard.   It became a hazard.  It was finally  dismounted in 2002 and moved to a hangar for restoration where it sits today.

(photo: Richard de Crespigny)

I am a Patron of the DC-2 Uiver Memorial Community Trust (UMCT).

UMCT’s mission is to restore the Uiver DC-2 at Albury Airport and to put it back on proud display.

My mission is to establish the Uiver as a timeless tribute to Captain Parmentier, KLM and the people of Albury.  I hope the Uiver will stand proud in the centre of the Albury Airport passenger terminal.

… and this is why I am travelling to Albury tomorrow.

80th Uiver Anniversary

I am speaking tomorrow night (Saturday 25th August 2014) at a function in Albury to mark the 80th Anniversary of the Uiver’s landing at Albury.  Click here to attend the evening.

Peter de Crespigny, Benalla Airport, Victoria, 1944

If you like a ripping yarn, a Biggles story with a happy ending then come join us in Albury tomorrow to celebrate the best of human achievement and endeavour.

Come to the celebrations to meet:

Her Excellency Mrs Annemieke Ruigrok, Ambassador for the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Patron of the UMCT;

Councillor Kevin Mack, the Mayor of Albury;

Mr Simon Spinks, General Manager Pacific, Air France KLM;

Pieter Mol, the Co-Founder and Chairman – UMCT

Nicole Thomas, Heritage Consultant – UMCT

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

My legendary father Peter and wicked step mother Mariea de Crespigny (Note:  Mariea’s father Les Dew (21 years old) was one of the many to respond to the radio call, drove to the race course then illuminated the landing strip.

Local people who drove to the race track that night and helped un-bog the aircraft the following morning; and

over a hundred Albury heroes and their descendants.

For those who cannot join us at Albury tomorrow night, you can see and read the Uiver story that is presented in the cafe at Albury Airport.

Uiver Cafe, Albury Airport

Help the UMCT Restore-Display the Uiver

The Flight of the Uiver is a proud story that should never be forgotten.

In my position as Patron of the UMCT, I ask the Federal and State Members of Parliament, Councils, corporations and  the community to support efforts to restore the Uiver and to put it on public display inside the Albury Airport terminal.

Peter de Crespigny – Spitfire Pilot in 2013

Apres Event Report

The reception was a great success.  All seats were occupied and everyone enjoyed sharing their stories of where they or their relatives were when the Uiver came to town.

One guest reminisced that she remembered driving past the race course the next morning to see scores of people pulling on a rope to drag the Uiver up-out of the mud.   The rope snapped, sending everyone flat into the mud!

Contact UMCT

For more information about the UMCT please contact:

• Mr Pieter Mol | Co-Founder and Chairman, UMCT | e: Pieter.Mol@smartair.com.au |  m: +61 (0)438 339 611

They Said it …

Steve Creedy

Steve Creedy is one of the most respected aviation reporters.  Steve  wrote the following 10 years ago about the earliest years of aviation and the Uiver:

ROGER Pullen is close to despair. After two years of planning and hard work, his hopes of flying his 1943 biplane in the first great air race of the new millennium are fading.

Pullen’s sense of derring-do, once a hallmark of commonwealth aviators, appears not to be shared by the wimpish bean counters of modern Britain.

He fears indifference by potential sponsors will send his ambition to take his de Havilland Tiger Moth into next year’s 22,000km London-Sydney Centenary Air Race spinning into a stall.

The loss of his Tiger Moth would be a blow to organisers. They have been touting the machine as one of the race’s more colourful entries, for it is the aircraft closest to the planes that battled enormous odds to compete in the great air races on which the 2001 event is modelled.

If he does miss the race, he won’t be the only one — one entrant had a heart attack and another committed suicide — but organisers say they are quickly replaced.

They currently have 46 entrants and are confident a full field of 50 will take off from England’s famous World War II fighter base at Biggin Hill in Kent on March 11 in an aerial celebration of Australia’s centenary of Federation.

(Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

It was to have been the trip of a lifetime for Pullen, who is from Andover in southern England. “For some probably misplaced romantic reason I thought that if you were going to do this sort of race then you had to get as close to the original air pioneers — Hinkler and so on — as you could. I just felt this was the right sort of aeroplane to do it in.

`But I think we’ve been defeated by a certain amount of naivety on my part in thinking that a lot of people would see such an entry as an interesting thing and would be clamouring to sponsor it. In fact, the reverse has been true.”

Pullen thinks he has until mid-November before he has to consign his dream of entering the race to the scrap heap. He says he has already sunk about pound stg. 65,000 into the venture but needs up to pound stg. 55,000 more to pay the balance of race entry fees and install new equipment.

The races of 1919 and 1934 were pioneering adventures that paved the way for what would come to be known as the kangaroo route. Entrants in the 1919 race vied for a pound stg. 10,000 purse, offered by the Australian government for the first flight from England to Australia.

(Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

Adventurers set off independently in primitive planes with the aim of completing the arduous journey in less than 720 hours. Some couldn’t quite make that sort of deadline:

Australian entrants Ray Parer and John McIntosh were fully nine months on the course.

The race was won by Ross and Keith Smith, who started the race with true gung-ho spirit as they flew their twin-engine Vickers Vimy bomber from Hounslow, near London, in foggy weather deemed “totally unfit for flying”. The Smiths took 27 days and 20 hours, arriving at Darwin’s Fanny Bay airstrip on December 10 after almost 136 hours in the air.

As well as proving a landmark in aviation, the 1919 event played a role in the creation of Qantas. The airline’s founder, Hudson Fysh, saw the potential of air travel after he was assigned to survey the race route across Australia.

But it was “The Great Race” of 1934 that drew huge crowds and set the world’s imagination on fire with its eclectic collection of aircraft and aviators. That event, with 20 competing aircraft, was organised by Australian businessman Sir Macpherson Robertson to celebrate the centenary of the founding of Melbourne. It again offered a pound stg.

300 Alburians turn up to un-bog the Uiver 25Oct1934 (Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

10,000 first prize and gold cup.

Stunning postwar advances in aviation allowed winners C.W. Scott and Campbell Black to cross the finish line at Flemington Racecourse in their twin-engine Comet after just 71 hours.

The race was not without drama. A DC2 entered by Dutch airline KLM ran into a violent electrical storm hours from the finish. Albury residents, alerted by a radio broadcast, used their cars to illuminate the local race course so the Dutch aircraft could make an emergency landing.

Locals turned out again the next day to help pull the aircraft out of the mud and wave it off as it narrowly missed nearby trees and headed for the finish line.
The 1934 race was so popular that 60,000 people waved off the competitors in London and 50,000 Aussies greeted the Smith brothers at the finish.

(Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

Jim Eames

Jim Eames comes from Albury stock.   Indeed his journalist career started at the Albury Border Morning Mail before he moved to the Melbourne Sun.  Jim touched us also as the:   Director Public Affairs Department Civil Aviation; Press secretary and Aviation Adviser to two Federal Ministers of Civil Aviation; Director Public Affairs Qantas; and he has written five books.

Many wonderful memories!

The Great Race received massive worldwide coverage in an exciting era of aviation.  The race fronted a host of airmen who were household words in their own right.

The Uiver rescue was probably the most dramatic incident during the entire race.  It  put Albury on the world aviation map and focused world attention on the wonderful response by its people.

My father was one of those who raced to Albury airport that night to shine his car lights on the “runway”.

The Uiver rescue also established long standing ties between Holland and an Australian township that continues today.”

John Edwards

John Edwards is a former manager at Qantas

(Photo: AlburyUiver.com)

My father’s uncle was the owner of the winner of the great race: the DH.88 Comet,  called ’Grosvenor House’.   The crew was C.W.A. Scott and Tom Black.

“Grosvenor House” is on display in the Shuttleworth Collection in the UK.    The Comet’s designs evolved into the remarkable “Mosquito” that was used in WWII and the Royal Australian Air Force from 1943 to 1965.

John Fysh

Qantas A380 VH-OQB “Hudson Fysh” (Photo RDC)

John is a former traffic and catering manager at Qantas and son of the legendary Hudson Fysh (Qantas’ founder and first managing director)

A great event!

I remember that KLM/KNILM DC-2 arriving into Archerfield airfield, Brisbane after the great race.

I was eight. I had not seen an all-metal aircraft before and as it pulled up before me in the Queensland heat it began to make a sustained crinkling noise. It was the metal expanding in the heat.

Qantas A380 VH-OQB “Hudson Fysh” (Photo RDC)

At home we had a world map pinned to the wall, and pins for each competitor were moved as their position was reported.

Mildenhall to Melbourne, won by Charles W A Scott (previously a Qantas pilot) and Campbell Black in a DH Comet. The DC 2 won the handicap prize.

The DC2 had serious icing problems, so much so that C R Smith of American Airlines bipassed the DC-2 and delayed introduction until the DC-3.

KLM/KNILM when operating a service to Australia in the 1930s did not use DC2s but a Lockheed.

I remember  learning to fly Tiger Moths in 1944 at the RAAF ( 8 EFTS Narrandera):

• We had to keep clear of the regular DC-2 that called there;
• The cold mornings with fog rolling off the Murrumbidgee!!

Brian Wild

Brian is a former manager Sales Manager, Field Services Manager then General Manager Passenger Services at Qantas

I was born in Wagga Wagga, New South Wales and grew up in Henty just north of Albury.

My grandparent lived in Albury and I can still remember my grandfather telling me the story of that night,  he was one of the lucky ones with a car!

Both my wife and I still have brothers in Henty so the next time we are down we will pay a visit to the old machine.

Qantas Uniform 1940s (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

Jaak de Koninck

(QF32 for RDC by Jaak de Koninck) (www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Thank you to Jaak de Koninck for permitting me to show three of his images in this blog.

I think Jaak de Koninck is one of the best aviation artists in the world.   His paintings of aircraft and flight crew are the most passionate, emotional and provocative ever produced.

Just as the human condition is attracted to semi clad images of beautiful human bodies, so Jaak beautifully presents equally authentic and beautiful old DC-2/3 and Constellation aircraft in hangars disassembled for servicing and rebuilding.

Unfortunately, Jaak does not share my passion for the look of the new big jets (including the A380 and composites).    Nevertheless Jaak kindly painted “Nancy Bird-Walton” as a tribute to Airbus, the A380, and the QF32 passengers and crew.

I will be displaying Jaak’s other masterpieces at my presentations in Albury on Saturday and at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London on the 11th and 12th November.

Heidi and Jaak de Koninck and Coral in Belgium

If you like this  “tasting menu” of  Jaak’s images, then you will love his new compenduium of his best art that you can order at www.jaakdekoninck.be/

Thanks

I thank the following for their contributions to this posting:

• Albury City Council
• Government House Canberra
• Steve Creedy
• Jim Eames
• John Edwards
• John Fysh
• Allison Jess

We are in safe hands! Australia’s future women pilots. (Courtesy Richard de Crespigny)

I am excited to announce my next book <name withheld>.

The timing of this next book now unfortunately requires that my Big Jets book, that was 30% completed when the QF32 event occurred, must now be pushed down the queue.   Many readers have been waiting for the Big Jets book so I regret the delay.

Click here to see the Press Release from The Fordham Company.   The text is repeated below.

DWA Ambassadores Jess Gallagher (beauty) and the beast!

Thank you for your support that you have given to Coral and me over the last few years.   It has been an exciting journey travelling and meeting diverse groups around the world.  Coral and I have felt especially proud and privileged to be able to help others and “pay back” the hospitality that others have given to us.   Our travels enable us to connect people and muster support to help the aeronautical industry and organisations such as Disabled Wintersport Australia, the Charles Sturt University and the Uiver Restoration Trust.

I am also passionate to further the interests for STEM literacy in the minds of Australia’s company leaders and school children.

My Niece Gorgia Ford playing physics with helium balloons

I am the 28,000th STEMNet Ambassador registered in the UK.  This means that Australia should have (pro rata) 10,000 Ambassadors.  Professor Ian Chubb, the Australian Chief Scientist and I have a lot of work to do.   I’d be happy to be STEM Ambassador #1 in Australia and welcome all volunteers who wish to join me and lay the foundations for the future for our next generations.

Follow your passion Sam Harris, work hard, reach for the stars and come fly with me! (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

This work is not my job.  This work is my passion and I hope that I will be able to help others in the process.

My next book is just another stepping stone along that path.

I’m loving being head-down putting it all together and I hope that you will ultimately enjoy it.

Good health and best wishes to you all,

Richard

2013 IPC World Cup Thredbo (Photo RDC)

Captain de Crespigny Signs New Book Deal

Captain Richard de Crespigny, the award–winning author, internationally-acclaimed speaker, coach and Qantas A380 pilot has signed his next book to Penguin Australia.

Arguably one of the finest keynote speakers on the national and international circuit, de Crespigny has addressed many of the world’s largest companies and organisations in Australia, Asia, USA and Europe.

Numerous global television specials continue to flow from the success of his best-selling book “QF32″; highlighting team performance that saved 469 lives on board the world’s largest aircraft in late 2010, and reinforcing Richard de Crespigny as an expert in leadership and crisis management.

Flight (Love) by the Mode Control Panel light (Photo: Richard de Crespigny. Title courtesy Meatloaf)

de Crespigny’s next book, which will be released in 2016, will further cement his reputation as one of the most respected authorities on leadership, risk, crisis management and communication.

Richard de Crespigny is exclusively managed by The Fordham Company.

13-15 LITTLE BURTON ST
DARLINGHURST NSW 2010 AUSTRALIA
T +61 2 9332 9111 F +61 2 9332 9122
http://www.thefordhamcompany.com.au

The Office

Motivation

Great things happen when Motivation meets Capacity

Oliver Klaas (3 yrs old) (Photo Jason Klaas)

At QF32 page 23, I detailed how my father, rather than push me into any profession,  made opportunities available to me and nurtured my interests.  The results were profound.  After deciding as a 14 year old to join the RAAF, my marks improved from a (conceded) pass to A levels.

That was the power of motivation to me.

Forty five years after my father motivated me, Les Schirato wrote to me including this passage:

Richard I wonder if your father realised when he passed on to you his love of flight, the number of lives that you and your crew would save and the number of people that you would influence through your experience.

Thank you Les.  I will be happy if my book and experiences can help motivate others to follow their passion and “seize the day”.

Lessons

Parents – nurture your children.

Stop being disappointed with the children you have and love the ones you’ve got

Read to your children.  Tell them stories because the narratives in successful stories mimic the paths to success in life:  Challenge-Failure, Enlightenment, Development, Challenge-Success.

Don’t push but support.  Let your children create their vision for their future.   Stop being disappointed with the children you have and love the ones you’ve got.

Support passion, experimentation and growth.  Don’t do it for them but help show them the path and then let them fall, get dirty, fail, experience the challenge of effort, and to finally experience the thrill, reward and dignity of success.

Effort is the entry fee to success.   Through effort comes confidence.  Through confidence comes courage.  Through courage comes fearlessness. Through fearlessness comes contentment and success.

I am sure that Dad would have echoed these words 45 years ago!

Letters and eMails

I am astounded that my story of “QF32″ has influenced children as young as three years old.  I am amazed and pleased to discover that three year old children opening non-fiction books!

I list below some of the letters and eMails that I have received since the book has been published.  These messages are “food for thought” for parents and educators.

See also

• Canberra Grammar’s Code Cadets
• Aviation Pathways

Mars Jackson (3 years old)

Mars’ and Oliver’s stories have reset my knowledge and expectations about the remarkable learning powers of the self-motivated human mind

Mars’ and Oliver’s stories (following) show how a young child’s mind can focus on and develop knowledge in conceptual subjects such as aircraft, engines and engine failures.  These children are arranging thoughts, perceptions and anticipations at an age slightly older than when they first learn to speak!

Mars’ and Oliver’s stories support the theories (Scammons Curves) for the capacity for rapid growth during early child development.   Mars and Oliver prove my theory that great things happen when motivation meets capacity.

Mars Jackson’s mother Vienna writes (Nov 2014):

Vienna with Mars Jackson (3 yrs old)  (Photo Vienna Jackson)

You have no idea how much [your QF32 book] has meant to my son! He was over the moon, and has told everyone at “School” that “my friend Captain de Crespigny wrote in here for me and Mommy!”.   He carries the book everywhere in a special little case (it’s still in pristine condition).

I’m gonna be a good pilot like him. I won’t crash my plane. I’ll fix and and then talk about it (Mars Jackson, 3 years old)

It’s been our bedtime story, he’s always so excited, and he’ll sometimes ask to watch QF32 on ACI a few nights a week, saying “Look Mommy! Captain de Crespigny is my friend! I’m gonna be a good pilot like him. I won’t crash my plane. I’ll fix and and then talk about it, like him” (Vienna Jackson, Nov 2014)

Letter from Vienna Jackson

Oliver Klaas (3 yrs old)

Oliver Klaas (3 yrs old) (Photo Jason Klaas)

Oliver Klaas (3 yrs old) (Photo Jason Klaas)

Jason & Sophie Klaas write:  (Dec 2014)

Your book “QF32″ has made a substantial impact on our little guy. Young three year old Oliver is constantly flying around the house saying he’s Qantas A380 and he needs to get Engine 2 fixed. He is totally fascinated by flying, Qantas, A380’s and I think he’s your number one fan. I asked him what message he wants to give you and he simply said “I love you captain Richard”.

Rojan  (11 years old)

Thank you Rojan, a year 6 student at Penshurst Public School for this excellent drawing.

Zachary Johnson  (12 years old)

Dear Richard your book is really inspiring i hope to be a pilot one day i am 12.

Rohit Kosh  (12 years old)

I am a 12 year old, who wants to be a pilot.

After reading this book, i felt that the way that you had handled the situation onboard QF32 was highly professional and i also liked the way you described your flying. it was the best book i have ever read!

Thanks for writing this book, and i will be buying ‘Big Jets’ soon.

Lian Han  (12 years old)

..  i am 12 years old and want to be a pilot when i grow up ..

hello,

i have just read you book and it is amazing. i am 12 years old and want to be a pilot what i grow up. please tell me if you fly from perth to sydney please!!!!!

Thanks Liam

Patti Smith (12 years old)

.. you made me want to be a pilot even more!

Sir, you’re my role model ….  Furthermore, you made me want to be a pilot even more! 100% inspiration and 900% hard work and love of flight! This year I’m 13 so I’ll be joining the Air Cadet in Brighton. If possible, could you help me with everything to join RAF when I’m older, like sending me tips and answering my questions, it would be a great privilege and honor if a skillful and experience pilot were to help me. Thank you.

Liam Waddill (14 years old)

An awesome book even for a 14 year old!    It has so many great lessons for every grade of pilot! I thoroughly enjoyed it,  thank you Richard!

Thomas Sozou  (16 years old)

“.. this book has inspired me more to pursue this dream than anything else has ..”

Dear Richard,  From the moment I saw your interview on The Project and when they advertised your book, I don’t think I have ever been so intent on getting a book before.  5 minutes ago I finished reading your book. I went straight onto this website so that I can just say thank you so much for writing this book!

As a 16 year old wanting to be a pilot this book has inspired me more to pursue this dream than anything else has and I have you to thank. So once again, thanks for the awesome read!

Sam Clancy  (16 years old)

“..  I felt like I was in a jump-seat, sitting behind you as shit hit the fan.”

Richard, I know you are a busy man, but I hope you can take the time out of your day to read what I have to say.

Two years ago, I made a decision I wanted to be a pilot. Now as I’m only 16 now, you’d probably just say “pfft, who cares, teenagers change their minds all the time…” Well, I can honestly say after receiving the book as an early Christmas present from my grandparents on Sunday, my decision has been completely and utterly reaffirmed. I’ve read it during absolutely all of my spare time, in and around working 36 hours in the past four days at Redcliffe Aerodrome (YRED) (I have scored a paid position at an aircraft maintenance company for the school holidays)

Your words are inspiring. Not just in terms of your aviation knowledge but also of your ability to be so easy to relate too. The whole time I was reading, I felt like I was in a jump-seat  sitting behind you as shit hit the fan. If I ever get the opportunity to meet you, I honestly would probably just break into tears, you shouldn’t be seen as an inspiration just to people related to the incident, or people in or interested in the aviation industry, but to the wider community. The way you kept a cool head in such an intensely stressful situation is beyond comprehension to me. I just hope that if in the future, I face a situation similar to the one that was bestowed on QF32, I act and react just as you did.

I’ve never been a big fan of Qantas (but that’s sort of come from my family…) yet I hope my views change when I fly with them mid-next year, whether or not you are at the controls.

I wish you clear skies and smooth landings, Captain.  Cheers, Sam.

Tim Hitchins   (16 years old)

“.. your book was inspiring and made me want to follow that dream even more. I’ve decided to put more effort into my school work to get me the extra mile, and I wanted you to know that your story is the reason.”

Hi Richard, I’ve just finished year 10, I’m sixteen and I began my flight training earlier this year after it being a dream since before I can remember.   I also joined the Australian Air Force Cadets when I was twelve, and that really gave a boost to my hopes for becoming an aviator.  I fly an Aeroprakt A22LS Foxbat with the Hastings District Flying Club in Port Macquarie after winning a scholarship for partial funding of my training.

I was on a school excursion a couple of months ago to Canberra and picked up a copy of QF32 in Parliament House and bought it on the spot. I couldn’t put it down for three days after until I finished, in between all our activities.  I am now almost finished re-reading it for the second time!

It’s always been my dream to fly A380’s for QANTAS ever since the announcement of their production, and your book was inspiring and made me want to follow that dream even more. I’ve decided to put more effort into my school work to get me the extra mile, and I wanted you to know that your story is the reason.

I would love to know when I can get a copy of “Big Jets” to shed more light on my chosen career path and the machines that make our world go ’round.

I look forward to a reply from you and definitely hope once I finally step onto an A380 (hopefully next year because I still haven’t been on one!!), that you will be our Pilot-In-Command.

Joseph Zabaneh (18 years old)

” I am even more motivated ..”

Thank you for writing the greatest book i have ever read. As i always wanted to become an airline pilot and after reading QF32 I am even more motivated.   Hopefully i will see you around the airport and meet you in person.

Rob (19 years old)

“.. Although I have only started reading regularly within the last 6 months, ‘QF32′ was by far the best book that I have ever read ..”

Dear Richard.

As an aviation enthusiast, it was a great receiving your book for Christmas. Although I have only started reading regularly within the last 6 months, ‘QF32′ was by far the best book that I have ever read. It was a great insight into what goes on in the skies, and is a brilliant example of teamwork in an environment under a great deal of pressure.

As I mentioned, I’m a keen aviation enthusiast, and having read your book, I have absolutely no doubts that the A380 is the greatest and safest plane in the sky. I do quite a bit of international travelling, and always try to get on the A380. I know that if I hear your voice over the intercom at the beginning of the flight we’ll be in safe hands.

Many thanks and happy flying, Rob

Marc Loertscher (~20 years old)

“..  your story really captivated me and has further inspired me on my journey to becoming ..”

Dear Captain Champion de Crespigny,  If you can recall, you presented a presentation last year at Griffith University Nathan Campus and I was one of the attending students that night. After your presentation I was absolutely blown away by the momentousness of the situation itself and the high level of professionalism and skill you displayed, although you constantly highly attribute the successful outcome of the flight upon both the flight crew and cabin crew.

As an aspiring pilot to-be your story really captivated me and has further inspired me on my journey to becoming an airline pilot. My personal hunger for knowledge about aircraft, the flight environment, the human body and other associated factors has developed extensively and along with my level of discipline.

 I would also like to commend you on your book, it is a fabulous text and wonderful read to both aviation and non-aviation folk.  Although I am very early along my journey to becoming a pilot, your transcripts from within your book have also helped given me the confidence, determination and a sense of achievability in pursuing a career within one of the most advanced, complex and controlled industries in the world.

I look forward to your next book, which I will definitely be purchasing and applying to my life!

And lastly, I would just like to thank you for the contribution you make to our aviation community and level of professionalism you so astoundingly displayed upon QF32. Your care and concern for the passengers when within the boarding lounges after the flight, from answering all their question to giving your own personal phone number was incredible; truly their are some things that not all flight schools, checks, simulations or lectures can you teach you to being the best pilot one can be.  [edited out] …

P.S.  My friends couldn’t believe your ‘fly the nipple’ technique, they had to read it themselves before they believed me!   It was comforting to know that the [edited out]  disciplined military pilots have a great sense of humour too!

David Montuori (23 years old)

“.. I particularly agree with your belief that once an interest has been found, we must tap into this to find the drive to excel”

 I am a 23 year old pilot who has been following the results of QF32 for some time now. I recently started reading your book and I felt compelled to tell you just how much I have enjoyed reading it. It is not all that often that I complete a book with such hunger and curiosity.

Your dedication and passion for your craft is very admirable. I sometimes get disheartened by the lack of pride and professionalism that I find apparent in too many of my peers in this industry. Reading your book, particularly the first third has really given me comfort knowing there are others like yourself who have a passion for this privilege we have. I particularly agree with your belief that once an interest has been found, we must tap into this to find the drive to excel.

Once again thank you for putting your life and experiences into words as this has given the next generation a bar to aim for in excellence, dedication and professionalism.

Michael N

“.. inspired me to push myself further and pursue my goals ..”

Richard’s book is truly unique, it has inspired me to push myself further and pursue my goals,and it makes me believe i can become a pilot. Thank you, Richard.

Zac Clarke

Hi Richard. What an amazing book! I honestly don’t read books at all unless I have too, but this book was one that I actually desperately wanted to read. Your tale is an amazing one, and your background is spectacular.  I am looking forward to finishing QF32 and have registered for your next book.

Sean Griffin (23 years old)

“Thank you for opening my mind to paths unknown and seeing that a passion can lead to greater things.”

Just reading more of your book and I am amazed at what had to transpire for you to get into the RAAF and to excel and to achieve your dream.

Reading your book has given me a sense of get up and go and to excel in my studies at TAFE.   I know what I can do now, so now it’s time to put my knowledge and skills to work.

It’s one thing to say your going to do something but it’s another to put it into action, that what I’ve learnt from the first half of your book.  Plus to have a passion and drive to do something good ….

Thank you for opening my mind to paths unknown and seeing that a passion can lead to greater things.

Jordan Smith

“..  inspired me to chase my dream  ..”

Thank You for your interesting and enthralling read! As someone who has been proudly flying QF since I was 8 weeks old, I am sincerely indebted to the incredible crews such as yourself who inspired me to chase my dream to be involved in Civil Aviation.

Below is the Occasional Address that I delivered at the 2014 Graduation Ceremony for the Arts Faculty at Charles Sturt University (CSU) at the Wagga Wagga campus on 15 December 2014.

Deputy Chancellor of Charles Sturt University – Peter Hayes,
Vice-Chancellor and President – Andrew Vann,
Graduates of the Faculty of Arts – you did it!
Proud parents and partners of these impressive graduates,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Thank you for the privilege to receive the award  “Doctor of the University honoris causa” , and thank you for asking me to deliver this Occasional Address.

Professor Mick Keelty and Professor Nick O’Brien (Head of School) of the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security

My wife Coral and I have enjoyed working with the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security that is an important part of CSU.   Under the guidance of Nick O’Brien and Mick Keelty, we hope to continue our support for the police and emergency services.

I see here many young happy faces of energetic people, the sort of person I was 35 years ago when I graduated from university. I’d like to spend my time here if I were going through University again!

I graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree, which is a bit like a Bachelor of Arts degree in that it qualified me as a jack of all trades but a master of none. I worried if my degree would be useful back then.

My key concerns when I graduated 35 years ago were:

• What will I do now?
• Do I have the skills to succeed?
• Will I have a job?
• What are they going to expect of me out there? and
• Will I make a difference?

Perhaps you have the same concerns now.

I do not have these doubts today. My life changed four years ago, when I had an incident that required I synthesize my life’s knowledge and learning to manage a situation that I had not planned for and that no one had expected.

The QF32 incident vindicated my thoughts, values and beliefs that I am happy to share with you today.

You need to be pirates!

Peter Hayes: Deputy Chancellor of Charles Sturt University

Using a nautical analogy for your careers, you need to be adventurers on the open seas – not just the sailors and passengers. You must be brave, follow your passions, defend your beliefs, challenge the status quo, and be unafraid to lead. Only then will you make a difference. Only then will you change the world.

You must also survive in our changing world, a world that is becoming more interlaced with technology.

During this talk I will use the acronym STEM, which stands for Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths.

In 20 years time 80% of jobs created in Australian will require STEM literacy, and 1 in 3 jobs will be at risk of being replaced by robots

Jaak De Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be

STEM is everywhere yet few people understand how much we depend upon it;

• from our smart phone’s alarm we turn off every morning,
• to the rainbow sunrise,
• to using satellite navigation in our electronic cars and the aircraft we fly,
• to our computerised and networked offices.
• from our genome map that predicts how long we will live
• to in vitro fertilization that helps us reproduce,
• to radiotherapy to treat our cancers then finally,
• to the defibrillators and pacemakers that delay our final departure.

STEM is challenging and changing our world. Today only 11% of Australians live outside urban areas and this proportion is reducing by 1.2% per annum! Employment is shifting from the farms into the cities. Country shops, newspapers, radio stations and churches are closing. Advertising dollars are moving from the TV, print and radio to the Internet. Even local food suppliers like SPC in Shepparton are under threat from foreign imports.

Andrew Vann: Vice-Chancellor and President of Charles Sturt University

We need to have a National conversation about our industrial future.   This month, Scientific American published that currently 60% of all new US jobs now require basic STEM literacy.    In 20 years time 80% of jobs created in Australian will require STEM literacy, and 1 in 3 jobs will be at risk of being replaced by robots.

[Australia] is the only OECD country without a science or technology strategy- Ian Chubb

These figures are alarming because science funding in Australia is now at a 30 year low. Just three months ago Professor Chubb, Australia’s Chief Scientist stated that “[Australia] is the only OECD country without a science or technology strategy”. So we are breeding future generations that will be less equipped to think critically and cope with the unrelenting change. To use the nautical analogy again: We are trying to survive in a sea of unrelenting change, our future is at stake, and to survive we will all have to Surf along the Edges of Chaos!

“We need to have a National conversation about our industrial future”

So, how do we make ourselves resilient to the threats of the new world?

We need to be STEM literate. We need to be able to converse and discuss topics in Science Technology, Engineering and Maths. I’m not suggesting that you should become a computer programmer or a scientist who invents a cure for cancer. I’m talking about your ability to appreciate and not be afraid of the rapidly changing world. You need to be able to understand STEM and to be able to translate it into forms that others can understand. Because the people who have STEM literacy will have the confidence to expect the unexpected and not be startled by change.

“We need to be STEM literate”

I have taken my first steps to support STEM. I am the 28,000 th STEM Ambassador in the United Kingdom. The UK government has invested over 600 million pounds to promote STEM in schools, universities, corporations and governments. However there there are no STEM organisations in Australia for universities, corporates or the government. So I think that I might be the first STEM Ambassador in Australia. I will work with any organisation to help Australians embrace STEM technologies, and I am confident of success.

Jaak De Koninck (http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

But what will you do? How does an Arts graduate stay resilient in a STEM world?

Your future is in translating STEM for the masses. Let me explain. Einstein said: “Imagination is more important than knowledge.” Einstein knew that acquiring “knowledge” gives us the ability to predict the future but at the cost of narrowing or losing our imagination. In other words for the Arts Faculty students, the scientists and engineers that create technologies are the least able to explain and communicate them to the public in contexts that they can understand. Let me give you an example.

Australia was the third country in the world ever to have launched a satellite from its own land. Yet Australians lost interest in satellites, we lost the passion for space, and so the government let our space industry die. Our space industry needed a poet like the American poet James Dickey.

“Poetry! They should’ve sent a poet. So beautiful. So beautiful…” – James Dickey

Blue Marble (Photo NASA)

James Dickey was inspired by the Apollo space program. James tied poetry and space exploration together in his moving poem called “Apollo” that included an observation from one of the Apollo astronauts, who was speechless during his spacewalk when he gazed down upon the earth and tried to explain what he experienced:

There are “No–no words. No words to describe it! Poetry! They should’ve sent a poet. So beautiful. So beautiful… I had no idea.”

Your job as a translator is to explain and make understandable to the masses what the back-office inventor and engineer cannot explain.

We are all immersed in a STEM world. If Steve Jobs of Apple were here now, he would tell you:

• Challenge the Status Quo
• Keep true to your values and beliefs,
• Embrace STEM, don’t be frightened by it, and
• Inspire us with your words, pictures, videos, dance, songs and prayers.

Dad, Coral, Sophia, me, Mariea (WSM), Alex

Will you be able to translate science talk to the masses? Let’s look at a few contemporary challenges.

We all dream of a world with perfect health? Will you be able to translate science talk to the masses on topics such as the ethics of gene manipulation and selection, artificial body parts, diet, obesity and vaccination. Will we permit terminally ill humans to leave with the same dignity that we grant our pets?

Will you be able to participate in debates about the mining and energy industries? The government has been writing cheques funded by coal and uranium that fewer people want to cash. Should we be harnessing more renewable energy sources such as solar energy and tides?

Can Australia’s industries be part of the solution (and not the problem) of building machines that will think, reason and have consciousness just like the human mind? When we design robots that will greet us at the door with a glass of wine when we return home, who is going to critically analyse the robot’s features such as:

• personalities
• how fast they learn, and
• will they be limited in their ability to think, feel and to react?

Jaak De Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be

These are the great challenges for the writers and philosophers, the singers and painters. We live in an exciting world full of change and opportunity. But don’t get lost. Don’t panic. Let your values and beliefs be your compass. Let you passion be your drive.

I have changed the direction of my life many times over the past 35 years. Every time I have always followed my passions.

I was very fortunate to have eight teams supporting me when the QF32 incident challenged us. As a result 469 passengers and crew home to their families and loved ones. The 29 pilots and cabin crew on board QF32 mattered. We made a difference – and you will too.

Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela were the individuals who during my life influenced the most people and made the greatest changes to humanity. How did they achieve this?

• They were not scientists of engineers,
• They didn’t succeed because of money, politics, freedom, public relations, social media or armies, because they had none of these.
• All they possessed were their values and beliefs that they proudly maintained, and their ability to explain why these were important for others.

If Gandhi, King and Mandela can change the world, then you can change the world. You only have to try.

We made a difference – and you will too

Revisiting the key questions at the start of this talk:

• What will I do when I finish University? – Follow your passion!
• What are they going to expect of me out there? – Think differently. Read, research, and reject bias, group think and the “status quo”.
• Will I make a difference? – Absolutely. Because your work will be truly authentic when you can elucidate your values and beliefs.  This is when people will understand WHY you do the things that you and this is when they will follow you.

Jaak De Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be

As graduates of CSU, you have the skills to influence others, change beliefs, unite cultures and change the world. Every day is a gift, it cannot be repeated. Live each day well, to the max, with no limits.

I am privileged to talk to you today. Coral and I congratulate you on your great achievements and we wish you fulfilling, exciting and successful careers.

If you want a career on the high seas, don’t join the navy. Become a pirate instead!

You will feel intimidated some time in the future – much like sailing a boat on stormy seas. You’ll be “surfing the edge of chaos” and see only risks and uncertainty ahead. But never give up – never surrender. In these times remember the words of writer Tom Peters: “If you want a career on the high seas, don’t join the navy. Become a pirate instead!”

Because it’s the people like you, the graduates of Charles Sturt University, the crazy ones who think that you can change the world, who are the ones that will!

The ships are fully loaded, there’s blue sky to the horizon and there a brisk wind aloft, . It’s time to set sail.  It’s time to be a Pirate!

QF32 Passenger Johanna Friis (Courtesy Johanna Friis)

Why am I a pilot?

 It’s to give each passenger the safest and best experience possible on my aircraft – it’s to “Make Their Day”

It’s not for the seven licence recertification tests that I must pass each year to continue in my profession. It’s not for the time and energy it takes to become confident and prepared to expected the unexpected.  It’s not for the 20 hour “duty periods” and jet lag that shreds my circadian rhythms that takes days to recover from.   It’s not to meet the occasional stressed passenger who boards the aircraft having taken prescription drugs then later mixes them into a dangerous alcoholic cocktail that transforms him/her into a Jekyll and Hyde.

It’s for the joy to command the largest most advanced, comfortable, powerful, smooth and quiet flying machine on the planet and to share my passion for flight with like minded passengers.  It’s to share the treasures with passengers, when they lift the light shades to view the earth below as few others have the privilege to see it.  It’s to give each passenger the safest and best experience possible on my aircraft – it’s to “Make Their Day”.

Here is a photo taken from the observer’s seat in the cockpit yesterday morning when I flew into London’s Heathrow airport.

How can I describe this view?   I can’t.   So I will again refer to the poetry of James Dickey, who was inspired by the Apollo space program. James’s poem called “Apollo” expressed the thoughts of one of the Apollo astronauts looking down from space who was also lost for words:

[There are] no–no words. No words to describe it! Poetry! They should’ve sent a poet. So beautiful. So beautiful…

View from the cockpit observer’s seat – 7,000 feet to the north of  London, looking south  at 0630 am,  20 December 2014. Click to expand to high resolution.    Free usage if acknowledge “Richard de Crespigny”

I will be happily airborne in an A380 heading home for most of Christmas day.    There will probably be children on board my flight who will be sad to not be with family and friends on this day.   There is an excellent chance that we will encounter a transonic red sled also busily navigating the skies.  Pack the Christmas stockings!

Merry Christmas  and Happy Holidays

Richard and Coral

See also

What Air Crash Investigations didn’t tell you about QF32 & Airbus

Four Years Later . . .

(Painting Jaak de Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

The thirteenth reprint of QF32 was released just after the 4th anniversary of the QF32 flight.   This latest reprint includes the following text at page 352  …

My life has changed since the QF32 event.

My greatest reward has been meeting the QF32 passengers worldwide. We share a bond that will never be broken.

QF32 has made a difference. The final ATSB report vindicated  all crewmembers’ actions and airlines have changed procedures to align with our actions.  I remain profoundly proud and grateful to the other pilots and cabin crew (under the direction of Michael Von Reth) who enabled 469 passengers and crew to return home to their loved ones.

Mars Jackson – 3 yrs old (Photo Vienna Jackson)

I never thought of myself as an author or motivator so I am heartened to receive reviews from nine to 92-year-old readers.

My greatest joy was to receive a letter from the mother of three-year-old Mars Jackson who has been inspired by QF32 and keeps it by his side: ‘Look Mummy! Captain de Crespigny is my friend! I’m going to be a good pilot like him! I won’t crash my plane. I’ll fix it, like him!’

My greatest reward has been meeting the QF32 passengers worldwide.

I enjoy presenting workshops worldwide about safety, security, resilience, leadership, teamwork, decision-making and crisis management. I am deeply entrenched, writing my next book.

Committed to help PTS sufferers.

My challenge now is to give back and to help others. Surprisingly, most of the readers’ questions relate to Post Traumatic Stress (page 312). I realise now that over 50 per cent of our elders suffer PTS, so I explain that PTS can be treated and there can be growth from trauma.

My family’s lives have changed too. Coral, Alexander, Sophia and I enjoy working with Disabled Wintersport Australia to give the disabled the confidence in the snow, to help them find their courage and to reach their full potential.

I am a STEM Ambassador in the UK supporting the Bloodhound Super Sonic Car project.  I am trying to establish and support STEM initiatives in Australian schools, universities, corporations and governments.

Disabled Wintersport Australia – Perisher – 2013

Look out for me the next time you are lucky enough to fly in an A380. I still walk the aisles and love talking to passengers.

Stop me, say ‘Hi, Rich,’ and you’ll make my day.

There’s blue sky ahead and the fuel tanks are full. It’s time to release the brakes again.

It’s time to FLY!

QF32 Passenger Johanna Friis

QF32 passengers Carolyn & Derwyn Jones

QF32 passenger Suzie Patchett

QF32 passenger Claire Ryan

Hello Captain Rich,

(iStockPhoto)

My question is regarding the recent German-wings crash over the French alps.

1. In an airline multi crew environment. How is it that the Captain can leave his fellow co-pilot all by himself in the cockpit alone to monitor, fly and manage the aircraft systems?
2. Even if the pilot was locked out and reported bangs were heard on the door, an attempt by him (the Captain) to get back into the cockpit were heard on the CVR; how is it that the Captain didn’t use the cockpit-outside door emergency pass-code to gain entry?
3. What’s your opinion on this. A man passionate about flying, could he really pull forward a deliberate yet inhumane move?
4. If situations and events such as this occur, how can passengers look forward to trust their pilots flying the aircraft?

I am shocked at this incident and am a nervous flier myself. Looking forward for an insight to this Dear Captain Rich.

Regards,

David Blightman

Photo: RDC

Dear David,

Flying today is safer than at any other time in the 111 years since powered flight.

Charles Rolls (of Rolls-Royce) was the first Briton to die (1910) in an aircraft accident, from a fractured skull when the tail of his Wright Flyer broke off at a height of 20 feet.

Today, one aircraft passenger dies for every 123,000 passenger-years of flight.  I calculate that flying is about 2,600 times safer than driving cars and that only one in 4.5 pilots (of 4 engine aircraft) will ever experience an engine failure during their entire career.

Yet our insatiable appetite for the immediate 24 hour news cycle and our demands for answers (where there might be none) drives many of us down the illogical mental road to fear of flying, stress, dread and paranoia.

Fear can be good. Fear makes us change our behaviour, mitigate threats and thus increase our chance of survival. However  it is counter-productive to the human condition to fear something that is statistically safe.

“Flying today has never been safer than any other time in the 111 years since powered flight”

Ranking Dangerous Activities

The “Micro Mortality” or uMort is a measure of risk.   Ronald A. Howard defined the uMort as a one in a millionth chance of death. 

Coral burning uMorts on the “wine trail” at Myrtleford, Victoria

Each of the following activities increases your risk of death by 1 uMort:

• 1/430 th of a base jump
• 1/7 th of a parachute jump,
• each 2.1 feet of a 26,000′ mountain climb,
• 18 hours of human life,
• 1 horse ride,
• 2 ecstasy tablets,
• 6 miles (10 km) by motorbike,
• 10 miles (18 km) by bicycle,
• 12 miles (19 km) by private aircraft,
• 17 miles (27 km) by walking,
• 230 miles (370 km) by car,
• 666 roller coaster rides,
• 6,000 miles (9,656 km) by train, or
• 9,300 miles (14,880 km) by commercial jet aircraft (RDC calculated for EOY 2014)

Please read my answers below to your questions:

Q 1.  In an airline multi crew environment. How is it that the Captain can leave his fellow co-pilot all by himself in the cockpit alone to monitor, fly and manage the aircraft systems?

Emirates closing on us @ 1,800 kilometres per hour (the addition of both A380s’ ground speeds) 4,000 feet above.

Automated commercial jet aircraft can be flown safely in low workload situations (during the cruise, no threats such as busy airspace, adverse weather, terrain, fuel, aircraft serviceability) by one well trained, experienced and knowledgeable pilot.

The USA Federal Aviation Authority requires first officer pilots to have at least 1500 hours of flying experience.

Cockpits are designed so that any one of the two pilots can operate the aircraft.  Commercial jet aircraft are piloted by two pilots to share tasks and for resilience in the case that one pilot becomes incapacitated.   Pilots are required (and tested in simulators) to show that they can recover their aircraft to a safe landing when the other pilot is incapacitated.     Pilots are rarely incapacitated.

Pilots must be able to visit the toilet during flight.

Qantas Uniform 1940s (RDC)

A cabin attendant who is positioned in the cockpit to relieve a pilot who has taken a toilet break, is NOT permitted (by law) to take a control seat and is NOT capable of  flying the aircraft.   Such a cabin attendant would be available only to assist the absent pilot to return to the flight deck .

It is interesting that the third objective of the  future ACROSS project is to have passenger jet aircraft piloted by just one pilot.

Q 2.  Even if the pilot was locked out and reported bangs were heard on the door, an attempt by him (the Captain) to get back into the cockpit were heard on the CVR; how is it that the Captain didn’t use the cockpit-outside door emergency pass-code to gain entry?

Passenger living the pilots’ dream in the left seat of the A380

Wait for the report on this topic.

Perhaps the captain did use the emergency procedure to try to reenter the cockpit, but that these efforts were thwarted by the conscious actions of the pilot in the cockpit.  The captain would have been able to re-enter the cockpit if the pilot in the cockpit had been incapacitated.

Q 3.  What’s your opinion on this. A man passionate about flying, could he really pull forward a deliberate yet inhumane move?

History teaches us that humans have always been capable of inhumane acts.   It must be the aim of a rational and compassionate society to set the values and beliefs, maintain standards, and to create procedures to remove the threat of inhumane terrorists, criminals, politicians, leaders …

Q 4.  If situation and events such as this occur, how can passengers look forward to trust their pilots flying the aircraft?

Keep calm David!   Fear is the barrier between ignorance and understanding. Move beyond fear and think sensibly (street-smart) about risk, safety, security, privacy and reprisal.

I feel safe.  I hope I can make you feel safe

Lost in Space (Painting Jaak de Koninck – http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Over the last 40 years, 591 people have died world-wide in 11 commercial jet suicide events.  591 people in 40 years.  Comparing this world wide death rate with USA death rates, we find that 591 people die in the USA at least:

• every 1 day from preventable hospital deaths   (1 day based on data for 1999.  For 2014,  this report suggests that more than 400,000 people died from preventable deaths every year (or 591 people every 13 hours!) or
• every 7 days from gun deaths or
• every 7 days from road deaths.

Even worse, 591 people die on the world’s roads every FOUR hours.

Last year in aviation there was:

• 1 hull loss per 4.4 million flights
• 12 fatal aircraft accidents in 38 million flights
• 641 fatalities for 3.3 billion seats occupied by passengers

My aim in providing these statistics is to avert unnecessary panic and fear.

Think about, understand, measure and appreciate risk.   You have no more control as a patient in a hospital than you do as a passenger in an aircraft.   If you are happy to be treated in a hospital, then you should feel happy to fly in commercial jet aircraft.

If the USA enforced the same safety standards and responsibilities onto the hospital industry as it enforces on aviation, then the hospital industry would be shut down within one week.

(Photo RDC)

Don’t Panic

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

Don’t be drawn in by the media to be fearful of flight.

Be patient and let the investigators do their job.  Wait for their report.  Only when the full facts are published will it be the time for the industry to react in a logical and constructive manner.   We need to be careful to not overreact and take a step too far. 

Changes must be targeted to address the “elephant in the room” that is  mental health and post traumatic stress.    Good airlines already address these threats by espousing a “Just Culture” that encourages pilots to self report accidental errors and sickness without fear of reprisal.  My airline goes further by checking  and recertifying  pilots six times per year, and by funding 50% of my union’s costs to run the “PAN” support initiative for pilots in need.

Changes must also be measured to ameliorate fear, rather than to impetuously over-regulate the industry which might create additional stress, anger and harm.

We don’t want over-reaction like we have experienced:

• Post 911, the convergence of disparate government databases into one big database, that had the unfortunate consequence of providing Private Bradley Manning access to (release) almost all USA secrets, or
• Post 911 fear of flying that resulting in about an extra 2,200 USA road fatalities as a result of people driving rather than flying.

I recommend the book “Beyond Fear” by Bruce Schneier about becoming “street smart” when responding to threats and risk, and understanding the compromises that our governments make for our privacy, safety and security.   Being “street smart” means:

• reading beyond the headlines,
• getting a feel for numbers, risks and threats,
• feeling for efficacy of countermeasures, and
• making sensible security tradeoffs.

RIP the world’s best friend and traveller – Neil Armstrong in an A380 simulator, who said “expect the unexpected”

Being “street smart” means that you should fly with the airline that satisfies your appetite for safety and risk.  Safety is structured.   Heavy (large) aircraft are designed to satisfy more stringent certification and safety standards than the smaller (light) aircraft.

You get the experience that you pay for.  The four pilots who crewed my last flight to the USA had 61,000 hours of combined flying experience:

• 17,000 hrs – Captain   (ex air force)
• 23,000 hrs – First Officer (I think the most experienced-capable A380 First Officer in the world)
• 13,000 hrs – Second Officer 1  (ex air force)
• 8,000 hrs – Second Officer 2   (ex air force)

There are many ultra-safe airlines in the world.  The  common denominator for these airlines is that they pass the bi-annual IOSA audit that is a prerequisite for membership into the IATA group.  The world wide hull loss of 1 per 4.4 million flights improves to 1 per 8.3 million flights for member airlines of the IATA group.  Find independent reviews at AirlineRatings.com.

I am proud to be a pilot within this 111 year old impressive and safe industry.  Every aviation professional is the caretaker for protecting our safety culture and for saving lives.

99.9999% of pilots go to work with the right attitude to look after you – the passenger.   I observe these pilots every time I go to work and walk through the airport terminals. We are a band of brothers and sisters with you being the reason we wake up, we sweat in the simulators to become resilient and we farewell you at the aircraft door at the end of a long flight.

The remarkable and resilient Sully Sullenberger

We can  never guarantee safety.  Just as drownings kill 372,000 people annually (591 every 14 hours),  people will continue to swim, go to hospital and people will tragically die in transportation accidents.

My mission is to keep my passengers safe.

I feel safe.  I hope I can make you feel safe.  Please tell me if you do not feel safe.

Kind Regards

Rich

For More Information

Click here to see how aviation safety has steadily improved over the last 72 years.

“I have cringed at the utter misrepresentation of aviation facts”  writes Airbus pilot Eric Auxier

Dread and the Fear of Flying (part 1 of 3)

Version 2 – 1 April 2015

Flares of venting gas soften the Iraqi sunset. 28Nov2013 (Photo RDC)

“In Search of …  ”  Painting by Coplu (Coplu.Com)

Nerd Alert!

• I compiled this blog for Airbus pilots and ground staff who need to access the Airbus FOCT manuals.   It is written for those who wish to learn more about how to make full use of the impressive (but undocumented) search features in the Airbus FOCT.
• This blog has NO relevance for any other people. In fact this blog will make NO SENSE to people outside this piloting community.
• Some of the information is technical and might not make sense to people with less than advanced computer skills.
• The following is NOT official information.   This information is NOT provided in the FOCT.  This is my personal information that I offer in the hope that it may help you.

How to search Airbus FOCT manuals more efficiently

My father, Peter de Crespigny, 88, taking off in a Spitfire, September 2013.

The Airbus Flight Operations Consultation Tool (FOCT) comprises the user interface (Java) and data files that present relevant Airbus and airline manuals to pilots and other interested parties.   My A380 FOCT  for the A380 comprises 2.4GB of data spanning 2,600 files.  The FOCT supports other Airbus aircraft types.

I investigated the FOCT in detail in 2008 before the first A380 arrived at my airline.  I assisted my airline to optimise the our electronic manuals and made recommendations to Airbus to improve the FOCT.  The “DU Search” was one facility that I request in 2008 and that was subsequently released in the FOCT update in 2014.

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

The FOCT provides limited documentation on how to search itself for information.

I provide the following notes to help others search the FOCT more effectively.  I use these tools every time I search the FOCT for data.  I have shared this guide with my airline and friends, all who later comment how it helped them to make faster and more narrowed searches.

I hope that this information helps you.

Understanding the FOCT Search Indexes

The FOCT uses the Lucene search engine.   Lucene is an open source, high-performance Java utility that provides search functions for compatible index files for almost unlimited data.

It is possible to view the structure of the FOCT indices.  The Luke (Lucene Index Toolbox) toolkit can open Lucene indices in the FOCT manuals, displaying the structure and showing interesting statistics.   For instance, the FOCT supports Lucene version 1 indices (Lucene is currently up to version 5).  Opening up the ECAM index reveals that there are currently 1,229 ECAM checklists in the A380 (up slightly from the 1,225 checklists that I described at page 157 of “QF32″ that I produced in 2011).  Likewise, the TITLE index reveals that there are just 6,931 pages in the A380 Flight Crew Operations Manual (up from 6,334 in January 2010) and just 257 pages in the Flight Crew Training Manual. This is irrelevant information except perhaps to consider the saving and benefits in using electronic rather than paper manuals. Given that an FCOM  “page” can span any length, we would need to use AT LEAST seven reams of paper to print just the FCOM and FCTM!

Every FOCT manual has a corresponding set of indices that are used to enable searches of that manual:

• FCOM – contents, context, ecam, title
• FCTM – contents, title
• MEL – contents, ecam, func_code, title

FOCT Indices:

The FOCT includes many instances of the following indices:  (important indices bolded)

• contents – Contains a listing of the unique words (except for stop words) for the selected manual.  For example the FCOM contains 18,000 unique words.   The “contents” index is used by default.  Word Search window uses this index.   For example: “contents:fire” or “fire”
• context – index not populated.
• ecam – ECAM checklists.  This index is used for internal FOCT purposes and is not user-friendly.  So there is little point searching this index.   For example, the Word Search of “ecam:al_29_10_060_01″ retrieves the ECAM “HYD G(Y) RSVR LEVEL LO” checklist.
• func_code  – Index of MEL entries.  For example, to find the “78-30-04 Thrust Reverser Lock” ECAM search using either the Word Search using “func_code:78-30-04″, or the Functional Code search using  “78-30-04″
• title – this is the page name / global display unit / GDU.   The discussion of his topic is now outside the scope of this document.  The title search was useful before Airbus updated the FOCT to provide the “DU Search” window.   For example, the DU Search of “4192” finds the same Autopilot page as the Word Search of the page “title: lg01087*”

Search using the following expression:   [indexname:]search_expression

• indexname is one of the index names listed above (in lower case).  The colon marks the end of the index name  (ie   func_code:23-72-01)
• search-expression is the alphanumeric search text

Understanding the FOCT Search Windows

The FOCT includes search windows for:

• Word Search   – defaults to “contents” index
• Interface Search – enable by setting “isInterfaceSearchActivated = true” in  ..\foct-conf\ct-access-search.config
• Index Search – Index not populated.  Not worth enabling.
• ECAM Search
• Functional Code Search –  defaults to ” “func_code” index
• DU Search – Search Display Units

As described previously, the Functional Code Search is similar to the Word Search, except that the Functional Code Search defaults to the “func_code” index.  For example, these two searches both locate the same MEL  (DDG) page for “24-21-01 Engine Electrical Generator”:

• FUNCTIONAL CODE SEARCH – “24-21-01″    (defaults to func_code index)
• WORD SEARCH  – “func_code:24-21-01″   (forced to search “func-code” index instead of default “contents” index)

FOCT Search

Peter de Crespigny (Spitfire pilot at 88 years)

Knowledge is everywhere.  The challenge for knowledge management systems is to  quickly identify then dive for just the pearls of wisdom rather than drown the in the ocean of big data.

The FOCT’s success as an electronic bookshelf depends upon the quality of the search engine and your ability to quickly find just the information that you need.   Unfortunately the FOCT provides little information about how to use the many search windows and no information about Lucene searches.

 The challenge …  dive for just the pearls of wisdom rather than drown the in the ocean of big data.

Enabled Search Features

Here are some search expressions that the FOCT’s search windows support.

Complex Search Examples

The following searches use various combinations of two words (icing and fuel) to show the options and their corresponding search results.

Keep Calm and Aviate!
(Painting by Coplu Coplu.com)

Note:  These search results were compiled in 2010 using the FOCT at that time.  Your search results may vary.

Flaring Iraqi gas fields (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Notes:

1. All searches are case insensitive
2. The search operation only searches for valid search words (not including Stop Words)
3. You cannot search for a combined phrase with a trailing wildcard such as “t?re”?
4. FOCT boolean (AND OR NOT) queries do not obey a strict boolean logic. “A AND B” or “A AND NOT B” will work as expected, but “A AND B OR C” will give unexpected results. It’s best when thinking of the logic to think in terms of the logic simply being applied one step at a time from the left to the right. It’s also easiest to think in terms of MUST and MUST_NOT (“+”, “-” ) instead of in terms of AND, OR, and NOT.
5. Caution. When using a + prefix, every word must have a prefix, otherwise unexpected results are returned.
6.  The FOCT also includes other utilities that could provide additional functionality (i.e. ACE viewers).
7.  I am happy to share more deeper technical information about searching the many FOCT indexes if requested.

Suggested FOCT Modifications

“Please help me!” write Emily Redmond

“Dear Richard,

I am currently undertaking my private pilots licence with the intentions of hopefully becoming an airline pilot in future.  I am just wondering if you could possibly take a short amount of time to give me some tips with regards to flying and the best approach for me.

I have read you book “QF32“.  It  has inspired me even more to continue with a career in something I am so passionate about.”

Richard Responds

Thanks for your question Emily.   I don’t have sufficient time to respond personally to the hundreds of people who ask me similar questions.  So I have amassed all of my answers into this blog that I will update regularly.  Please:

• post any unanswered questions at the end of this blog,
• revisit this page occasionally to find new and updated information, and
• select “FOLLOW THIS BLOG” at the top right of this page to receive updates

Aviation Pathways for Aspiring Pilots

“Thanks Rich” said John Barkas. “It was awesome to be invited to the flight deck yesterday morning after our chat on flight QF10 from Dubai”   (John had occupied seat 5K on QF32 on 4 Nov 2010.)

1. Aviation Pathways
2. Constraints
3. Training Options
4. Employment Options
5. Employment Tests & Interviews
6. Career Development
7. Alternate Career
8. Aviation Industry
9. Aircraft
10. Life Plan
11. Money
12. Where From Here?
13. Summary
14. For more Information
15. Answers to Questions
16. Ask a Question,

I urge not just aspiring pilots, but all people working towards a dream to read this article (Brandon Bullhorn)

The Lancet

“Science, Freedom, Beauty, Adventure… aviation offers it all!”  (Charles A. Lindberg).

I include (for fun) italicised quotes from “THE LANCET” dated the 28 September 1918.  

The report is headed “The Essential Characteristics of Successful and Unsuccessful Aviators” by T. S. RIPPON (Captain RAMC, attached RAF) and E. G. MANUEL (Lieutenant RAF)  (Thanks to Robert Wilson, Editor Flight Safety Australia, CASA for the research)

Disclaimer

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Aviation is more than just a difficult career, it’s a difficult life as well.   (I am writing this paragraph on a Sunday morning sitting in a hotel in Dubai 7,000 miles away from my loving family)

Nothing in life comes easy.   Aviation is a hard and time consuming journey and not one for the distracted or impatient.  You will have to work hard if you want a successful career in aviation.  The effort needed to learning to fly is less than 1 percent of the effort needed to gain the knowledge, training and experience to become a safe and efficient jet pilot.  The challenge is to improve your skills commensurate with increasing responsibility as you methodically work your way towards the jet’s left hand seat.

Your aviation life will have highs and lows.

The highs are real and measurable.   Your feelings and emotions of  love, thrill and excitement of flying result from surges of the human body’s natural (and sometimes addictive) hormones.

 You will remember the natural “highs” that we feel after the pleasure of:

• passing your Wing’s Parade, Conversion courses and licence tests (dopamine);
• fly the fastest most powerful and complex aircraft in difficult circumstances (dopamine);
• commanding an expert crew of pilots and cabin crew (serotonin);
• being a leader who creates a safe, supporting and productive environment  (serotonin);
• bonding with the crew and passengers (the parents and grand parents, nervous fliers and excited children)  (oxytocin)
• being respected and thanked by passengers who tell you as they leave the aircraft that your flight was “the best that I have ever had”  (serotonin)

The unfortunate (though case-hardened) pilots will never forget their negative feelings of panic, fatigue and fear that might have accompanied:

• surviving emergencies (adrenaline); and
• flying to a safe landing in adverse (fog, ice,  turbulent, windy) weather (cortisol).

Rewards in your life lie beyond your comfort zone

The cost of entry to the cockpit is high; physically, emotionally and financially.   You need to be determined, confident and courageous because there is no easy path to flight, and rewards lie beyond your comfort zone.  Don’t plan nor expect to be helped through these stressful phases as they are ultimately your own personal challenges.  If you don’t have the money to learn to fly then it’s your responsibility (not others) to research the alternative paths.

If you are older than 15 then you probably have less than twenty five thousand days remaining to live.   For anyone working towards achieving a dream; make the most of these days, live and enjoy every one of these days, love these days.

Hopefully the information below will help you kick-start your career.

1. Aviation Pathways

Back to: Aviation Pathways

There are many pathways to taking up a career in Aviation.      Careers exist for pilots, engineers, technicians, air traffic controllers researchers and journalists.

Chasing the sunnset (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

The best pathway for any person is one that suits the applicants interests, passions, skills,  physical fitness, and financial capability.

Aspiring Aviators need the same  Situation Awareness to plan their careers that professional pilots use when flying.

My definition of Situation Awareness is knowing:

• Where you were
• Where you are, and
• Where you will be

Review these aspects of your life at least ever year to ensure that your career plan is  achievable and on track.

2. Constraints

Back to: Aviation Pathways

2.1  Mental Constraints

“there are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots” (E. Hamilton Lee)

You must remain in perfect mental health to be an effective pilot.    This leading edge industry is flooded with threats, where the survivors live by Neil Armstong’s mantra:

“Expect the Unexpected”

Pilots are the most expert managers of risk.    Pilots identify, classify and negotiate risk as part of their daily functions.   The best pilots (risk managers) are those who possess the mental aptitude to appreciate threats, then develop skills and discipline to manage the risks.

Do not panic if you lack these skills.  Most of us start without these skills but fortunately they will develop along with your maturity over time.  Learn by talking to the older and wiser aviators who by definition have the “right stuff” to survive.   You will be surprised how happy the experienced pilots will be to help point you in the right directions, to “give back” and to mentor.

You are expected to possess the following personal traits when beginning a career in aviation:

• Passion (the Why)   (Why I want to be a pilot)
• Core ethics (values and beliefs)
• Determination, drive, aspiration
• Independence of thought
• Thirst for unlimited knowledge
• Pride, dignity, respect & empathy for others

THE LANCET – 1918:  …..[the successful pilot] possesses resolution, initiative, presence of mind, sense of humour, judgment; is alert, cheerful, optimistic, happy-go-lucky, generally a good fellow, and frequently lacking in imagination. ..

THE LANCET – 1918:  …. [He]  possess in a very high degree a fund of animal spirits and excessive vitality.

Personal traits you will be expected to acquire throughout your career include:

• Maturity
• Confidence, courage and persistence tempered by modesty and even vulnerability
• Decision analysis
• Teamwork, communication and leadership

 “the minute pilots think that they know everything is the second before they do something really stupid”

•  Successful aviators are confident but never overconfident.   I am reminded of this every three months when I revisit the simulator!

Personal skills you will be expected to acquire throughout your career include:

• Computer literacy.  The ability to use computerised systems.   The knowledge to understand and recognise when automated systems fail and the ability to take manual control to ensure safe flight.

2.1.1  Passion

Passion is an emotional turbocharger that resides deep in your fast and instinctive mind.   Passion empowers your values and beliefs.   Not everyone has a passion, but you  can observe it in others and you know when you find it.  You can feel your own passion, yet cannot describe it in words.  Passion inhibits the negative and inhibitory processes that dominate processes in our mind.   Passion engenders a focus and offers unlimited energy to pursue thoughts or actions.    Passionate people wake up with the energy and inclination to devote almost unlimited effort to achieve results.

2.1.2  Maturity

consider completing your academic training before commencing flying training if you are immature for your age.

Maturity provides the ability to control our thoughts, impulses and emotions.   The mature mind harnesses three brain centres:

• Emotions and fear (flight and fight circuitry in the limbic system)
• Thoughts, impulses, motivations,  sociability (grey matter,  that peaks at puberty)
• Wisdom (white matter connections, that peaks at about 25 years of age)

The brain does not mature by getting larger.  The brain matures when the “hyperlinks” in our white matter, correlates the “knowledge” in our grey matter to become more interconnected, and specialised to respond to the environment.

Teenagers take on risky and emotively behaviours because these three brain functions peak at different ages.   The feisty limbic system develops in the first years, the grey matter tops out at puberty, and wisdom doesn’t peak until our mid 20s.  These development mismatches explain the teens’ propensity for risky and reckless behaviour, free thinking, experimentation and socialisation.

The timing in my graphs for Thoughts, Wisdom and Recklessness vary for every person:

• Wisdom (the green line) first peaks at about 25 years of age, and slowly increases afterwards.
• We are reckless (the amber line) and more inclined to do irresponsible acts from the age of puberty until about 25 years of age.

Interestingly, a graph of “aviation accident rates versus age” follows this graph of recklessness up until 65 years of age.

The mismatch is greatest in our formative years from ages 13 to 25.   Tennagers’ brains have insufficient wisdom to resolve their abundant knowledge.  Their minds are like “cities” of knowledge being flooded by tsunamis of challenges, but without the wisdom to select the best defences.

We act recklessly when we have insufficient wisdom to control our thoughts and emotions.   In these cases we have trouble controlling impulses or managing risk.  We act irrationally, make wrong decisions and take unwise risks, often to our detriment.

The mismatch in the brain’s development is well suited for expansion and evolution of the species, however it is not well suited to disciplined, conservative procedural pursuits.  This timing mismatch explains why our young teenagers’ appetite for socialising and risk taking, peaks just after puberty.  Perhaps it explains why some teenagers opt out of reading and relaxation for the higher risks associated with:

• social media,
• violent computer games,
• shoplifting, reckless car driving (car accidents account for 50% of teen deaths),
• homicide, suicide (second and third cause of teen deaths), and
• drugs, firearms, street gangs and terrorist activities.

To make matters worse, puberty is now starting earlier, boosting hormone responses when the mind is even less mature.

Understanding that maturity grows as recklessness falls in the late teens and early twenties is information we need when planning our careers.  Where does your personality appear on the reckless-maturity graph, and why does it matter for your aviation career?

A mature mind is more capable to identify, rate and work with risk and thus maximise survival.  So consider completing your academic training before commencing flying training if you are immature for your age.   For example, you have only one opportunity to complete your flying training in the air force, so don’t fail because of immaturity.  This was my strategy.

I was probably too immature at 17 years of age to attempt and pass the Air Force Direct Entry pilot course.  I started my four years of RAAF Academy academic training when I left school at 17 years of age.  My full time RAAF flying training commenced when I was a more mature 21 year old.

2.2 Pilot Licences

Photo: Byron Van Gisborne

The world’s aviation authorities are currently harmonising with ICAO’s range of Pilot Licences.

For example, the new Australian licences include:

• Recreational Pilot Licence (RPL):   >= 16 years old, > 25 hrs (20 dual, 5 solo),  Fly within <= 25nm from aerodrome
• Private Pilot Licence (PPL):  >= 17 years old. 35 hrs experience
• Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL):   >= 18 years old
• Multicrew Pilots Licence (MPL)
• Airline Transport Pilot Licence (ATPL) >= 21 years old, 1500 hrs (for fixed wing).  Must undertake Multicrew Co-operation course, and flight test.

EASA licences pic.twitter.com/A3fXccRb4E

The airlines will most likely require a CPL as a pre-requisite for employment

2.3 Financial Constraints

Dad’s Turbo Piper Arrow (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Another Dad in Paradise (Photo Richard de Crepsigny)

You will need about USD$150,000 to pay for flying training and flying hours to obtain a Commercial Pilot’s licence.   If you cannot finance this training then you must search for less costly entry options via:

• Airline Cadet Courses (if available)
• Military

2.4  Education Constraints

2.4.1 Research

Recruit pilots must attain the employers’ required skill levels.  These requirements are  realistic.  They based upon the skills that you need to become a pilot then have spare mental space and capacity to develop into captains, managers and leaders.

It is your responsibility to find out airlines’ requirements for employment as a pilot.   Don’t ask your parents or friends to research this for you.  It’s not their job.   It’s your job to do the research for your career.

The best airlines and defence forces generally require the highest levels of practical skills.   These requirements are the first filters that separate those who have the highest motivations and potential to become a pilot from those that don’t.

(Photo RDC)

2.4.2 School

You must acquire some basic skills at school if your want a career in aviation.

Take charge of your time at school.  Don’t waste your school years.  You are responsible for your learning.  You are responsible for your ignorance.   I list a few essential education criteria below.

2.4.2.1  Maths and Physics (essential)

Plan to graduate school with Mathematics and Physics subjects.   Chemistry would also be an asset for an aviation career, but is certainly not a requirement.

It’s not hopeless if your academic skills initially fail to meet the grade.  In this case however it’s now up to you now more than ever before to alter your values, beliefs and motivations.  You will have to work harder to pass the subject or consider repeating school until your marks improve.

Gaining mathematical skills is one of your most important steps to ensuring a successful and secure career.   Surveys show that people with superior maths skills are creative and become effective contributors and leaders in critical roles.  25%-40% of people with maths skills earned doctorate degrees, compared with just 2% of the entire USA population.

Focus on maths if your maths skills are lacking.   Be seduced by the beauty of maths.   Read and re-read the maths books.    Dream the maths.  Find the beauty in maths. Repeat the maths exercises until you reach perfection.  Enjoy the addictive dopamine high that you feel when you solve a problem.   When you make this commitment, you’ll gain a sense of understanding, purpose and meaningfulness for maths, experiencing the joy  of using the equations and processes as tools to solve problems,  just like the screwdrivers and hammers in your toolbox.

Your joy for maths can be as emotionally strong and addictive as your passion the that you feel for music, art and poetry – you just have to commit yourself to study it.  You just have to try.

No-one can help you with this.  It’s up to you.   You can do it!   Prove to everyone else that you can do it!

2.4.2.2    Computer Coding (desireable)

Everyone who works with mechatronic  (engineering, computers & electronics) technologies should have computer coding skills. Coding skills include the fundamentals of computer communications, algorithms, logic and code.   These are the blood vessels, brains and universal languages through which  computers monitor, process and respond to the environment.

Coding skills help us to survive our future in a digital world increasingly dominated by algorithms.   Coding builds critical thinking skills and an appreciation for why technological is designed, how to use it effectively and what to do when the technology fails.

Here are a few of the many ways that you can develop and maintain your coding skills.  :

• Complete a computer course at school
• Join a STEM club at school or local community (or create one if it does not exist).   The Code Cadets at Canberra Grammar is a great example of how a few students can help each other to achieve great results.
• Write “Hello World!” on your iPhone or iPad using Apple’s Swift  program.
• Build exciting computer controlled sensing and interactive controlled machines in minutes with remarkable Arduino kits.
• Learn Java, Visual Basic or  Delphi if you are just interested in software languages.

2.4.2.3   Stress of Study and School

It is normal to be  stressed by the activities of study and school.  The art of learning is a personal journey and starts only when we become aroused.   Stress is a personal state and some scenarios that stress one person will not stress another.

Canberra Grammar Code Cadets (www.codecadets.com)

I am a pilot not a psychologist.  However  my small understanding of  how the brain is designed, its functional makeup and its limitations has helped me to study more efficiently and effectively.  Here are some of my thoughts to improve your study techniques and to reduce stress. These methods worked for me – I hope they help you.

Please consult your teachers or perhaps psychologists if  you are unable to manage your stress levels.

2.4.2.4  Focus

It’s natural to be distracted whilst studying.  However distractions destroy focus and thus the quality of study.  So how can you minimise distractions?

Learn to love the term “study”.  Planned, focussed and prioritised study is the path to your success!  Study processes and assimilates knowledge into your mind.  Knowledge is power.  Power is is success in this competitive world.  Power comes through focussed study, deliberate practice.   The major skill that separates us into our separate track, careers and outcomes is NOT intelligence, it is our study, our deliberate practice.  Mozart, the Beatles, Tiger Woods, Federer, Neil Armstrong are the best examples of experts who have excelled through deliberate practice.  This is your method if you wish to join their ranks.

Focus deeply until the topics that you are studying consume your mind.   Don’t just give the thought a fleeting interest, focus deeper, going into the detail then deeper again.  Get inside the thought.  What if….   Extend yourself…   Immerse yourself…  Drown in the thoughts.

Vestibular System (Photo R de Crespigny)

When we focus on a thought or sense, the brain’s inhibitory neurons block extraneous senses and thus enable us to narrow our focus even more.   We become “tunnel visioned” when we focus on a thought or sense to the detriment of others.  Feelings, noise and distractions vanish.  Attention is maximised.  Time flies.   (Click here to read more about the neuroscience of inhibitions)

It’s easy to experience how we can tunnel our senses and avoid distractions.   Work through a Sudoku puzzle the next time you run on an exercise machine. You’ll find that focussing on the puzzle has the effect of the suppressing the pain and awareness of running.  The discomfort and fatigue vanish, time quickly passes and you will reach your exercise goal with less mental effort.

2.4.2.5  Study Breaks

Plan your study time to include breaks.  Frequent breaks improves focus and mental agility.  The Pomodoro Study Technique  is one example of how to plan breaks into study time:

• Decide on the task
• Set a “pomodoro” (iPhone/kitchen) timer to n minutes (default 25 mins)
• Begin working on the task
• Take short (3-5 mins break) after every “pomodori” time interval
• Take a long (15-30 min break after every 4 “pomodori” time intervals

2.4.2.6  Social Media

Social media is  distracting,  addictive and counter productive to study

Avoid the distractions of social media during study time.

Social media is distracting, addictive and counter productive to study.  Social media hooks us with hits of the dopamine hormone that is released every time we accept a new friend-connection.   We get a hit even if we don’t know and will never meet the other person.

Social media absorbs time for no work benefit.   We are now spending more time alone on social media that at any other time in history.  Time spent on social media is time lost to listen to our peers, learn, develop our skills and to advance our careers.

• Allocate the first hours in your day (or after exercise) to study when your mind is fresh and primed with new neurons for learning.
• Spend free time to socialise and network with real peers and friends.
• If you must use social media, then spare time for this only during the last hours of the day when your mind is effectively worn out.

2.4.2.7  Confidence

The key to remaining in control is to keep confident physiologically, mentally and emotionally:

• Physiologically – via exercise! It clears the mind, helps simplify thoughts and keeps your body agile.
• Mentally – make a plan for your studies and keep to it. Socialise, but leave the wild parties until next year!
• Emotionally – keep some time to yourself to relax and doing what YOU want to do (electronics, motorbikes, bicycle….)

2.4.2.8.1  Memory

(Painting Jaak de Koninck http://www.jaakdekoninck.be)

Whilst pilots are very “left brain” factual types, the brain appears to be more suited to remembering artistic and visual patterns that are handled in the “right brain”. This means that it is important to give a visual or image context to any data, formulae or facts that you are trying to remember.

The “left brain” processes characters, words and expressions, the “right brain” receives sensor data (images, sounds, taste, smell, touch).   So for example describing an image tends to moves the memory from the right brain to the left brain where the image is more easily “lost”. This “Verbal Overshadowing” means that describing an image often has the effect of impairing your otherwise effortless ability to subsequently recognise that object!

Memories are reinforced when accessed by many sources (cross-linking). This means that you ideally want to create notes that link and cross-link/hyperlink to all your other data. Only a few PC programs do this properly, but mind maps can achieve the same though they reside in your right brain and cannot be stored efficiently in PCs.

2.4.2.8.2 Memory – Practice

Oliver Klaas (3 yrs old) (Photo Jason Klaas)

Memories are also reinforced through repetition.

Sleep!   The sleep processes selectively weaken short term memories and as a result restores plasticity in the mind.   The consequences of this behaviour include:

• The best time to study is during the first few hours after waking
• Memories are best retained if laid down during multiple sessions, each after a period of sleep
• If you do play computer games, then play them at the end of the brain’s day when you have the least capability for form new memories.

The extreme form of practice is called “Deliberate Practice” – practicing the things that challenge us repetitively over periods of years and over 10,000 hours. Mozart, Tiger Woods and Michael Federer are proof that Deliberate Practice works. Whilst you won’t have time to fit in 10,000 hours, any repetition helps!

Celebrate success.   The dopamine hormone hit we get when we achieving goals rewards the work mentality in our mind.   Success sponsors changes to improve happiness, confidence, courage and thus our future successes.

Make a “To Do” list.  The first item must be “Make my bed“.   You will get a dopamine “high” with a sense of pride that you have accomplished the first task of the day.   It reinforces the belief that the little things do matter.   Even if you subsequently have a bad day, you’ll have the pleasure of coming home to a comfortable bed!

2.4.2.8.3 Memory –  Exercise

Exercise improves memory and reduces stress.   Exercise increases the rate that brain neurons are created in the Dentate Gyrus.   These new neurons increases the brain’s plasticity which aids learning and the rationalising of previous previous experiences-stresses.

2.4.2.8.4 Memory –  Summary

• Feed your mind.   Study.   Take every opportunity to gain experience in all aspects of your field.
• Facts are easier to remember when they are associated with images, photos or patterns with other facts
• Build mind maps to replicate and associate and cross-link facts residing in the “left brain” with images in the “right brain” – indeed in this case the two sides of your brain now reinforce each other
• Reinforce memory by either associating it with great stress (this is risky!) or by revisiting the memory many times. Lay the memory then strengthen the bond by revising (studying) many times at regular and increasing intervals.

2.4.3 Personal Traits

Employers require more from job applicants than just academic results.

Once you have jumped over the academic barriers (raw IQ and education scores), employers then divert more attention to your personal health.  Personal health is a study of your attitudes, beliefs and behaviours.   You will be assessed in the areas of conscientiousness, extraversion, openness and agreeableness and neuroticism.   You will also be assessed about your behaviours such as exercise, drinking and smoking.

Take part in active sports.  Sport improves your brain’s motor skills, social skills and confidence.

I recommend school military cadet programmes.    The military drills, courses and camps foster and develop skills in discipline, teamwork and leadership – attributes that every professional pilot must possess.

Beware – a pilot’s life is one of continual study, learning and development.  Technology is always changing and improving, so you will have to study for your entire life if you choose to fly professionally.

RIP the World’s best aviator – Neil Armstrong who said “expect the unexpected” (RDC)

Pilots undertake training courses and frequent check flights.  My employer requires that I be re-certified to operate seven times every year:

• 4 x simulator check flights (4 hours each)
• 1 x day of emergency procedures training
• 1 x Route Check (QF32 was my 2010 route check)
• Aviation Medical Certificate

2.4.4 Age

Do not despair if you are an older university graduate or if you have extensive industry experience and now wish to become a pilot .  Your study and efforts have not been in vain, but be patient.

Airlines first employ you to fill the role of a pilot, however your university degree and experience gives you additional skills that will potentially differentiate you from the younger inexperienced pilot recruits.

Airlines require pilots in senior technical and management positions to have additional skills, so should be keen to employ graduates from Business, Engineering and Test Pilot schools.

2.5  Physical Constraints

All pilots must possess a current medical certificate to be able to fly.

2013 IPC World Cup Thredbo (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

The medical requirements vary with the pilot’s age and type of licence. You will need very good hearing, correctable eyesight and above average spatial and hand-eye coordination.

If in doubt, visit an aviation certified medical examiner before you commit to any training to determine your medical ability to fly.

You must know the many personal, physical and educational requirements to join the military if this is your preferred pathway.  The military recruit relatively  few pilots so it is not surprising that they employ only the most healthy and physically capable candidates.

THE LANCET – 1918:  The successful aviator has always the attributes of a sportsman. As a schoolboy he takes part in all forms of athletics and usually played for the school in one game at least. After leaving school he still keeps it up, and probably goes in for other kinds of sport-hunting, shooting, fishing, rowing, golfing, motoring etc. 

You must remain physically fit for your entire career.   If you partake in risky activities such as road cycling, rock climbing or toboggan racing then ensure that you have a backup career available in the event that you become injured and unable to retain a medical aviation certificate.

THE LANCET – 1918:  We found that the best type of pilot was seldom drawn from a sedentary occupation, that those who had lived a sheltered life were not so good as those who had roughed it. …. 

2.6  Gender (Sex)

There are no constraints separating men from women to take up an aviation career and there is no discrimination against female aviators in progressive countries and companies.

Globally only about 3% of pilots are women – that’s about 4,000 out of 130,000 pilots worldwide:

• British Airways employs 3,500 pilots, but only 200 are female
• Less than 100 of the 2,500 Qantas pilots are female

Less women than men apply for careers in aviation, perhaps because:

• 85% of applicants had dreamed of being a pilot since their earliest childhood years.  Perhaps less women than men commit to flying in these early and formative years whilst at home and school,
• The lack of female role models in aviation,
• The aviation industry’s lack of support for women who plan to raise children,
• Gender bias that preferences male pilots.

Regardless of gender, all applicants must possess a passion for aviation, an aptitude for flight and the dedication to commit to a life of learning and development.

3.  Training Options

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Your decision of how to train to fly will be influenced by the status of the industry, the jobs available and your resources to learn to fly.

You will need an Airline Transport Pilot Licence (ATPL) to captain a commercial airliner.  You will need to pass about 14 exams and acquire 1,500 hours flying experience.   Here are some of the many pathways that you can take to achieve these goals.

 3.1  Initial Career Assessment

I recommend a few hours of flying instruction or private flying (with a friend) as part of your initial research before you commit to a career in aviation. The theory of maths, science, Bernoulli’s theorem, and the fun and thrills of  of high speed flight are different to the physical realities of oil soaked engines, pre-flighting engines on cold winter mornings, and the first time when all senses overload during practice emergencies.

3.2  Private Flying

(Coutesy Santiago de Larminat)

Private flying lessons give you the flexibility to select  the types of skills that you need for your desired career.

Private flying is an excellent method to gain broad skills in diverse areas though often these operations are conducted with unknown  governance, culture, training and standards.

If learning to fly privately, then you should get a twin engine endorsement as soon as possible during your training. Your navigation exercises can then be flown in twin instead of single engine aircraft.  You will therefore acquire multiple engine experience as quickly as possible.  This plan saves money for your overall training and increases your chances of employment.

If you wish to join the military, then limit the amount of private flying first, as the military generally want to take you before you have acquired “other” skills.

3.3  Cadet Program

Cadet Programs are an excellent way to learn to fly for minimal costs, though you might have to repay training costs if you leave before a bonding period expires.

Cadet Programs may have a pre-requisite of  no flying experience, or up to 240 hours (Multi-crew Pilot Licence) or 1,500 hours (FAA)  flying hours experience.

Cadet Programs offer advantages for pilots who are looking for a life and career  in the airlines.   The airlines provide the structured working environments, atmosphere and culture where the pilots learn from osmosis the principles of human factors, responsibility, leadership, safety, teamwork and personal development.  However airline cadets often miss out on flying in diverse environments and experiencing the “challenging events” that give confidence, case harden the skills and bullet proofs the character.

To view these thoughts from another perspective, Friedrich Nietzsche‘s famous quotation:

“That which does not kill us makes us stronger”

infers that pilots who develop their skills from diverse and challenging flying backgrounds will probably become more resilient than those who experience a stress-free and risk free passage.    (Malcolm Gladwell’s book “David and Goliath” extends these thoughts.)

Cadet programs can  very expensive.  Lufthansa for example trains its pilot cadets over a period of 29 to 33 months at its Airline Training Centre in Phoenix, Arizona.  The course costs 70,000 Euros US$ 140,000) that is paid back in installments after commencing employment.

Click here to see a list of Pilot Cadet Programs

Cadet programs offer no resilience for your careers in case you become unfit to fly.   Your training program is only focussed towards flying and your pilot’s licence will be of no help later if you lose the ability to fly due to physical or mental problems.

3.4  Technical College Diploma

Technical colleges provide short regimented aviation courses.  Students graduate with a “Diploma in Aviation” and the basic Commercial Pilot’s Licence (CPL).  If you want to be a professional pilot, then expect to outlay additional costs after this course to get twin engine and other experience.

3.5 University Degree

Edward Leung after Hong Kong – Sydney flight Feb 2014. Edward has moved to Australia to complete the Aviation course at The University of New South Wales (photo Edward Leung)

I recommend that pilots gain tertiary skills.  You will have the most resilient career if you combine your flying with a university course in another field.

Acquiring knowledge will help you get a job.  Universities impart knowledge. Knowledge begets confidence.  Knowledge is power.   Knowledge will help you adapt.  Knowledge will help you survive.  Ideally your university course will complement flying.

Universities teach students how to think effectively and be better leaders.  Clear thinkers make better decisions.  Making better decisions builds self-confidence.  Self confidence helps us to make the tough and courageous decisions.

University courses in Science, Aerospace and Engineering provide the most skills to bracket any aviation career.    Many of my pilot friends have degrees in law, psychology, engineering, computing and science.  These courses also bullet-proof your options in case you wish to pursue careers in other industries.

“Aviation Studies” courses normally include physical flying lessons.   These course also include a broad range of aviation subjects (safety, leadership, law,  crew resource management, performance, aerodynamics …. ) that cover the breadth of knowledge that is needed to gain entry to any airline sector.

You will probably graduate from these Aviation Studies courses with a Bachelor’s degree and the subjects completed for an ATPL pilot’s licence.   These qualifications are ideal if you want to join an airline.   These narrower and focussed qualifications have less application though in other industries.

Although the order in which you train is not important, I think that it’s best to undertake university and college courses;

• straight after school (it’s easier to study when young and used to studying than to study when you are older and have not studied for many years),
• during a downturn in the industry (when there is less employment), and
• when working regular flying rosters (studying in your hotel room!)

THE LANCET – 1918:  The [successful] fighting scout is usually the enthusiastic youngster, keen on flying, full of what one might call the “joy of life,” possessing an average intelligence, but knowing little or nothing of the details of his machine or engine; he has little or no imagination, no sense of responsibility, keen sense of humour, able to think and act quickly, and endowed to a high degree with the aforementioned quality, “hands.” He very seldom takes his work seriously, but looks upon “strafing the lines” as a great game.

THE LANCET – 1918:  ….  The authors, however, desire to express their definite conviction that the less the fighting scout pilot knows about his machine from a mechanical point of view the better.

 3.6  Life After Training

Life is not fair.  You will fail often, especially when faced with Donald Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” and Neil Armstrong’s “unexpected events”.

You must plan to be resilient if you become unable to fly.

Always plan to augment your skill sets after joining an airline.

Give yourself the skills to continue in another profession.  You will be “bullet proof and not gun shy” only when you develop your confidence to face the vicissitudes of life and to continue when the unthinkable happens:

• never give up,
• face down your fears,
• step up when the times are toughest,
• do the hard things and
• be all that you can be.
• It’s at this point that you will have the confidence to take more risks and to advance your career:

4.  Employment Options

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Your focus after gaining your initial licences is to improve your employment prospects.   Use your time constructively:

• Improve your knowledge.
• Grab every opportunity to fly.
• Use spare time to study and gain more advanced licences.
• I suggest that it is not in your best interests to spend time in other aviation trades  (cabin attendant, ground ops or customer service) at the expense of gaining flying experience.

4.1  Military

“Uncle Sam will pay to teach you, if you’re willing to bleed a little!”

My son Alexander after a flight to heaven and back in an F-18 fighter.

Do NOT join the Military (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) to learn to fly for no charge, for this most remarkable flying comes at a great lifestyle cost.

4.1.1  The Military is a lifestyle

The military job is a way of life:  discipline, military history, physical and mental stress, constant study, constant development then deployments when and to where the military decides.   You will be a military officer first, and a pilot second.

You must be confident to undertake a military flying career

4.1.2  Personal Qualities in the Military

You must exhibit (or have the potential to develop) the following personal skills to undertake a career as an officer pilot in the military:

• Physical fitness.   Flying fighters requires peak physical fitness.  You will sweat, puff, pant, strain your neck and be fatigued at the end of a 30 minute combat manoeuvres flight.
• Confidence and the ability to handle failure.  You cannot expects others to have confidence in you if you do not believe in yourself.
• Initiative
• Leadership.   You will be asked to give examples where you exhibited leadership in challenging situations.   You will be tested for Leadership, situation awareness and problem solving skills.
• Teamwork

Military life is hard!    Be prepared to change your thinking, expectations and actions to suit the military doctrine.  These values and beliefs were best described by Admiral William H. McRaven:

• Start every day with a task completed (even if it is just making your bed!)
• Find a mentor to help you through life
• Respect everyone
• Understand and take risks
• Step up when others falter
• Face down aggression and bullies
• Support others
• Know that life is not fair and that you will fail often, so
• Never, Ever give up

Commander Jim Lovell (ex US Navy) (Photo: Michael Watson)

Chuck Yeager on Twitter:   (Chuck was the first pilot to exceed the speed of sound (Mach 1))

Reader asks Chuck:   “Isn’t flying expensive to learn for a profession?”

Chuck Yeager answers:   “Uncle Sam will pay to teach you, if you’re willing to bleed a little!”

4.1.3  Academic Skills and the Military

Your military flying training only starts when you acquire the foundation skills.

You must have skills in  the Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects to be eligible for a career as a military pilot.   The military uses only the most advanced and leading edge technologies.  So you must understand how high technology is designed and constructed so that you can operate it to its full potential.   Arts skills are valued lower than STEM skills.

If your STEM skills are lacking, then act to improve them.   Read and practice maths and physics. When you apply sufficient effort, your skills will improve and you will start to enjoy these subjects as a result.

4.1.4  Military Return of Service

A military career is a long career.

The RAAF invested about 1.5 million dollars in the 1970s for my RAAF Academy and pilot training courses, so I had to spend at least eleven years in the force.

Today the costs exceed five million dollars and the bonding period has increased to about 14 years!

THE LANCET – 1918:  ….  Flying Overseas:  There is certainly a cumulative strain on the pilot, greater than any other form of aviation. Duties overseas consist of: (1) artillery observation; (2) offensive and defensive patrols; (3) trench strafing; (4) night bombing; (5) day bombing ; (6) long reconnaissance and photography.  

THE LANCET – 1918:  ….  One of the greatest strains on the pilot’s nerves is when he sees one of his friends go down in flames, or, after arriving at the mess, he learns that so-and-so is missing. When this occurs with monotonous regularity it is very hard for the pilot to maintain his mental equilibrium. There is no branch of the service where losses are more keenly felt.

4.1.5  Civil aviation for ex military aviators

Military pilots make excellent commercial aviation pilots:

• The remarkable Sully Sullenberger (ex USAF)

  The flying skills and experience attained in the armed forces exceed the minimum standards of commercial airlines.  When recruiting new pilots, airlines usually double the hours of military flying experience when equating them to civil pilot flying experience.  The military pilot’s deep knowledge about the theory of flight, airframes, aerodynamics, performance and propulsion form an excellent foundation for any civil aviation career.  You should have sufficient experience for employment in any commercial airline if you leave after completing your “return years of service” (to repay the military for their costs to train you).

• Wing Commander Andy Green (RAF) and his Bloodhound Super Sonic Car

  Military pilots aspire to perfection knowing that it is an illusion and that they will never achieve it.  The airspeeds, altitudes and approaches that they fly might be close to the target, but close is never good enough and they know that they must always improve their skills and expand their limits.

• Military pilots understand leadership, teamwork, comradeship and trust.  Military courses are designed for teams, not individuals.  Obstacle courses are designed to defeat individuals – you will only survive if you help others and in turn others help you.   The best military leaders exhibit the highest standards in these areas, replacing attitudes of narcissism and conceit with humility and vulnerability.
• Failure is never an option for the best military aviators.     This attitude is exemplified by navy pilots who must return from a mission with little fuel and perhaps a damaged aircraft to land on a dark very short and unlit deck on an aircraft carrier  that is pitching on rough seas in stormy weather.    These skills do not go unnoticed.  Jim Hansen recounts that six of the seven Apollo commanders that landed on the moon were former navy aviators.

4.1.6  Military bonds are forever

John Bartels (Now: Captain A380.  Ex: Royal Australian Navy)

You don’t cross a finish line alone in the military,  you always cross it with someone else

The bonds that you make with your course colleagues will never be broken. You will never forget your shared experiences.

Your colleagues become your extended family.  You remember their families, their girlfriends, their strengths, their weaknesses, how you helped them and how they assisted you in return.

You don’t cross a finish line alone in the military,  you always cross it with someone else.  You train together, you survive together.   I remember the weekly physical test at the RAAF Academy.  We failed the test if we were unable to run a few kilometers within a specific time.   I was a good long distance runner.  My friend Gerry Carter was a great short distance runner.  So Gerry and I used to pair up and run the test together, he pulling me along through the middle sections and I spurring him on to the end.  The instructors saw our alliance and feigned not liking it.  Standing at the finish line they yelled out, “faster de Crespigny!  Don’t slow for Carter“;  but I never did speed up.  Gerry and I raced as a team, we finished as a team.

Friendships and respect forged in the military last forever.  For example, today I met Professor Joe Lynch during my flight from Dubai to London (19th April 2015) .  Joe was one of the 44 other cadets that joined the RAAF Academy with me in 1975.   I went my way after graduation and Joe went his way to fly Chinook helicopters.   I had only seen Joe a handful of times since we graduated pilots’ course in 1979, but it didn’t matter.  It was as though I had seen Joe just yesterday.   The memories and emotions came back when  I hugged Joe.   Nothing else needed to be said.

4.2  International Airlines

(Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

QF1, Sydney Dubai, October 2013. (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

The best international airlines only recruit well trained and experienced pilots.

The airlines do not teach you to fly, they simply show you their standard operating procedures and convert you to their aircraft.

The aircraft, pay and conditions are superior, but you will be employed to ultimately be a captain and the highest flying and leadership standards are expected. You will need about 1,500 / 3,000  military/civil hours respectively.

The international airlines generally employ pilots with jet experience from the military, turboprop and jet airlines.

Flaring from 40,000 feet overhead the Iran Oil Fields 2014.

4.3  Regional, Domestic and Low Cost (budget) Airlines

Bombardier Dash 8 at Tamworth Airport (Photo: Richard de Crespigny)

The regional, domestic and low cost (budget) airlines live in the middle of the pilot “food chain”.   These airlines operate with razor thin margins.

The low cost and budget airlines generally operate over short routes of less than three hours to hopefully fly more sectors than the value added airlines.  All costs are trimmed to provide the legal minimum requirements.

The value added domestic airlines face significant competition.  They might fly longer routes than the low cost airlines, but the increased choices of airlines and the competition puts an upper cap on air fares.

Domestic airlines are very different to long haul international airlines.  The average sector length of the short haul airlines is between 2.5 to 3 hours, compared to 7-8 hours for the long haul operators.   You will fly more sectors, have better hands-on flying skill,  return to your home each night and be less affected by jet lag than your long haul brethren.

The low cost airlines generally have only a few aircraft types.   The pay is less, with more limiting career promotions and less exotic international travel than those offered by the long haul airlines.

You might be able to join these airlines with the minimum of 240 flying hours (Multicrew Pilot Licence) or 1,500 hours (FAA).

Be very careful joining an low cost airline with less than 300 hours of flying experience.  Safety is reduced when airlines put inexperienced of under-confident pilots into the First Officer’s seat.  You will be flying with only one other pilot. You must  learn the skills of your trade much faster and with fewer safety nets than apprentice pilots in the international airlines.

Its not just your passengers that are put at risk, it’s your career if the unthinkable happens and your performance is questioned.

Be prepared to pay for your training costs if you leave the low cost airline before your bonding period is repaid.

The need for regional flying is growing.   For the regional airlines in Australia from 1985 – 2008:   (RAAA conference  Sep11)

• The number of regional airports has reduced down from 268 to 138
• The number of airlines has reduced from 53 down to 27
• BUT the number of passengers has increased from 1 million up to 6 million

4.4  Air Freight Companies

The passenger aircraft industry offers a more reliable future for pilots than the air freight industry.

190 specialist air freight companies boomed over the last twenty years at times when jet fuel was cheap and the rapid road and sea freight alternatives were underdeveloped, slow and provided poor customer service.

Times have now changed.  The air freight industry that once boomed is now holding steady or even in a gentle decline whilst the ground freight companies provide cost effective and acceptable competition. Only 0.5% (43m of 8.8b tonnes) of sea and air freight was carried in the air in 2012.    50% of this air freight is carried in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft.   The remaining 50% is carried by 1,645 dedicated air freighters, two thirds of which are converted passenger aircraft.    The belly based cargo market has declined 30% over the past four years due to effective competition from alternative carriers.    (RAeS AeroSpace, Oct 2014 p10)

Looking out twenty years to 2034, the market for air freighter pilots is uncertain, particularly whilst jet fuel prices remain high and surface based competitors become more efficient.  Even the internet delivers many goods electronically that were once packaged and air freighted. Nevertheless aircraft manufacturers remain optimistic and forecast the freight industry will continue to grow at 3.2% per annum. They forecast the number of dedicated freighter aircraft will increase by 2,670 (870 new and 1,800 converted passenger aircraft).    (RAeS AeroSpace, Oct 2014 p10)

I forecast that short range air freight will be managed via:

• increasing excess capacity of cargo holds of passenger aircraft,
• a steady or even declining number of dedicated air freighters, and
• increasing efficient road, rail and sea freight alternatives.

I forecast that long range air freight will be managed via:

•  increasing excess capacity of cargo holds of international passenger aircraft,
• a steady number of dedicated air freighters.   I also forecast that in 30 years we will see autonomous air freighters (with remotely pilot override) that will transit the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and
• increasing efficient sea freight alternatives.

4.5  Tourist Industry / Outback / Crop Dusters

Blue Hawaiian Helicopters tours on the Big Island. Kona (the island’s second airport) and this heliports are deposited on top of and covering many black lava flows. (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

4.5.1 Tourist Industry

I suggest that for other than retired pilots, that the tourist industry be planned as a brief “means to an end” to acquire flying hours on your journey to a jet airline.

Flying in the tourist  industry is one of the best ways to build up your hours prior to joining an airline though the repetitive nature of the flying limits your full potential.  1,000 hours flying the same 1 hour sector produces less learning experiences than 300 flights with random routes and destinations.

4.5.2 Outback Flying

“That which does not kill us makes us stronger”  (Friedrich Nietzsche)

Ryan Bullock asks:  “I currently have an option to fly in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia for a year and also for a cadet-ship with a regional airline.   Which should I pick”.

Ryan, I would accept the offer to fly in the NT then take the cadet-ship with the regional.  The exciting outback experience will provide a great foundation for any commercial airline position.   I also think that early in a pilot’s career, that time is best spent laying a broad range of core skills and experience than to just acquire seniority in an airline.

I recommend all pilots early their career take up opportunities to fly in the sparsely populated areas the world (Australia, Alaska, Canada, New Guinea, South America ….).

Imagine this (brief) sojourn similar to a medical internship – the pay and working conditions might be poor, but you will gain immeasurable experience, confidence and resilience whilst also having fun learning the basic practicalities of flight, navigation and performance, all without the distractions that come with congested skies and over-controlling management.

Outback pilots quickly acquire the maturity and many of the basis hands-on flight skills necessary to start a flying career.   You will gain responsible and be able to  appreciate and manage the diverse threats and stresses such as navigation, weather, cold/hot temperatures, poor aircraft performance, aircraft mechanics, poor airfields and sometimes troublesome passengers.

Many of our most valuable life-lessons are learned from challenging experiences, and those who have seen more will be more armor-plated to anticipate and manage future risks.   You will probably inadvertently scare yourself a few times and learn to appreciate the benefit of not skimping on your fuel orders and weight and balance limitations.

You will also probably come to appreciate the technical complexities and risks of low flying.  More importantly thought, you will start to appreciate your skills and limitations and become aware of when it is prudent to stand with the birds on the ground rather than to launch into the unknown and into potentially dangerous weather conditions.

4.5.3 Crop Dusting

(iStockphoto)

I only recommend Crop Dusting and other low level high performance flying jobs for the case hardened, mature and experienced pilots. Except for military and helicopter flight, it’s almost always safer to he higher than lower in the air.

Crop Dusting pilots work in an almost exclusive environment of severe risks and stresses:  limiting performance, time, dust, visibility, wires, fatigue. Save the Crop Dusting career until you have thousands of hours experience and the maturity to know your aircraft’s and your body’s limitations and the confidence to say “NO, I’m not flying today!”. Your friends and family will thank you for these decisions!

5  Employment Tests & Interviews

Back to: Aviation Pathways

The interview is not about you,  what you know or your qualifications.  It’s about the company, how you will fit into its teams and culture, influence others and  finally deliver results.

It’s not about you – it’s about them!

Airlines hire future junior pilots with the intention that they will become captains.   Airlines worry about hiring the wrong person because this is one of the most costly mistakes that they can make.   It’s expensive in terms of money, time, market momentum, credibility and emotional energy.  They also worry about the risk to their business and reputation if they entrust their brand to someone who fails to deliver or damages relationships through incompetence or unethical behavior.

You must convince the interviewer that you understand the company and why you are a necessary part of their future.

Tony Hughes writes:

It’s not about you – it’s about them! That’s strange, you’re thinking, they’ve asked me in for an interview and they’re asking questions about me – of course it’s about me! They want to compare me with others. No, they want to know what you can do for them compared with what others can do for them. There is a very important distinction – what can you do for them? Not, tell us everything about you.

Painting by Jaak de Koninck
http://www.jaakdekoninck.be/

5.1  Preparing for your Interviews

5.1.1  Housekeeping

• Ensure your Curriculum Vitae is tailored for the specific job and up to date.  Keep the summary short – no longer than two pages.   A LinkedIn page does not replace a resume.  Focus on your characteristics and capabilities more than your aspirations.  For example  Leadership (responsibility, authority, confidence, courage, vision, organisation, communication).  Confirm your referees are able to support your applications.
• Clean-up / shutdown your social media.  Shutdown inappropriate social media channels.  Remove any embarrassing photos or text.  Be prepared to log on and show your social media pages to your employer

5.1.2  Research

You must prepare and do massive research before your interview:

• Company structure
• Aircraft types, route structures
• Company history, share price over past 10 years
• SWOT analysis
• Knowledge about the industry/sector – 3 major current issues
• What are one/two favorite things about the company – why do you want this job?

5.1.3  Reading

Fledgling pilots should read:

• QF32.  I designed QF32 to be a motivator for and assistance to anyone seeking an aviation career.

Future jet pilots should read:

• “Handling the Big Jets” by D.P. Davies.  Although written in the 1970’s this book contains timeless gems for heavy commercial jet operations.

5.1.4  Tests

You will probably be required to complete psychometric and aptitude testing.

Psychometric tests assess specific personality types, values and beliefs as a measure of motivation and suitability for a specific job.

Aptitude tests measure the ability to perform specific tasks in varying situations and stress.  These tests may include:

• Motor control – basic hand/foot/visual motor coordination and tracking skills.
• Maths, physics, English and comprehension
• Memory –  short and long term memory
• Multi-tasking – perform multiple tasks accurately and under pressure
• Spatial Perception and Orientation

5.2  Interviews

You will be interviewed by a panel of specialists.   Have examples of your situations and experiences that show your ability to:

• solve problems
• show commitment, initiative, leadership
• work with difficult people
• manage upwards when  required

Demeanor

• Be confident, engaging and engaged.
• Be happy to enter a conversations but don’t talk or waffle on about yourself too much.  Remember, it’s not about you!   Show them subconsciously that you understand their problems, what they need and how you can deliver.
• You don’t need to fill in quiet space
• Be prepared for the impossible or tricky questions.  Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll find out”

You have to want to work for them as much as they want you.  So consider asking questions about the:

• culture
• communications, all voices heard/valued
• personal development,
• teams versus the individual,
• promotion
• philanthropy

Third party companies provide courses to help you improve your interview and test results:

• Pinstripe Solutions

6. Career  Development

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Summary

• Aviation has irrevocably changed with the arrival of low value add airlines in our flat globalized world.
• Your rate of promotion in an airline depends upon the health of the aviation industry, your company and your skill sets.
• Pilots are more personally responsible now for their personal and career development than at any time in the past.

A380 Diversion Fuels from London Heathrow (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

A pilot’s life is a never ending journey of  learning and discovery.   The skills that helped you get your airline job won’t keep you there in this fast morphing world.   Your skills have to develop to keep in pace with the industry.  You are responsible (not the company) to ensure that your skill sets develop and diversifies to remain relevant.

You are the master of your destiny.   There are no fairy godmothers who will mentor you and guide you through your career.   However, great things happen when preparation meets opportunity.

6.1  Health – Aviation Industry

The aviation industry has doubled in size every fifteen years since the 1970s.   This growth rate is forecast to continue through to at least about 1940.  (It is forecast to triple from 2011 to 2050)     (Aviation Industry)

The aviation industry also exhibits growth cycles having a 10 to 15 year period.    Try to identify where the industry is currently in relation to the cyclic changes.

Knowing these trends will help you when deciding whether to seek employment (on the upside swing) or complete full time education or military service (on the down side).

6.2  Health – Companies

(Photo Airbus)

Choose your employer carefully.  Your promotion will be limited by the depth and growth of your employer. Promotion will be rapid in an expanding company.

Airlines are financially more challenged now than ever before.   The world’s airlines were expected to return a $3 billion profit in 2012 on $631 billion in revenues. That’s a razor-thin 0.5 per cent margin.” (IATA Jul12)

One analyst put it succinctly:

“the yields are asymptoting to zero!”

This low margin means that the airlines now have little profit remaining after paying dividends to stakeholders to allocate for mentoring pilots and their careers.

Three examples will suffice:

• I joined Qantas as a Second Officer in 1986.  I then spent 18 months as a Second Officer before taking up the First Officer Promotions course.   Today , that same transition (S/O to F/O) is taking up to fourteen years.    Transition from F/O to Captain is taking another 5 years.
• Promotion will be rapid in Lion Air.   Lion Air commenced operations in Indonesia in early 2000 and now has a combined fleet of over 700 aircraft.   Lion Air ordered 234 new aircraft in 2013!    There should be a rapid transition from F/O to Captain.
• Promotion will be rapid in the Middle Eastern airlines for experienced First Officers and Captains.   These airlines require pilots who have in excess of 3,000 hours of jet experience.

6.3  Pilot Skill Sets

THE LANCET – 1918: The skilful pilot appears to anticipate” bumps.”  He is invariably a graceful flyer, never unconsciously throws an undue strain on the machine, just as a good riding man will never make a horse’s mouth bleed.

Sydney Runway 34 with simulated 125 metre minimum visibility required for takeoff (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Do what you love and love what you do.

•  Get used to the concept that your (pilot’s) life will be one of continual practice, learning, development and acquisition of new skills.
• Your employer will expect you to turn up with the right attitude, present to your passengers and “make their day”..  You can’t fake these skills – they are driven by your passions, values and beliefs.  So  understand what you love, then love what you do.  When these actions come from the heart, then they will be honest, contagious, effortless and people will follow you.
• Be skilled up in advance of your next promotion opportunity.   Pass your ATPL subject exams at the earliest opportunity.
• Knowledge, training and experience gives you confidence and courage to face the risks, make the best decisions and hopefully in the worst case survive the events that you had never trained for nor expected.  Your career will stagnate when your skills stagnate.  You must never stop learning for you will never know everything about aviation.  

Sydney Runway 34 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

 Airline initial and recurrent training is now conducted in simulators.   This Airbus video shows how pilots now use many simulation tools on their path to a front seat in the big jets.

Find a senior pilot who will mentor you throughout your career.

Here is your checklist to remain resilient as a pilot in aviation:

• Be ruthlessly and unendingly curious.  Become addicted to and embrace change and learning.  Resist the status quo.   Become immune to the feeling of underconfidence when you are pushed outside your comfort zone.
• Maintain your passion for and literacy in the fields of science and technology:  what you use, how it works, and why it’s necessary.
• Embrace future trends, always looking for opportunities to evolve.
• Read and study and cross reference books, magazines, web sites and trade press.
• Learn from every crash and near miss.
• Socialise with the other pilots when away from home base – don’t retreat to your room to play computer games.
• Join the Royal Aeronautical Society and the Guild of Air Pilots and Navigators and other aviation organisations.  (View this video that details why you should join the RAeS)
• Develop your computer skills.   Learn to code in any computer language as these skills will give you the confidence to be in command and critical of the automated systems that you will have to work with, that will at some time fail.
• Don’t use paper.  Build then continually update your personal Knowledge Management (KM) system which is your repository and cross-reference for your aviation knowledge.  (100% of my aviation knowledge is stored in a structured PC based knowledge management tool that is hyper-linked, indexed and constantly updated.)  Click here for more information about KM systems.
• Be confident flying your aircraft,  Be unafraid of your aircraft.  Wear it like a glove.
• Maintain your hands-on flying skills!  Don’t fall into the trap of believing that hands-on flying skills are not needed in new highly automated aircraft, for your job is to guarantee the safety of your passengers whether your aircraft is stalled, inverted, spinning or on fire (QF32 p 102).  (Proof:  Of the 4269 fatalities from commercial jets between 2003-2012, 39% (1648)  were due to Loss of Control In-flight and 18% (765) during landing! (Boeing Summary August 2013))

6.4 When to Leave

It’s your life, you have limited days left.  None can be repeated.  Take charge of your days.  Don’t waste them!

Damaged lift on QF32’s wing tips (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

It’s difficult to know when it’s the right time to leave one employer for another.   Imagine the situation where you have a great job, friends and lifestyle with your current employer.  The next job offers better conditions, but there are associated risks when you change jobs and it’s very hard to balance up all the factors and decide if and when it’s best to pull up your roots and commit to a new employer.

Here are my thoughts to consider when deciding if it’s time to leave your employer:

• Leave when you are no longer challenged.  Leave when you are no longer learning, broadening your experiences or developing professionally.
• Leave if you do not share the values, ethics, cultures and beliefs of the company.
• Leave it the company does not appreciate your input.

The ultimate test is:  What would you do if you found out today that you had an incurable disease and that you had only a few years left left to live?  Would you stay with your friends in your current mediocre job or move to another job?   Let the answer to this question be your ultimate guide.

It’s your life, you have limited days left.  None can be repeated.  Take charge of your days.  Don’t waste them!

7.   Alternate Career

Security is a swear word!

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Are you are prepared for the unexpected?   Every pilot should have a plan for an alternate (secondary) career in the event that their primary career is halted due to ill health, airline retrenchments or a bad experience.

Four examples suffice:

1. In 1976, my 18 year old friend found that his aviation medical was permanently cancelled after he was knocked unconscious for the second time whilst playing football.  He was subsequently forced to leave the RAAF Academy!
2. I started my computer company shortly after joining my Airline as I calculated that I had a 50% chance of being retrenched in event of an industry down-turn.
3. Hundreds of pilots’ careers came to a quick end as a result of the 1989 Australian pilots’ dispute.
4. Many of my friends have had their aviation medical license permanently revoked (and their aviation careers terminated) due to declining health.

Pilots can purchase “Loss of Licence” insurance in the event that they cannot renew their Aviation Medical Certificate.   However I consider the cost of this prohibitive for the return.

Rather than taking Loss of Licence insurance, I recommend that when you have found your first job in an airline that you study to acquire a backup career in another profession (building, law, finance, computing …).   Ideally choose an alternate career that complements aviation (ie computing, electronics, engineering ..).

You should have an alternate career in reserve in case you decide that aviation is not for you.   You need a backup career so that you do not feel like a prisoner locked in a career that no longer inspires you.   Perhaps:

• you are tired of the stress that accompanies the continual study, simulator checks and route checks
• your body does not handle the time zone changes
• your wife does not like you being away from home and the kids
• your income is not worth the early starts and late finishes
• you become tired of flying

7.1  Security is an illusion

“Security is a swear word!”   I purposely wrote these words in my book QF32 (page 33) because you will never find security in an aerospace career.   Indeed it’s an illusion and counter-productive for those who think that they have it.

Insecurity is the fuel to build resilience.   It’s okay to feel insecure.   It’s positive, healthy and motivating to be aware that you are never safe from risk, and that others would be willing to take your place if given the opportunity.

People respond well to insecurity.  Our minds are biased to fear failure more than we value success.   We fear missing goals and losing opportunities.

Insecurity will keep you on your toes.  It will energise you to seek new opportunities and espouse the best work ethic and to succeed.  Listen to you insecurities and let them power your progress.

So never take anything for granted.  Never stop enhancing and diversifying your skill sets.   The sooner you accept to live with insecurity, the sooner you will take control over your career and your destiny.

7.2 Alternative Careers in Aerospace

Heath Calhoun at the 2013 IPC World Cup, Thredbo (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

Many potential pilots will be disappointed to discover that they are unable to pursue a flying career.  The strict medical, physical and psychological requirements will prevent many aspiring pilots from achieving their dreams.

If you find yourself in this category then do not give up – do not surrender for there are many exciting and rewarding alternative careers in aerospace that are waiting for you – if you jump to the challenge!

never give up – never surrender!

Canberra Grammar Code Cadets (www.codecadets.com)

I recommend that you attend university and complete an engineering degree if you want to embark on a non flying aerospace career.    I recommend a commerce, finance, or law degree if you do not want to complete an engineering degree.

Engineers gain the practical knowledge, skills and experience that engenders courage and the confidence to tackle any aerospace profession. Indeed, engineers appear to dominate in the highest echelons of aviation in leadership, management and specialist areas. An engineering degree will also ensure employment in almost every STEM based industry.

I think the Mechatronics Engineering degree provides the ideal foundation for any aerospace career.

Exciting opportunities exist for university graduates in the following aeronautical industries.  Pick the career that motivates you the most:

• Wing Commander Andy Green and his Bloodhound  (Mach 1.3) Super Sonic Car

  Leadership & Management  (Tom Enders, CEO Airbus is an engineer.   Richard Carcaillet, Head of Strategic Marketing at Airbus is an Aeronautical Engineer.  Simon Ford, head of Alternative Investments at ANZ is an Aeronautical Engineer, Alan Joyce, CEO of Qantas is a mathematician)

• Finance (leasing, venture finance, insurance)  (Most of the infrastructure financiers at (Banque Nationale de Paris)  hold engineering degrees)
• Safety (safety, risk, certification)
• Administration (flight planning, scheduling, crisis management)
• Manufacture (aircraft, simulators, support equipment, UAVs)
• Training (simulator instructor, ground theory instructor, safety, CRM, decision making, teamwork, psychology
• Electronics (simulators, aircraft systems, communications)

• Airservices Aviation Rescue and Fire Fighting fire vehicles welcome home VH-OQA Nancy-Bird Walton at Sydney Airport. (Courtesy AirServices)

  Engineer (airframe, avionics, power-plant, design, performance)

• Computing (automation, robotics, brain in a computer)
• Services (fire, rescue, Air Traffic Control, airports, ground support)
• Military (army, navy, air force, marines)
• Space (rocketry, commercial travel, exploration)
• Research and Development (STEM, renewable power, fusion, power storage, aerodynamics, DARPA, NASA ..)

This list provides a remarkably exciting view into the next generation of career opportunities that will be available for engineering or STEM graduates.

I envy the opportunities that are available for you to choose from and I hope that you jump to the challenge!

8.  Aviation Industry

Back to: Aviation Pathways

2050 – 70% of the world’s population living in megapoles connected by VLA (A380, B747) acft

8.1 Demographics

By 2050, six billion of the world’s 9 billion will be living in regional hubs (megalopolies or megalopoles) separated by about eight hours flying time.  (Alain Garcia, Former Airbus CTO, 2014)

World Traffic Growth by Market (Boeing 2015)

8.2  Industry Growth

The World’s aviation industry has been reliably doubling every 15 years (since 1972).  This growth is expected to continue over the next twenty years. The number of passenger kilometers travelled will triple between 2010 and 2050.

Aviation – Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) (Boeing graph, 2015)

To meet this expected demand, the number of aircraft (in service) will double (from 20k to 42k) and 1,500 aircraft must be built every year through till 2050. (Alain Garcia, Former Airbus CTO, 2014)

Forecast Air Travel Growth 2013 to 2033 (Courtesy Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032)

8.3  Pilot Employment

The overall  number of aircraft will double over the period from 2010 to 2050.

Alexander with Randy Neville (Boeing’s 787 Chief Pilot in the 787 Flight Simularor in Seattle Jan 2012 (Photo Richard de Crespigny)

533,000 new commercial airline pilots will be needed to fly the new aircraft over the next 20 years (2015-2034):   (Boeing Pilot and Technical Market Outlook for 2015)

• Asia Pacific – 216,000
• Europe – 94,000
• North America – 88,000
• Middle East – 55,000
• Latin America – 45,000
• Russia and CIS – 18,000
• Africa – 17,000

8.3.1  Asia

Expect many jet pilot jobs to surface in Asia over the next two decades.   Opportunities in Asia offer young pilots the opportunity to accrue significant jet command hours in a minimum time.  This is a good path to building the command hours you will need to join larger international carriers.

Hans Rosling’s excellent presentation explains the origins of the emerging affluent China and Asia economies.  Draw you own conclusions for opportunities in air travel.

•  Pilot demand in the Asia Pacific region now comprises 41 percent of the world’s needs  (Boeing Pilot and Technical Market Outlook for 2014)
• Asia is now the largest (and fastest growing) air transport market in the world with 948m passengers, followed by North America (808m) and Europe (780·6m) (IATA 2013).
• Asia is the machine driving most of the aviation growth as an estimated 2 billion Asian (and Indian and South American) people increase in prosperity and become eligible to take low cost flights
• 30% of the industry is now based in Asia Pacific (Tony Webber, 2011)
• 45% of aircraft traffic will be in Asia Pacific region in 2050. (Alain Garcia, Former Airbus CTO, 2014)
• 45 new airports are being built in Asia over the next 5 years. (IATA Jun 2011)
• 40% of the worlds cargo market is in Asia  (IATA Jun 2011)
• The worlds largest order of 234 aircraft was recently made in March 2013 by Lion Air of Indonesia, a company that formed only thirteen years ago and currently has 18,000 workers.
• The ASEAN Open Skies Agreement (opening up the Asian markets in 2014) provides benefits and opportunities to access this massive market.
• Japan’s Low Cost aviation market has potential growth of at least 400% over the next few years as Bullet Train Passengers change to faster-cheaper low cost airlines (i.e. Jet Star Japan)  (Deutsche Bank – 2013)
• Hong Kong airport’s two runways were 96% fully utilised in 2013 and will be saturated by 2016.   The airport currently services 370,000 flights over the past 12 months (an average of 65 flights per hour, close to its  upper cap of 68 per hour).  (Norman Lo Shung (Director-General, Civil Aviation Department, Hong Kong, 2013))

Air Traffic growth by region (Courtesy Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032)

Regional

• Airbus forecasts Asia-Pacific to be biggest regional market by 2032.  (AGMF Sep 2013)

Long Haul

• 93%/99% of long haul traffic is/will be flown between 42/90 Aviation Mega Airports in 2013/2032 respectively   (AGMF Sep 2013)

Aircraft Demand by Region. Aircraft aircraft orders (split by size) shows that aviation growth is centered in Asia Pacific & the Middle East (Courtesy Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032)

Asia’s sphere of influence! Aircraft orders shows that aviation growth is tilted towards Asia Pacific & the Middle East (Courtesy Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032)

8.3.2 Middle East

The Middle Eastern airlines are defining aviation’s future for the next 50 years.

The Gulf has established itself as a key aviation hub from the perspective of linking continents by air. 55,000 new commercial airline pilots will be needed over the next 20 years (2013-2032) (Boeing Pilot and Technical Market Outlook for 2014)

The Middle Eastern carriers (Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and Flydubai) placed  a staggering US$162 billion order for aircraft at the Paris Airshow in November 2013.  Emirates placed a US$99 billion order (list prices), the  largest aircraft order in history for 200 aircraft comprising: 35 Boeing 777-8Xs, 115 Boeing 777-9Xs and 50 Airbus A380 aircraft.  

Emirates has so many aircraft on order that they will need 19 new pilots to train EVERY DAY for the next decade to meet demand.

8.3.3  Europe

Overhead London Heathrow at 6 am Sep 2014. (Photo RDC)

94,000 new commercial airline pilots will be needed in Europe and the CIS over the next 20 years (2013-2032)(Boeing Pilot and Technical Market Outlook for 2014)

European aviation is also doubling about every 15 years.  European air traffic controllers are expecting demand to double between 2013 & 2025-30.

In an already congested airspace, controllers are transitioning to four dimensional control (latitude, longitude, altitude, time) .   (Richard Deakin, CEO, NAS, presenting the RAeS Brabazon lecture, Nov 2013)

9.  Aircraft

1. Aircraft production
2. Boeing predictions
3. Airbus forecasts
4. Pilot-Less Aircraft

Back to: Aviation Pathways

9.1. Aircraft Production

Emirates A380 crossing @ 1,800 kilometres per hour 4,000 feet above (RDC)

The demand for and production  of new aircraft is at an all time high:

• This is the busiest year in 15 for maiden flights:  Airbus A350 (June 2013), Boeing 787-9  (Sep 2013) and the Bombardier CSeries (Sep 2013)
• The worlds fleet of 20,000 commercial aircraft will more than double to 42,000 aircraft by 2050  (Alain Garcia, Former Airbus CTO, 2014)
• The newest Airbus A380, Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 aircraft will probably be flying until 2060

9.1.1.   Boeing predictions – next 20 years (Jun 2015)

Source: Boeing

Airlines will need 38,050 new jets worth $5.6 trillion as the world’s fleet doubles over the next 20 years:  (Boeing Long Term Markets)

• 26,730 Single-aisle and 8,830 widebody aircraft
• 40%  to Asia Pacific, 20% to Europe, 20% to North America, 20% to Middle East and rest of world

9.1.2.  Airbus forecasts

(Graph: RDC)

China will displace North America as the world’s largest domestic market before 2024.  Airbus is considering building a short range A330 fine tuned for Chinese domestic routes.  (Airbus Forecast of 2014)

31,400 new aircraft required  (US$4.6 trillion) up until 2033 (next 20 yrs).   The world’s in-service fleet will double:  (Airbus Forecast of 2014)

• 20,000 single isle (up 9% from previous forecast)
• 7,800 twin isle
• 1,500 very large aircraft

9.2.  Pilot-less Aircraft

Commercial aircraft pilots are an endangered species.

9.2.1  Pilot-less aircraft – the threat to pilots

As aircraft auto-flight systems progressively become more reliable and efficient, there will be a point in time where travellers start to trust their lives to pilot-less aircraft.  At that point commercial airline pilots will become an endangered species.

Commercial pilots will ultimately become extinct when the commercial aviation industry moves to fully embrace pilot-less aircraft.

9.2.2  Building resilient pilot-less aircraft

We will only be able to build resilient pilot-less aircraft when we can replicate human consciousness, awareness and prediction in a machine.

We will only be able to build resilient pilot-less aircraft when we can replicate human consciousness, awareness and prediction in a machine.

I do not expect the first sentient machine to be built until about 2025.  It will take another ten to fifteen years to take this design to the production floor.  Until then, it is the pilots who have the only chance to save people during Black Swan events.

The current generation of serial processing computers (Servers, PCs, Apple Macs ..) provide no path to or solution for the creation of sentient machines.  These current machines are neither fault tolerant nor resilient.  Here are two cases of  severe consequences that resulted from simple computer failures in current high technology machines:

• The almost total closure of UK airspace on the 12th December 2014 due to a failure of an air traffic control computer server.
• The failure that led to the crew of an A380 conducting an emergency descent from 40,000 feet  over the Indian ocean on the 1oth December 2014.  Two air conditioning “packs” each contain two air generation systems that supply compressed air to pressurise the A380’s cabin to a cabin altitude no higher than 8,000 feet above sea level.   I think that a failure in the electrical system or the aircraft’s monitoring systems lead to an incorrect signal being generated that commanded both air conditioning packs to shut down!    (A similar failure has caused the same result on a Boeing 747.)

The human brain is at least 20,000 times more power efficient than the TrueNorth chip “brain”.

Machines must mimic the parallel processing capabilities of the human mind to be able to host human thought, awareness and behaviour.  These machines do not currently exist.

IBM’s TrueNorth processor chip provides an infantile  start for our quest to build neuromorphic and cognitive systems.  The TrueNorth processor requires 70 miliwatts of power to run 5.4b transistors, providing 4,000 (parallel) cores that each host 256 Neurons and 65,000 synapses.

The human brain is at least 20,000 times more power efficient than an equivalent TrueNorth “brain”.    Human brains need 20 watts of energy to power twenty (plus) trillion neurons and 100 trillion synapses.    We need to assemble 100 racks of 4,096 TrueNorth chip arrays to match the number of synapses in the human brain.   These racks would require 400 kilowatts of power, 66% of the output from the electrical generators on board an Airbus A380, enough to power 800 average homes, enough to power 20,000 human brains!

9.2.3  Marketing pilot-less aircraft

“Crossing the Chasm” – the Bible of innovation by Geoffrey Moore

It’s easy to suggest that we will be flying in pilot-less aircraft.   The aircraft will eventually be built.   Innovative airlines will buy them.   Adventurous passengers will fly them, adventurers similar to those who will rocket into space on board Virgin Galactic.  But how quickly will the pilot-less market transition to include the John Doe on “main street”.

Are you ready to board a pilot-less aircraft?

Technical ideas are free.  It’s the execution that’s priceless.

Many excellent technologies that deserve to persist, die in adolescence due to poor strategy and marketing.   Course “Technical Marketing Strategy 101″ starts with learning how to “cross the technological chasm”.

The “Law of Diffusion of Innovation” explains how high technology products are accepted into society.   High tech developers who ignore this law, do so at their peril.

The Law of Diffusion is expressed in a bell curve.  This bell curve shows the stages in the lifespan of a technical product.  It starts with the initial take-up by tech adventurers, risk takers and “product disciples”.  It finishes when the last product expires in the few hands of the last technology laggards.

A “chasm” blocks and confronts the product as it tries to grow and expand into new markets.

High risk innovators and early adopters are the first to support new products.  These confident people are the risk takers in leading edge industries. They wanted to be the first to explore and benefit from new technologies.

The Early Majority or “main street” users are the next group of users to accept a product as it gains acceptance.   These “main street” people exhibit a slower, more rational, methodical and risk averse approach towards accepting a new product.

These Early Adopter and Early Majority markets are like oil and vinegar – they don’t mix.   A chasm in values and beliefs separates them.   They espouse different levels of confidence and courage.  They take different risks.  So both markets must be approached differently.   Your product will stall and probably fail if you don’t distinguish between them and adjust your marketing strategy to progressively target each sequential group.

The chasm is a “killing zone” in the life span of a product.  This kill zone separates those products that are initially accepted only by the few passionate (read high risk) innovators and early adopters, from those products that continue to be accepted by the majority of the populations that are sceptical, unemotional, analytical, price-conscious and sometimes lazy.

Products fail to gain widespread acceptance when the manufacturers ignore the the technological chasm.

• The Segway fly-by-wire scooter failed to be accepted by the early majority market because the Segways were never granted safe operating areas to share with existing roads and footpaths.  The result is that the Segway market remains bogged in the small innovator and early adopter markets.
• Apple’s iPhone provides a case study of a product that was expertly designed and marketed to cross the chasm.

9.2.4   The future for pilot-less aircraft

Pilot-less aircraft will be introduced into our society just like any other high technology offering.

How well consumers accept pilot-less aircraft will be determined by the ability of the aircraft manufacturers and airlines to build and retain the travelling public’s trust in high technology.

Manufacturers that respect the Law of Diffusion will set in place many strategic processes to sequentially win the minds of the many markets.

The acceptance of new pilot-less aircraft will follow the bell curve of success over time:

• Innovators and early adopters will be the first to experiment and trial pilot-less aircraft.
• The “main street” users will avoid these aircraft until emotional, financial and safety case studies prove the technology to be established and safe.
• Twenty five percent of the travelling population have a fear of flying.   It will be a massive challenge to get these people to board a pilot-less aircraft.
• Laggards will only board pilot-less aircraft when no alternatives exist.

A safety case cannot logically be used to force the aircraft industry to be the first industry to be fully autonomous.   On average, 500 people die in commercial aviation world-wide every year. Contrast this number with the 1,500,000 people who die on the roads.     If non-tolerance for the loss of life becomes the motivator for change, then expect the car industry to be the first industry to go driver-less.

9.2.5   Pilot-less aircraft – Summary

Relax aspiring pilots!  There will be a sustained need for your skills well up until 2060.

The forecast aircraft deliveries for Boeing and Airbus aircraft shown above are all for piloted aircraft.  You will be flying these aircraft that will have a commercial life expectancy of at least 50 years.

The pilot and his piloted aircraft, like every other technology, will ultimately become extinct.  Extinction however will not occur during this century.  In the interval, more piloted aircraft will be developed (future new plastic Boeing 737,  Boeing 777X,  future new plastic A320)  that will continue to delay the extinction date by a further 50 years.  (For those who wonder, the Earth has sufficient gas reserves (that can be converted to any hydrocarbon based fuel) to last for 250 years.)

Like all technologies, the airline industry will ultimately accept pilot-less aircraft.  However this trend will be predictable and take an extraordinary long time. Do not expect to see pilot-less aircraft in commercial passenger operations until the first innovators and early adopters test the market probably some time after 2035.

The chasm will block the first attempts to take the pilot-less aircraft into the main street markets.   Companies that ignore the  challenges of the chasm will fail.  The first automated vehicles will be cars on shared roads and then low risk-consequence cargo aircraft on oceanic routes.

Boeing, Airbus and other aircraft manufacturers are currently researching pilot-less aircraft.     They have united to research the “Advanced Cockpit for Reduction Of streSS and workload” project (ACROSS).   ACROSS will form foundation for future proprietary and confidential research.  Expect to read more information about these topics only when the product patents and futures are in place.

Additional reading – pilot-less aircraft:

• freight aircraft
• commercial passenger aircraft
• air force fighter aircraft
• Who’s flying this thing? End in sight for pilots

10.  Life Plan

Ideas are free, execution is priceless.  So get out there.  Never give up!  Failure is not an option!  Be strong! Shine!  FLY!

Back to: Aviation Pathways

Though I am not qualified to advise others about how to plan their lives, I list some of my thoughts below in case they might help others.   My observations have been gleaned from discussions  with pilots throughout their lives, noting the types of plans that succeeded, and those that did not succeed.

We all want to be happy, yet not all of us are.  True happiness inspires us to get out of bed every morning, to make meaningful connections with other people and to enjoy the opportunity that each day brings.

Happiness cannot be bought or given – it has to be earned.   You have to commit to and invest in happiness before you can expect any rewards.  The top four keys to happiness are:

• good health,
• dignity
• meaningful work/purpose, and
• love.

When you acquire these keys, you will find the comfort that comes from leading a full and rewarding life.  You will be a giver to the world you have inherited, not a taker, and you will understand how to contribute to improving our world.  You will also have the confidence to ride through life’s vicissitudes of successes and failures.

Note: These keys assume that we satisfy our basic:

• physiological needs for food, sleep, warmth, and sex, and
• security needs for a home, job and physical protection.

10.1   Good Health

Our four brains (RDC)

Pilots start their careers with good health.   You must strive to remain healthy not just for your career’s benefit, but also for your happiness and personal well-being.  Keep fit, establish a healthy diet, and socialise.

THE LANCET – 1918:   When they have finished flying for the day their favourite amusements are theatres, music (chiefly rag-time), cards, and dancing, and it appears necessary for the  well-being of the average pilot that he should indulge in a  really riotous evening at least once or twice a month. 

A pilot’s life is one of continual study, learning and development.  It is a life of annual licence recertification tests and transitions to operate many different and increasingly complex aircraft types.  Your ability to successfully negotiate these challenges depends upon your brain’s ability to be “plastic” – its ability to learn, adapt, form and cross-link new memories and practices.

Study and exercise protects our mind, memory and movement.

Keep your brain healthy.  Balanced servings of nutrition, sleep, exercise, reading, thinking, study and Deliberate Practice make up the ingredients for a healthy brain.

• Deep (non-dreaming) sleep is essential for learning.  Brain neurons (that resolve recent experiences and learning) are created during the early stages of sleep.
• Dreaming sleep is important for memory retention.  This is the period when recent memories are rationalised (retained or overwritten) and cross-linked (think hyperlinked) and made accessible broadly.
• Exercise promotes the generation of new grey matter – neurons that increase memory capacity.

• Coral honing her favorite coordination skills

  Keep thinking.   Exercise and mindful study stimulate the Oligodendrocytes in our brain to coat axons with fatty white coloured Myelin (white matter).  Myelin insulates and protects these “hyperlinking” axons and thus protects our memories and physical coordination from atrophy, short circuits and eventual collapse.

• Keep practicing.  Deliberate Practice  is essential for improving mental and physical performance.   Deliberate Practice converts slow and mindful procedures into dedicated fast, subconscious and instinctive circuits in the prefrontal cortex.
• Physical and mindful exercise is also thought to influence the onset of diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS).

10.2   Dignity

Every person needs dignity and respect.  You must however act respectfully to be respected.

Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King & Mahatma Gandhi  understood the “WHY” that underpinned their core values and beliefs, maintained their dignity, put others first, and as a result, peacefully changed the world.    Wouldn’t we all like to be this fearless.

• Honesty is the simplest path to self-respect.
• Recognise your individuality and potential.  Ask yourself “have I lived wisely?” – if not, then why not?.

• Work hard and don’t be afraid to fail.   Indeed welcome failure for the lessons and wisdom that it provides.  Accept the hard realities of life, even unfairness.  When life is not going your way, avoid focusing inwards and harnessing anger and regret.   Instead, keep your morale and ambitions high, look ahead, work hard and continually challenge yourself.    Perceive what others see as obstacles as motivators that power and direct your persistence.
• Be kind to, and find good in yourself and others.  Take yourself out of the center for you do not matter!   It’s what you can do for others (particularly friends, partners and the disadvantaged)  that counts, not what others can do for you!

10.3  Meaningful Work/Purpose

Be the master of your destiny

Meaningful work/purpose consists of:

• being a master of your own fate rather than at the mercy of others,
• doing every day what you love and excel at,
• keeping a positive attitude to perceive problems as challenges to overcome,
• getting encouragement and support to develop your skills,
• being respected for your action and opinions, and
• giving back and serving to help others.

Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life” (Confucius)

Be the master of your destiny.  You only live once so ensure that you retain control otherwise live the life you want.   A survey by PARADE magazine and Yahoo! Finance in 2012 identified that about 60% of the Americans surveyed fully regretted their career choices.  Their senses of purpose, dignity, happiness and well-being suffered and they suffered stress because they were living out someone else’s dreams and aspirations, not their own.  Don’t let this happy to you!

Work hard, stay positive, and get up early. It’s the best part of the day (George Allen)

For parents of future aviators, the most important thing you can do is to encourage you children to discover their own passions, then to enable your children to pursue their passions.    Don’t spoon feed your children, rather help them clarify their thoughts, help them develop their plans, then be a catalyst to help them help themselves.  (See also Motivating our Youngest Generation)

“Too many of us are not living our dreams because we are living our fears.”  (Les Brown)

For the aviators reading this, your task is to get your aviation licences, flying experience and with these requisites gain access to a satisfying aviation job.  Your mission throughout is to maintain your motivation to excel. Aviation breeds passion, excitement, engagement and growth:

“Equilibrium is the precursor to death!”

Work hard.    Identify a few special areas to focus your skills on that you can someday look back on with a different sense of pride.  Then you will to feel great both now and later.

“Build your own dreams, or someone else will hire you to build theirs.”  (Farrah Gray)

Work with your “heroes” instead of starting out alone:

• Find a person who will be your mentor.  You have insufficient time and resources in aviation to learn everything from your own mistakes.
• Join a team.  You will gain knowledge and experience more quickly as an “apprentice” in a successful team than when you work alone.  Indeed joining  a passionate and successful company and doing what you really want to do in your life might be even more rewarding than continuing with a Master or Ph.D degree.

You must act respectably if you want to be respected:

• Act like a CEO, because that’s what you are in your aircraft – not a back office employee.
• Be present.  Meet, greet and talk to your passengers – don’t hide behind the flight deck door.  Empathise with the crew and passengers, ensuring that their interests are at the center of all your thoughts and actions (the WHY).
• Be happy, fun and positive!  You control the attitude that you project.   Indeed, the Captain sets the atmosphere for the passengers and crew on every flight!   Make your attitude an award winning and world famous attitude that welcomes others and “makes their day”.
• Be honest.  Tell passengers the truth (full and open disclosure) and be prepared to give a personal guarantee.
• Always expect and plan for the unexpected – that’s what your passengers expect!  Never admit to being bored in an aircraft because others will think that you are not thinking about and preparing for the unexpected.    Would you like hearing brain surgeons telling you that they get bored during their surgeries?
• Be confident but modest (even vulnerable) for you never know it all.   Indeed the minute that you think you know everything  is the second before you do something really stupid.   There is a health benefit from being confident.  Highly extroverted people have more active inflammation-immune systems and thus recover faster from injury than introverted people.
• And when it becomes your turn, give time to help others just as others have helped you.

Never procrastinate.   “Do it now!”   “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now”

Be safe.  If you are not committed to safety then we don’t want you in the pilot’s seat.  It’s the pilots’ responsibility to ensure that every passenger has the opportunity to meet their loved ones at their destination.   When you begin flying, one bad decision to continue flying into bad weather could cost you your career and/or your life.  However when you command the big jets, your responsibility widens to include the lives of up to a six hundred souls. And for every fatality there is about seventy other friends and loved ones who become entangled in the tragedy.

I will prepare and some day my chance will come – Abraham Lincoln

Please read my later blogs:

• Torches
• Why I am a Pilot

10.4  Love

The essence of life is to love and to be loved.  Love is the catalyst to our emotional well-being.

For junior aviators, I recommend that you wait until your aviation career is kick-started before you  do get “hitched”.

Don’t be afraid to take risks early on in your career.   Expect and embrace failures in your early years.  For knowledge, experience and growth often comes from adversity and it’s better to take risks and advance your aviation career as quickly and selfishly as possible before family commitments steers your career choices.

The pilot’s life opens up exciting opportunities to travel and to meet many remarkable people.   But your career path requires great sacrifices (financial, mental and physical) before the good positions become available.   You might need to position to remote areas or to Asia and the Middle East to gain flying experience (hours). It is a special person who can happily settle into the life of the pilot’s spouse. So as a fledgling pilot, take your time, socialise outside aviation and find the best person who you love, is confident and independent.

Your priorities should/will change when you become married.  Your responsibilities will widen to include your spouse, marriage and career.

The most important things cannot be seen with the eyes but with the heart  (Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince)

Where your career was priority one in your early years, your career now shifts down into second place as your family responsibilities increase.   By this stage you will probably have spent the previous 15 years working hard to develop your skills, experience and to ascend the aviation ladder.  Half of your rewards for these efforts are lost if you end up divorced.

Work just as hard at your marriage to ensure that you don’t end up like this Chinese couple.  Your partner must grow and develop independently as you grow and develop.  He/she must be happy to support any children at home alone whilst you travel abroad.

Fulfillment comes from making a difference and knowing that it will carry on.  It starts with a sense of belonging and responsibility to give and self-sacrifice for others.  It starts with being part and contributing to your extended families: having loving relationships, rearing great kids and changing others lives for the better.

Coming home!(Painting by Coplu)

My wonderful wife Coral has clear priorities.  When our children were about ten years old.  A friend asked Coral what her priorities were in life.   Coral’s answer surprised him:

1. my husband,
2. my children, then
3. myself.

Coral reasoned that if she looked after me, that two parents would do a better job of raising our children that one parent.   She also understood that she would be left at home with “just her husband” as company when the children grew up and left home.

11. Money

Back to: Aviation Pathways

I have saved this subject for last, because it is the subject that least motivates me.

My career aspirations have never been motivated by money.

I have observed that those who are obsessed with money never achieve a healthy perspective of “how much is enough”.  They continually grasp for more, compare their wealth to others, and so are ultimately never content.

I have worked hard throughout my entire career,  thrown security to the wind and taken every opportunity that was within my grasp. I have found that the skills that I have acquired along my journey have value and are appreciated in many industries. From passion, commitment and perseverance comes skill, and from skill comes rewards. This is my career and I would not trade it for any desk job!

• Click here for an overview of some pilots’ salaries.
• Why are pilots paid so little in the United States of America?

12.  Where from Here?

Back to: Aviation Pathways

12.1  School Students

As a school student, you will have to acquire many skills to be qualified for an aviation career. Focus your efforts to excel at school.

Put emphasis on mathematics and science subjects (physics first, then chemistry).

Participate in team sports to keep fit and develop leadership and teamwork skills. Join cadet programs if possible.

The military cadet programmes provide a great way to learn about the military, but are probably only worth the effort if that is where your interests lie.

Don’t be afraid of technology.  Disassemble printers, computers and hard disks before discarding them to discover how they function. Any experience with engines (motor cycles, cars, workshops, books, aero clubs) is also recommended.  You should be confident manipulating and working with machinery.  Never be afraid to play with or fix engines.

Be medically examined by a Designated Aviation Medical Examiner (DAME) to confirm that you are fit (medical and eyes) enough to hold an aviation medical certificate.

Virgin Galactic’s 3rd Supersonic flight – 10 Jan 2014 (Image: Virgin Galactic)

Create a file that contains information about the airlines that you wish to join and/or the military.   Visit their web sites.

Document what aircraft they fly.  Research their employment requirements for air crew.

If your heart is set on flying light aircraft, then take an introductory flight at a flying school at a nearby airfield.  This is normally free of charge.

Get a part time job over the weekends to raise money to continue flying if you want to build up more flying experience. Take every opportunity to fly in one of the front seats.   These flights will increase your motivation at this early stage.

12.2 Before your Interview

• Prepare for your interview
• Read every aviation book that you can find.    Read my book.  Digest the stories and build up your knowledge of the industry for aviation is a knowledge intensive high tech industry that will never stagnate.
• Ask your friends and family to give you aviation books for birthdays and special events.

13. Summary

Back to: Aviation Pathways

(Photo: Lee Gatland)

Emily Redmond, thank you for your question (at the top of this article).    I hope that I have helped to answer some of your queries.

Be strong! Shine!  FLY!

Never give up on your dreams, for the rewards are commensurate with the risks and opportunities you take as your career progresses.    Fulfilling careers await for those who are brave enough to find them and and who rise to the challenges. Security is both a swear word and an illusion.

Where and what you end up flying depends upon your strong sense of self, what opportunities you constantly seize along your passionate journey to learn and develop, and understanding that change is constant.

Aviation is not an easy career choice.  You’ll have to learn and research for every day of your career, face the mental challenge of continual re-certification and physical challenges of working extreme hours and perhaps sometimes in extremely risky locations.

Both switches miust be pushed to activate the fuel jettison. (Photo R de Crespigny)

A pilot’s work is never a job.  Pilot’s work is a life.  You will never succeed in aviation unless you develop the passion and hunger to research and plan your career and do whatever it takes to achieve your plan.   It’s your plan, so own and execute it..

Great rewards await the intrepid amongst us who take the risk and jump to the challenges of flight.  Maybe you will be one of them.   Maybe you will experience the delights of this Boeing 737 pilot.

Anything is possible if you have the mindset and the will and desire to do it and put the time in (Roger Clemens)

There is a piloting job waiting for every person who has the health, intelligence, drive, and commitment to forge their way into this leading edge, high tech, high risk career.

The graphs in Section Seven suggest that the aviation industry will continue to double every 15 years . Discuss the topics I have listed here with other pilots and your mentor.

Ask opinions from retired pilots who have successfully navigated a lifetime of aviation’s challenges.   These old and wise pilots are the true heroes, with memories laced with nuggets of wisdom gleaned from occasional  errors in judgement and experiences surviving  fate’s unexpected and unthinkable events.    These mentors deserve your highest respect, for they are the world’s best risk experts who worked day-in, day-out, flying along the edges of chaos in the most leading edge, high tech and risky industry, all the time protecting their passengers from harm.

If I have had good foresight and luck in my career, it is only because I have been standing on the shoulders of these past aviation giants. If you could be so fortunate …..

Celebrating the wonders of flight. View from  my desk, 36,000 feet overhead Broome, Australia, 5th March 2015 (RDC)

I have been very fortunate during my life to have received much from family and friends.  It is my turn now, my privilege and duty to give back to the younger.     My final mentoring support comes from the last paragraph in Jim Collins great book on Level 5 Leadership, entitled “Good to Great”:

Jess Gallagher – 2014 Sochi Paralympic Games skier (slalom & giant slalom)

“When all these pieces [of advice] come together, not only does your work move towards greatness, but so does your life.  For in the end it’s impossible to have a great life without having a meaningful life.  And it’s very hard to have a meaningful life without meaningful work.  Perhaps then, you might gain that rare tranquility that comes from knowing that you’ve had a hand in creating something of intrinsic excellence that makes a contribution.   Indeed you might also gain that deepest of all satisfactions knowing that your short time here on earth has been well spent and that it mattered”.

Many people in their deathbeds reflect back over their past and ask just three questions:

• Did I live wisely?,
• Did I love unconditionally?, and
• Did I matter (serve greatly and make a difference)?

As a fledgling pilot you can look forward to an aviation career that offers you the ability to seize the joy and excitement in every day of your life and to answer “YES!” to all three questions.

If you need a role model, then look no further than Dave Goldberg, who ticked all these boxes.  Will someone write this about you when you are gone?   If not, then WHY not, and HOW will you change?

Coral – the Wind Beneath My Wings ….

Coral and I send our very best wishes to you as you embark on your safe, happy and fulfilling career.    I promise you fun and rewards and that you will matter!

Ideas are free, execution is priceless.  So get out there.   It won’t be easy.  Never give up!   When you get knocked down, you will get back up again.   Failure is not an option.  Be strong.  Shine.  FLY!

14.  For More Information

Back to: Aviation Pathways

At QF32.Aero:

• “Torches“
• Motivating our Youngest Generation
• Giving Back – Code Cadets
• The Golden Circle
• Why I am a Pilot

Other Reading:

• David Learmount’s excellent blog detailing how to enter into an aviation career.     (David and I clearly think alike!)
• Pilot Cadet Programs
• RAeS – Career Flightpath Magazine 2013
• RAeS – Graduate Placements 2014

Other Pilot’s Experiences:

• A day in the life of an airline pilot   (Click here to view Eric’s blog)

Feedback

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